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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, May 26, 2017

More tennis trading today on Twitter @drtclub all being well (internet does tend to get temperamental with the rains!). Tennis trading this week has been a great experience. I am learning all the time and this is the first time I have gone from start to finish in a non-major tournament. Again, no official start times as tennis is fluid. Something like 10:30 is a guess.
Just the Irish Premier Division for me for the football and it tends to be a good league to research. I return with the 100% stats as 15 matches have been played. The boys from Tottingham play in a friendly v Kitchee today at 13:00 and I do not dismiss these friendlies. I remember once Arsenal were 0-1 down until the 90th minute and won 2-1 so there is money to be made if we get the right scenario.

19:45 - Cork City v Shamrock Rovers - 1.49 Cork City

  • 3 consecutive Cork wins in head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 5th in the Irish Premier Division after 15 matches.

Cork City 100% stats

  • Scored in every match.
  • Unbeaten.
  • All wins at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals at least at home.
  • All over 2.5 goals at home.

Cork City other stats

  • Failed to score at least 2 goals only once.
  • 2 consecutive 5-0 home wins.

Shamrock Rovers 100% stats

  • No away draw.
  • Scored in all away matches.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.

Shamrock Rovers other stats

  • Lost away to top 4.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of 7 aways.
  • Only 1 draw.
  • Scored in their last 12 matches.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today with Shamrock Rovers losing. That's what the form says. So let's hope Shamrock Rovers score first as they are opposable with Cork scoring 2+ goals in all bar 1 match this season.
  • We should expect 2 goals in total at least today.

19:45 - Galway Utd v Bohemians - 2.18 Galway

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 teams met.
  • This is 10th v 7th in the Irish premier division.

Galway United 100% stats

  • No over 3.5 goals matches at home.
  • Not won to nil this season.

Galway other stats

  • Both teams scored in 6 of 8 home matches.
  • Only 2 defeats in 11 but dropping points through 7 draws in those 11 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.

Bohemians 100% stats

  • No away draw.
  • No over 3.5 goals away.
  • No 0-0.

Bohemians other stats

  • 7 defeats in 9 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • In the last 9 matches at least one team scored at least 2 goals.
  • No draw in 10 matches.
  • Wins away were 1-2 or 0-1.
  • Only scored 2 goals once away.

Conclusions

  • Galway have not won to nil and kept only one clean sheet so lay Galway if Galway score first.
  • Lay any late draw while Bohs are avoiding the draw. This goes against Galway's 7 draws in 11 matches.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

19:45 - Bray v Sligo Rovers - 1.72 Bray

  • 3-2 Sligo in the last head to head.
  • This is 3rd v 11th in the Irish premier division.

Bray 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.

Bray other stats

  • Unbeaten at home v 8th and lower.
  • Only scored 1 goal v 9th and 10th at home.
  • Failed to score only twice.

Sligo Rovers 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • Conceded in all away matches.
  • No 0-0.

Sligo Rovers other stats

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score 2 goals away.
  • All defeats v top 6 away.

Conclusions

  • Sligo did win earlier but that's not what the away form says. Sligo are yet to win away and yet to score 2 goals. So lay them if they score first in the hope this pattern continues.
  • Bray should remain unbeaten v 8th and lower.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Remember Sligo have conceded in all aways. Set to continue today?

19:45 - St Patricks v Dundalk - 1.67 Dundalk

  • 3-0 Dundalk in the last head to head.
  • This is 9th v 2nd in the Irish Premier Division.

St Pats 100% stats

  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • No 0-0.
  • 100% home matches with 2/3 goals in total.

St Pats other stats

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Not beaten a top 4 teams.

Dundalk 100% stats

  • No away draw.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • Not lost to nil this season.

Dundalk other stats

  • Failed to score only in their last match, the only 0-0 this season.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • No draw in 7 away.
  • Scored 1 goal at least in last 7 away.
  • 8 wins and a loss v teams 6th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Strong 2 goals at least pattern for both teams which tells us to oppose any 1-0/0-1 and any 0-0.
  • No draw yet for Dundalk away - lay any late draw?
  • Expect Dundalk to score. They failed to score only in their last match and scored in last 7 away.
  • I would lay St Pats if St Pats scored first. Note the St Pats home goal pattern. Total goals 2 or 3 in all home matches could give you creative types some potential correct scores? 1-2, 0-2?

19:45 - Drogheda v Derry - 1.7 Derry

  • 4-0 Derry win in the last head to head.
  • This is 8th v 4th in the Irish Premier Division.

Drogheda 100% stats

  • No win home or away v top 4.

Drogheda other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 4 at home but 3 consecutive draws.
  • Failed to score last 3 matches.

Derry other stats

  • 6 draws and 2 wins last 8 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away draws part of a run of 5 away without a win.
  • Only away defeat was v Cork City (1st in league).
  • Managed to score 4 goals away v Bohs but failed to score a 2nd goal v other teams away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams have a case of draw-itis and I would be laying any late draw here today in the hope those sequences end.

20:00 - Finn Harps v Limerick - 2.14 Limerick

  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • This is 12th v 6th in the Irish Premier Division.

Finn Harps 100% stats

  • Failed to score at home in the 4 matches v top 8 teams.
  • Conceded in all home matches.
  • No 0-0.

Finn Harps other stats

  • No draw in 10 matches.
  • 7 defeats in their last 9 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.

Limerick 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

Limerick other stats

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • 2 away defeats v 2nd and 11th.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0 here. 2 teams in poor form so just a neutral position.

Tennis

ATP Lyon

Baliashvili v Tsonga - 1.29 Tsonga

  • 61st v 11th in the rankings.
  • No head to heads. Tsonga is French and the last time he was in France he won the Marseille tournament.
  • This is the semi-final. 48th, 75th and 95th in the rankings were the players Baliashvili beat so far. 11th in the world is a massive step up.
  • 10th, 56th and 709th in the world have beaten Baliashvili recently so an element of lack of consistency.
  • Tsonga as we know withdrew in Madrid but seems in fine fettle in his home country. Berlocq and Khachanov beaten so far.
  • Recent losses for Tsonga came in 3 sets.

Conclusions

  • If Tsonga is to lose I think it will be a 3 setter. This is a semi-final so Baliashvili will be delighted but he is up against 11th in the world, and a French man at home.
  • He won in 3 sets v 48th in the world and found 75th and 95th easy. This is a step up. I expect a Tsonga win and will enter the match on that basis. Oh for a Baliashvili first set win!

Milos Raonic v Tomas Berdych - 1.58 Raonic

  • The market hasn't fancied old thunder thighs this tournament, yet here he is in the semi final.
  • 6th v 13th. Raonic has done nothing but rise in the rankings.
  • Raonic has won the last 2 head to heads, 2016 and 2017 so has the ability to cope with Berdych. There is a thought that Berdych tends not to beat top 5 players.
  • 6-3 6-2 Raonic v Berdych - Milos won in Rome.
  • 6-4  6-3 both matches for Raonic so far in Lyon.
  • Both players have lost to Cilic and Alexander Zverev in recent matches.

Conclusions

  • Semi finals tend to be matches I like to avoid if I do not have a strong angle. The cream rises to the top.
  • On form, Milos knows, as recently as Rome masters, that he has the beating of Berdych so on that basis I have to lay Berdych if he takes the first set.

WTA Nurnberg

Kiki Bertens v Misaki Doi - 1.22 Kiki

  • Beefy Curtains has been great to trade. Yesterday it looked as if she would lose the first set so I layed her opponent 2-0 set betting at about 4 (10+ odds pre match). Beefy won the set and I traded out.
  • Same again today please.
  • 20th v 52nd in the rankings.
  • Head to heads back in 2014 should not be relevant.
  • Misaki Doi is here because of 2 retirements so glass half empty - she is very lucky to be here.
  • In the match she did win, it took 3 sets.
  • Beefy as we know is in great form. Quarter Finals in Madrid and Semis in Roma - she could be a lively French Open each way punt.

Conclusions

  • It is difficult to evaluate what Doi has 'achieved' 2 retirements tells us nothing.
  • Bertens I hope will do as she did yesterday. Look like losing the first set to give us a short odds lay of her opponent in the 2-0 set betting market.

Geneva Open

Mischa Zverev v Kei Nishikori - 1.24 Nishikori

  • 35th v 7th in the rankings.
  • No head to heads.
  • Mischa has fight in him. 3-0 down 2nd set and he won the set. That or Steve Johnson couldn't cut it yesterday. 3-0 was enough to successfully trade although I know one tweeter mis-guidedly stayed in ASSUMING a Johnson 2nd set win.
  • Prior to that 2 set win yesterday, Mischa has tended to be a 3 set winner. That was the reason to lay him after he won the 1st set and proved a successful trade at 3-0 SJ.
  • Losses to Coric and Berdych for Zverev suggests a top 10 player will be too much for him today.
  • Kei gave us a nice trade yesterday in losing the first set to Kevin Anderson, then winning the next 2.

Conclusions

  • Let's hope for a Zverev first set win as he will be confidently opposed by yours truly.

Stan Wawrinka v Kuznetsov - 1.32 Stanislas

  • 3rd v 87th in the rankings.
  • Kuznetsov won in Miami in 2016 in straight sets and Stan was 1.2 odds there.
  • This epitomises the inconsitency and unreadability of Stanislas the Manislas. I did put up a back of him yesterday on Twitter at 2.3 and that paid off well but he's tennis's Red Bull Salzburg/ Standard Liege. You don't back him, he dots up. You back him and he throws one of his hissy fits, downs tools and losing in straight sets.
  • He is in Geneva and that seems to be galvanising.
  • The win v Sam Querrey was impressive. He lost the first set, won the 2nd 7-5 and cruised in the 3rd.
  • Kuznetsov was lucky to play Stebe, 322nd in the world and still Stebe took the middle set of 3 against him.

Conclusions

  • Kuznetsov has taken sets off Berdych and Tsonga so has something to his game. If he wins the first set today he is immediately opposable.
  • Wawrinka may be trustworthy in his home country. He brought home 2.3 odds yesterday so look to back him over evens today.

WTA Strasbourg

Peng v Stosur - 1.55 Stosur

  • 37th v 18th in the rankings.
  • 7-1 to Stosur in head to heads. Peng did win in Taipei and as a Chinese national would have been more motivated. That was a routine 6-4 6-4 but Stosur won in Miami after losing the first set.
  • So last 3 head to heads, 7-6 tie breaker Stosur, Peng wins 1st set next 2 matches.
  • 48th, 207th, 41st the rankings Peng has beaten to be here.
  • 25th, 98th and 60th for Stosur to beat to come here. I think the win v Navarro in the quarters merits acknowledgement.
  • Both players were poor in Rome, knocked out round of 64.
  • Collateral form through Navarro. Peng lost to her in Madrid, Stosur beat her quarters here in Strasbourg.

Conclusions

  • Horses for courses? Peng reached the Final in Zhengzhou and beat Stosur in Taipei.
  • I think the head to heads are telling. I would watch out for a tight first set match here and a hopeful Peng win and then lay Peng. Peng has, in last 3 head to heads, produced a tie breaker, then won the first set 2 consecutive matches.