I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook. Do watch the video each day. It shows you yesterday's trades (a great retrospective learning tool) and previews expectations for today, and the ideal matches to home in on (particularly if you are left on your own - this is my day off in lieu of working a full weekend). I may appear on Telegram later. Dortmund v the Hoff could be a classic (as in Keystone Cops); Espanyol have had 2 consecutive 0-0's. Look for that to end; newly promoted Venezia - are they up against it again in Italy?; and another newly promoted side Dragovaljac just keep getting spanked in Croatia.
French Ligue 1
20:00 - Nantes v Lyon - 1.80 Lyon
- 1st goal: Nantes have scored first in 8/12 home matches against bottom-six teams while Lyon have conceded first in 7/11 away matches against top-half teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Lyon away matches against top-half teams.
- Draw, Win, Loss for Nantes, whose sole win came at home.
- Draw, Loss, Draw for Lyon. 2 score draws. Lyon have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 2 matches.
Spanish La Liga Primera
19:00 - Mallorca v Espanyol - 2.62 Mallorca
- -2.5 goals: Top-six promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 70% of home matches against promoted teams since 2016-17. Middle-third promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 58% of away matches against promoted teams since 2016-17. Middle-third promoted teams have conceded first in 55% of away matches against promoted teams since 2016-17.
- Draw, Win for Mallorca.
- 2 0-0's for Espanyol. I would expect this 0-0 sequence to end.
- Mallorca have scored a single goal in their 2 matches.
21:15 - Valencia v Alaves - 1.91 Valencia
- Match outcome: Valencia have won 7/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while Alaves have lost 8/9 away matches against top-six teams. Valencia have had W/W double results in 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams.
- 2 home matches for Alaves, 2 defeats. This is their first away match.
- Win, Draw for Valencia who are yet to concede that 2nd goal. Good trade for us last match with a last gasp penalty equaliser.
19:30 - Dortmund v Hoffenheim - 1.44 Dortmund
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 B. Dortmund home matches against top-six teams and in 13/20 Hoffenheim away matches. Hoffenheim have conceded first in 7/9 away matches against top-half teams.
- 5-2 win and 2-1 loss for Dortmund in their 2 matches. Both teams scored. No 0-0 at halftime.
- 0-4 win and 2-2 for the Hoff. Good start for them. 6 goals scored. This is going to be a humdinger. Unreadable but a humdinger. What was with Dortmund's defeat to a mediocre Freiburg? Down to a full house at home?
Italian Serie A
17:30 - Udinese v Venezia - 1.67 Udinese
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 10/12 Udinese home matches and they have drawn the first half in 8/13 home matches. Promoted teams have conceded first in 66% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2016-17.
- Venezia showed us they will struggle this season when losing 2-0 to 10 man Napoli.
- 2-2 for Udinese v Juventus in their opener, saw a late apparent Ronaldo Juve winner scrubbed off for offside.
- If they carry on in this vein, against newly promoted, and at home again, then the odds look right for Udinese.
19:45 - Verona v Inter Milan - 1.60 Inter Milan
- 1st goal: Verona have conceded first in 8/9 home matches against top-six teams while Inter Milan have scored first in 13/20 away matches. Inter Milan have won 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams.
- 2-3 loss to Sassuolo for Verona. Emphatic 4-0 win for Inter Milan v Genoa - who needs Lukaku?
- Verona's loss was compounded by a red card.
Portuguese Primeira Liga
19:00 - Belenenses v Moreirense - 2.70 Belenenses
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/12 Belenenses home matches and in 8/10 Moreirense away matches against bottom-six teams. Moreirense have drawn the first half in 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- Leave 2.7 the favourite to the in-play stats.
21:15 - Estoril v Maritimo - 2.25 Estoril
- -2.5 goals: Top-six promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 55% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2016-17. There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Maritimo away matches against promoted teams. Maritimo have conceded first in 10/14 away matches.
- Win, Draw, Win for Estoril conceding only once. Wins came away. 0-0 at home. Loss, Win, Draw for Maritimo.Both teams have scored last 2 and a confidence boosting 1-1 v Porto latest saw them shut Porto out 2nd half. An interesting match up therefore. Tricky pre-match puzzled solved via the in-play stats?
19:00 - Fortuna Sittard v RKC Waalwijk - 2.05 Fortuna Sittard
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 14/18 Sittard home matches and +3.5 goals in 10/18 Sittard home matches. Waalwijk have lost 13/20 away matches.
- 2-1 Sittard win v Twente in their opener. An excellent start. 1-0 win v AZ Alkmaar and 3-2 loss v Heerenveen. Both sides picking up an 'unexpected' win. Anomaly? Or a sign of improvement?
Belgian 1st Division A
19:45 - Kortrijk v Mechelen - 2.37 Kortrijk
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 KV Kortrijk home matches against middle-third teams and +3.5 goals in 5/8 KV Kortrijk such matches. KV Mechelen have conceded first in 8/10 away matches against top-six teams.
- Win, Win, Loss, Loss, Win for Kortrijk and Win, Loss, Loss, Loss, Win for Mechelen. No strong patterns yet.
- Mechelen have conceded in all matches. Kortrijk failed to score in only one away match.
- Mechelen have failed to score in their 2 away matches.
- 2.37 the favourite about sums this one up. Tricky.
Danish Super League
18:00 - AaB Aalborg v Nordsjaelland - 2.05 AaB Aalborg
- 1st goal: Aalborg BK have scored first in 6/10 home matches against top-half teams while Nordsjaelland have lost the first half in 6/10 away matches against top-half teams. Nordsjaelland have conceded first in 7/10 away matches against top-half teams.
- Only 1 loss for AaB came v Champions Midtjylland. AaB have kept 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
- 2 wins in 3 matches.
- A single loss for Nord came first match. Since then, a 0-0 and 4 wins. That 0-0 was the only match Nord failed to score in.
- This Friday coupon is a toughie. Maybe they know it's my day off. Both sides have been hitting form of late and collecting wins of late. I cannot therefore discount Nordsjaelland.
16:30 - Seinajoen v Haka - 1.80 SJK
- 1st goal: SJK have conceded first in 13/18 home matches while FC Haka have won 6/9 away matches against top-half teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 11/20 SJK home matches.
SJK - 5th
- Only home losses have come v 1st and 2nd.
- 8 wins have come v teams 6th and lower.
- 3 goals scored in last 3 home matches, 2 of the wins were 3-2.
- 9/12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Haka - 10th
- 3 away wins v 2nd, 4th and 11th.
- 2 wins in last 3 matches.
- 8 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
- Strange form for Haka, all wins bar 1 has come away and they have beaten 2nd and 4th away, and have 2 wins in 3 recent matches so, despite SJK looking red hot at home and away v 6th and lower, we are not sure which Haka will turn up. Shock win away last away match v a solid Lahti may throw a spanner in the works. This Friday coupon is relentless in delivering less than straightforward matches.
19:00 - Slaven Belupo v Dragovoljac - 1.40 Slaven Belupo
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 12/17 Slaven Belupo home matches and they have drawn the first half in 7/12 home matches. Bottom-half promoted teams have conceded first in 75% of away matches against bottom-half teams since 2016-17.
- We may, though, have the first straightforward match here.
- All defeats for newly promoted Dragovaljac, conceding 3 goals at least away.
- 1-2 and 1-1 at home for Slaven Belupo who look poor. Win, Loss, Draw, Draw, Loss, Loss but this is a case of Dragovaljac being the worst of a bad bunch.
Russian Premier League
14:30 - Ural v Rostov - 2.20 Rostov
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 9/10 FC Ural home matches and in 14/20 FC Rostov away matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 7/12 FC Rostov away matches against bottom-six teams.
- Ural have failed to score in 4/5 matches. 1-1 at home came v newly promoted Nizhny. Poor form to date.
- Ural have conceded in all matches and are on a 2 match 1-0 loss run.
- Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss, Win for Rostov. Their sole win came v Nizhny, and saw Rostov come from behind. Both teams have scored in Rostov's last 4 matches.
- If Rostov can score, they'll have a chance if Ural continue to struggle to score.
- Certainly if Ural score first, should we expect them to follow up? I am not sure. They could be layable if leading here.
16:30 - Khimki v Nizhny Novgorod - 2.00 Khimki
- 1st goal: FC Khimki have scored first in 9/12 home matches while top-half promoted teams have conceded first in 67% of away matches against bottom-six teams since 2016. Top-half promoted teams have lost the first half in 60% of away matches against bottom-six teams since 2016.
- Nizhny are newly promoted and therefore could be anything.
- Loss, Draw, Draw for Khimki at home, both teams scoring and the loss coming v Zenit. That was not unexpected.
- Nizhny started well in this new league for them. Win, Draw, Win, Loss, Loss. The 2 consecutive losses came at home. A sign that the tougher league is catching them out? Nizhny have scored in all matches and scored and conceded last 4 matches.
- An argument to lay Nizhny if they score first? The only time they scored 2 goals was v a Champions League distracted Spartak Moscow.
17:00 - Dynamo Moscow v Lokomotiv Moscow - 2.15 Dynamo Moscow
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 13/20 D. Moscow home matches and in 6/9 Lok. M. away matches against top-six teams. Lok. M. have drawn the first half in 10/15 away matches against top-six teams.
- Moscow derby and I do tend to avoid derbies. Both sides may play above their form.
18:30 - Krasnodar v Rubin Kazan - 1.61 Krasnador
- 1st goal: Krasnodar have conceded first in 7/8 home matches against top-six teams while Rubin Kazan have won 6/9 away matches against bottom-half teams. Rubin Kazan have drawn the first half in 7/12 away matches.
- Win, Loss, Loss, Win, Loss for KRasnador. They failed to score only once.
- Their only clean sheet came first match.
- 3-2-2 goals conceded by Krasnador recently may worry 1.61 backers, particularly as they play a Rubin Kazan side unbeaten this season.
- 3 wins and 2 1-1 draws for Rubin Kazan is solid enough. Both teams have scored last 3 matches and Rubin are yet to concede that 2nd goal.
- There is no evidence to suggest Krasnador deserve this 1.61 quote but I must respect it, but look at Rubin's unbeaten form this season. It's been dismissed by the market makers! A match worth following via the in-play stats.