A number of readable matches today. Fulham should have too much for Sunderland; Hoff in rude health; AIK in Sweden should nail Sirius. From a tennis perspective, a focus on Goffin, Wozniacki and Dimitrov may pay out. These 3 are trading at high odds in-play and winning. Read Goffin's recent exploits. Halep is another to focus on. Pliskova v Ostapenko looks a cracker and a default lay the first set winner? These 2 are in such excellent clay form.
19:45 - Fulham v Sunderland - 1.26 Fulham
- 1-0 Sunderland earlier in the season.
- 2 matches remain this season.
- Must wins in the remaining matches given automatic promotion is on the line.
- 5 recent 0-0's had halftime were not 0-0 at fulltime.
- 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Unbeaten in 22 and 14 at home.
- Scored in all of those matches.
- 7 0-0's at halftime at home (32%).
- 21 goals scored at home last 1/2 hour of matches.
- Need Bolton to lose their remaining 2 matches and need to win their remaining 2 matches in order to stay up.
- Scored and conceded last 6 matches without winning.
- Only 2 wins this year.
- Conceded in their last 16 matches.
- Must wins for both sides for vastly different reasons. The form is with Fulham here by some margin. Yes the 'West Brom' factor may see Blunderland land the double but realistically they are not likely to get a sniff v a team with 5 clean sheet in 6 matches and scoring in their last 22 matches, all unbeaten.
FRENCH LIGUE 1
19:45 - Montpellier v St. Etienne - 2.66 Montpellier
- On the face of it, the market finds it tough to split these 2. I did profit from St Etienne last weekend so will research.
- 0-1 Montpellier last head to head.
- Only 1 win in 8 matches saw 2 losses last 2 matches.
- Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches at home.
- 7 0-0's at halftime at home (42%).
- 4 draws and a win at home v top 5.
- Unbeaten in 12 matches.
- 0-0-1-1-0-0 conceded recent away matches.
- Scored in their last 12 matches.
- 7 0-0's at halftime away (42%).
- Only 1 win home and away v top 8.No win away v top 7.
- 11 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- St Etienne's solid recent form but poor form v top 8 home and away puts a question mark over which St. E turns up today. Montpellier are unbeaten v top 6 at home albeit 4 draws.
- Now we know why the market has the favourite at 2.66 odds.
- On ultra recent form, we'd have to side with St Etienne not losing but please note their strong 2nd half scoring so perhaps lay any Montpellier lead if they do lead at halftime, at the start of the 2nd half.
19:30 - Hoffenheim v Hannover - 1.36 Hoffenheim
- 1-0 and 2-0 Hannover in the last 2 head to heads.
- Unbeaten in 8 matches.
- 4 wins in 5 home matches.
- Scored 2+ goals in 6 of their last 7 matches.
- Scored in their last 16 matches and last 15 at home.
- No 0-0 at home.
- 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
- Unbeaten at home v 9th and lower.
- 22 of 32 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- Scored first in 13/15 at home.
- Only 6 points above the relegation zone.
- Only 1 win in 9 matches.
- No win in 10 away.
- Conceded in their last 16 and last 14 away.
- No win away v the top 10.
- Scored and conceded in 7/9 matches away v top 11.
- 10 of 13 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- On recent form, Hoffenheim should eye the points. 3 matches remain this season. Hannover themselves know that a win confirms safety. Will we see a relegation six pointer shock?
- Hannover like scoring and conceding and I would certainly look to lay Hannover should they score first. Hoff could even get 2 goals at least themselves.
- Unlikely we will see a trading angle given the Hoff tend to score first at home.
SPANISH LA LIGA
20:00 - Levante v Sevilla - 1.87 Sevilla
- 5 wins in their last 9 matches saw only 1 loss.
- 3 consecutive home wins and a recent coupon busting away win v Atl Bilbao has Levante now 9 points above the relegation zone with a possible 12 points remaining.
- 7 0-0's at halftime at home (41%).
- Only 1 win at home v top 10.
- 12 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- No win in 6 but 3 draws in their last 4 including 2 2-2 draws v Barcelona and Villareal.
- 2-2-2-2-0 conceded recently.
- Only 1 away draw was a 0-0 which came last match.
- Unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower.
- I cannot discount Levante here despite Sevilla remaining unbeaten v teams 16th and lower. I see value here in a 'West Brom'-like performance from Levante to secure their safety. I would actually lay Sevilla (already odds on) if they scored first. They have conceded 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches recently.
IRISH PREMIER LEAGUE
19:15 - Cork City v Dundalk - 2.56 Dundalk
- A clash of the likely top 2.
- 1-0 Dundalk last time these 2 met.
Cork City (2nd)
- Only 2 defeats came away and one was v Dundalk.
- 100% home wins without conceding. 3 1-0's and 2 consecutive 1-0's.
- Failed to score only v Dundalk.
- Conceded in only 2 matches.
- Dundalk yet to meet the top 4 away but had 2 0-0's v 5th and 6th away.
- Couple that with 1-0 wins recently for Cork City and I may back 0-0 pre match and hope this top clash is as tight as we think it may be.
- Cash out if still 0-0 at halftime.
19:45 - Bray Wanderers v Limerick - 2.38 Bray
- 1-1 and 1-0 Limerick in the last 2 head to heads.
Bray Wanderers (10th)
- First win came last home match care of a red card to their opponents.
- One of only 2 clean sheets.
- Not scored that 2nd goal at home.
- Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
- No win in 9.
- No win in 5 away.
- Wins have come v bottom 3.
- A feeling here that Limerick may nick another 0-1 as their wins (0-1) come v bottom 3.
- If Bray score first, lay them as they tend not to score a 2nd at home and only win this season came v 10 men.
19:45 - Derry v Shamrock Rovers - 2.3 Derry
- 6-1 Shamrock last head to head.
- 6 wins and a 2-2 last 7 matches.
- Scored in every match.
- 5 consecutive home wins.
- Only 1 draw.
Shamrock Rovers (5th)
- 5 losses and a 1-1 draw last 6.
- 5 losses in 6 away.
- Only away win v 2nd bottom.
- It does look as if, on form, Derry should not lose. We should certainly expect a goal from them.
- Lay Shamrock if Shamrock score first.
19:45 - St Pats v Bohemians - 1.85 St Pats
- 0-1 St Pats last head to head.
St Pats (6th)
- 4 of 5 defeats came away. Only loss v top 2 Cork at home.
- 3 consecutive home wins to nil, 2 1-0's.
- Unbeaten v 7th and lower home and away.
- Only 3 wins.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- All defeats bar 1 came v the top 4.
- St Pats are expected to score today. I do note that Bohemians tend to lose exclusively to top 4 but they should be conceding today.
19:45 - Waterford v Sligo Rovers - 1.89 Waterford
- 1-2 Waterford last head to head.
- No draw.
- 4 losses this season came without Waterford scoring, 3 were 1-0 defeats.
- 100% wins at home.
- 2+ goals scored v bottom 3.
Sligo Rovers (8th)
- Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- 2 of 3 wins came v bottom 2 away from home.
- 2 goals conceded at home v top 3.
- Waterford should eye the win here and score 2 goals at best. They tend to lose when not scoring and Sligo are conceding v the top 3.
- I would lay Sligo if Sligo scored first.
18:00 - AIK v Sirius - 1.44 AIK
- 1-4 AIK last head to head.
- Only a maximum of 5 matches played this Swedish season.
- AIK are unbeaten with 3 wins at home ,2 1-1 draws away.
- 3 home wins were all 2-0.
- Sirius have only 1 win in 4 matches, and failed to score last 2 matches.
- Limited form but AIK should be eyeing the win - a simple enough angle.
- This Swedish league is worth following as it will bring us into the summer.
ATP Hungarian Open
Jan-Lennard Struff v Marco Cecchinato - 1.8 Struff
- 53rd v 110th.
- Last head to heads 2013.
- Cecchianato yet to drop a set this Hungary Open since entering the round proper.
- Round of 32 at Monte Carlo too saw him take Raonic to 7-6.
- A final and 2 semi finals in Challenger Clay events for Marco suggests he likes clay.
- 2 3 setters for Struff in his last 3 clay matches suggests we lay Struff if he wins the first set.
Andreas Seppi v Nikoloz Basilashvili - 1.62 Seppi
- Seppi one of the strongest profiles yesterday and won well.
- 86th v 59th.
- Basil won the sole head to head and surprised me yesterday with an easy win v Shapalov who had the better clay court forn.
- Seppi semi final in Rotterdam; round of 16 at Monte Carlo.6-1 6-2 yesterday. I do think Seppi will not lose 2-0 today. I must admit though that Basil played above himself yesterday.
Lorenzo Sonego v Aljaz Bedene - 1.45 Bedene
- 213rd v 49th.
- An impressive win for Sonego v Richard Gasquet who did take the 2nd set to a tie breaker.
- 2 3 setters for Bedene this Hungary Open suggests we lay Sonego if Sonego wins the first set. Bedene's 2 first sets so far have been tie breakers so if that continues it could go either way dependent on who wins the key points.
John Millman v Yannick Maden - 1.87 Millman
- 128th v 148th.
- An impressive win for Millman v in-form Pouille saw me back Pouille at a high of 11 but he could not get past Millman. Millman sometimes puts together solid performances, beating Murray Queens, pushing Dimitrov in Brisbane.
- Both players are Challenger tour players normally so tough to call.
Maria Sakkari v Arantxa Rus - 1.63 Sakkari
- 52nd v 136th.
- no opinion here. I don't know these players well and there is no strong form to work with.
Polona Hercog v Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.77 Kuz
- Like Seppi, Hercog was a strong call yesterday and won well.
- 101st v 12th.
- Kuz is 2-0 in head to heads.
- Hercog did win via a retirement after a 6-2 first set yesterday.
- Kuz, even top 12, is in poor form, at least in the hard court season - 5 consecutive tournaments losing in the first round.
- Another match with little to work with. The top 12 player is on a poor run, at least on hard court. Is she layable (Kuz) if winning the first set?
Caroline Wozniacki v Pauline Parmentier - 1.14 Wozza
- Wozza lost the first set yesterday and won the next 2.
- Same odds as recent 2017 head to head Wozza won in 3 sets.
- Let's hope Parmentier wins the first set as Wozza tends to be reliable.
Donna Vekic v Irina-Camelia Begu - 1.67 Begu
- 54th v 43rd.
- Head to heads from 2014.
- No strong angles here.
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Dominic Thiem - 1.4 Thiem
- 91st v 5th.
- 2-0 Thiem head to heads.
- 3 setter at Indian wells.
- Thiem has had 2 first set tie breakers so far. If you think that pattern could continue, lay him now at 1.41 and hope the odds rise as a tie breaker arises.
- Stefanos yet to drop a set but yet to meet a World Number 5.
- A hope here that Thiem loses a first set tie breaker - I would back Thiem at higher odds if he did.
Pablo Carreno Busta v Grigor Dimitrov - 1.8 Dimitrov
- Yet again Dimitrov proved reliable. The World Number 3 lost the 2nd set and was taken to a tie breaker which he obviously won. His odds rose in play.
- These are 2 top 10 players, hence the odds today. Do we remain with the notion of Dimitrov being reliable from behind? He hit a high of 4.5 odds yesterday and I would certainly take that today if it happens in play.
- 3 setter for Busta last match does suggest Busta may not win 2-0 today if he wins the first set.
Rafael Nadal v Martin Klizan - 1.05 Nadal
- It's like flogging a dead horse laying Nadal on clay but at 1.06 liability is minimal.
David Goffin v Roberto Bautista Agut - 1.72 Goffin
- One of the stars this week, David Goffin, continued his struggles yesterday but, despite losing the first set, found his way through.
- 7th v 20th.
- Goffin has won the last 2 head to heads, one going to 3 sets.
- Goffin provides us with big odds to back him at. Here is the Hungary pattern. Lose the first set, 2nd set goes to a tie breaker. Hit a high of 200 first match.
- He is highly likely to trade at higher odds today so wait in play and back him as high as you dare, particularly if it looks as if he is about to go 2-0 down.
Simona Halep v Coco Vandeweghe - 1.33 Halep
- 1st v 10th.
- 6-1 6-1 2017 to Halep.
- Both players had a 3 setter last match.
- 4 consecutive Clay court finals for Halep suggests we lay Coco if Coco wins a first set.
Elina Svitolina v Caroline Garcia - 1.6 Elina
- 6th v 8th. Prepare for a tight match.
- All head to heads on hard. Today is clay.
- Garcia won the 2 most recent.
- Little to gain from Elina's first round - a retirement.
- Garcia has had 2 3 setters so far which does suggest Garcia may struggle to win 2-0 if winning the first set, particularly against a top 10 player.
Anett Kontaveit v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkov - 1.69 Anett
- 34th v 15th.
- Ana recent head to head win on hard.
- Anett recent walkover after retirement last match.Her first match saw 2 tie breakers.
- Both players are here because of retirements last round so form is clouded.
Karolina Pliskova v Jelena Ostapenko - 1.79 Ostapenko
- 4th v 7th.
- 2-1 Pliskova in head to heads.
- 3 consecutive hard court quarter finals for Pliskova.
- Ostapenko recent final on hard in Miami.
- Quarters and semi final at Roland Garros on clay for Pliskova.
- Final, semi, round of 32, Roland Garros WINNER Ostapenko on clay.
- This is too tight to call. An automatic 3 setter? Lay first set winner?