Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a shortlist today. There are some good and bad trading candidates today. It will be at the DRT Facebook page. If I am up and about tonight at 19:00 I will live chat via Twitter. There will be live chats Saturday and Sunday and a live chat webinar tomorrow.
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6233010859880645890 is the link for the webinar tomorrow.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:45 - Dijon v Rennes - 2.58 Dijon

  • 2.58 odds tells you this is probably a match we will get little from.
  • 1-1 and 2-2 in the 2 most recently Ligue 1 matches.

Dijon (14th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 5 consecutive wins at home ended with a 1-1 draw. Inference that Dijon are mustard at home?
  • No 0-0.
  • Losses at home v 1st, 4th and 16th. It suggests the loss v 16th was anomolous. It was a 0-1.

Rennes (8th)

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Only 1 draw in 14 matches.
  • 4 of the last 5 away scorelines were 2-1 (2 wins and 2 losses).
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • Scored and conceded all aways v 10th and lower.
  • 12 of 16 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Dijon look good at home so a tick there. 2 home losses came v top 4 sides.
  • Rennes tend to score and concede. On my reading, I would like Rennes to score first so I could lay Rennes. I think Dijon have good home momentum.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Frankfurt v Mgladbach - 2.4 Frankfurt

  • 0-0, 0-0, 0-1 Frankfurt in the last 3 head to heads.

Frankfurt (7th)

  • Only 5 losses.
  • Scored and conceded in 12 of the last 14 matches and only lost 2, 0-1's.
  • Conceded in their last 14 matches and last 9 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Wins at home came v 14th and 16th. Does that signal struggles today?
  • That said, 2-2's v 3rd and 6th at home.

Mgladbach (5th)

  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score only 3 matches.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime all season.
  • Solid away record v top 11, scoring and conceding but 2 wins, 2 2-2 draws and a loss.

Conclusions

  • I think 2-2 is a goer today and I will back pre-match and hope Mgladbach continue their both teams scoring habit v top 11.
  • 2-2's for Frankfurt v 3rd and 6th too adds to the confidence.
  • Slight favour towards Mgladbach here.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - Heerenveen v Sparta Rotterdam - 1.53 Heerenveen

  • 3-0 Heerenveen and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.

Heerenveen (9th)

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss v 8th and lower came away.
  • Failed to play 5 of the bottom 6 at home so no form there.

Sparta (18th)

  • 7 consecutive defeats.
  • No away win.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 8 matches and last 9 away.
  • Only 2 wins all season.
  • 17 of 21 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If 0-0 at halftime OR if Sparta have not conceded by halftime, expect them to concede 2nd half.
  • Heerenveen have only 2 wins in 13 matches but the market is with them because Sparta are so poor.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Athletic Bilbao v Eibar - 1.86 Athletic Bilbao

  • 4 consecutive Athletic Bilbao wins in head to heads, the last 2 were 0-1.

Athletic Bilbao (12th)

  • 6 draws and 3 wins in their last 9 matches.
  • 0-0, 0-0, 2-0 last 3 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 home defeats came v top 2 teams.
  • Those were the only 2 matches Bilbao conceded 2 goals in.

Eibar (8th)

  • Only 1 loss in 9 came at home v Atl Madrid recently. Good form.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Led in only 1 away match at halftime.
  • Not beaten a top 15 team played away.
  • 6 of 7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Ath Bilbao look good at home, with only 2 defeats v the top 2.
  • With Eibar not beating any top 15 team away from home, I would lay Eibar were they to score first.
  • If Eibar score early first half, lay them in the halftime market.

ENGLISH F.A. CUP

19:55 - Yeovil v Manchester United - 1.16 Man Utd

  • Team news is vital for this F.A.Cup match, for Man Utd. It is clear that the F.A. Cup has lacked the allure of the past, at least with Premier League managers who are keen to play weakened side.
  • A new player on show for Man Utd. Will he be showcased in Yeovil?
  • These 2 have FA Cup history. A 0-2 win in 2015 saw 2 2nd half goals.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

 17:00 - Besiktas v Kasimpasa - 1.24 Besiktas

  • 6-6-3-3-5-4 goals in total in recent head to heads.
  • Kasimpasa actually solid record at home in head to heads.

Besiktas (4th)

  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 3 defeats.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home and unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • 11 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 6/8 at home.

Kasimpasa (11th)

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Not beaten a top 6 team.
  • 2 losses away v 2nd and 3rd.

Conclusions

  • Plenty of goals in head to heads. Will that happen today?
  • Expect Besiktas to score at some stage.
  • Besiktas are unbeaten at home so that is a strong angle. Also unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Kasimpasa I would actually go for were this head to head at Kasimpasa but I do not expect them to win today, even if scoring.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

This league is usually a goal fest of both teams scoring, over 2.5 goals and goals before halftime. Choose the matches below which meet these 3 criterion.

19:00 - Dordrecht v FC Oss - 1.93 Dordrecht

  • 4-2 Oss and 3-1 Oss in the last 2 league head to heads.

Dordrecht (14th)

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 3-2-2-3 goals scored last 4 at home but 2 of those were losses.
  • No draw in 11 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 win at home v top 10 came v 1st.
  • 16 of 22 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

FC Oss (7th)

  • 4 wins in 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 9 away matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Both teams scored in all bar 2 matches away.
  • 16 of 18 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score has a big probability of coming in - look at Oss away.
  • Dordrecht could score 2 goals today and not necessarily win.
  • 2-2 a potential trading angle?

19:00 - Fortuna Sittard v Emmen - 2.18 Fortuna sittard

  • 2-3 Fortuna Sittard and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.

Fortuna Sittard (1st)

  • 7 consecutive wins ended with a shock 3-0 home loss last match.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 11 home matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 6 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v 2nd.
  • Scored first in 10/11 at home.

Emmen (8th)

  • Scored and conceded in 12 of their last 13 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten v top 10 but 9 draws and a single win.

Conclusions

  • A blip last match for Fortuna?
  • Given Emmen's inability to turn draws into wins v top 10 teams, I would lay Emmen if Emmen scored first.
  • Fortuna could return to scoring 2 goals at home today so watch out for that.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - Helmond Sport v Almere City - 2.54 Almere

  • 3-1 Almere in the last head to heads.
  • The odds suggest a muddling match. I have left these to the end to research.

Helmond Sport (18th)

  • 2 wins in 3 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Both teams scored and Helmond lost v top 5 at home. Will that stretch to 6th?

Almere City (6th)

  • 7 wins, a loss and 2 draws in the last 10 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • 3-3-3-4 goals scored v bottom 4 sides (the 3's came at home).
  • 12 of 16 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • Opponents scored first in 10/11 away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score has a high probability of occuring.
  • Almere actually tend to concede first away but their record recently and record v bottom 3 suggests that they are the team to be with today.
  • That is, despite the 2.54 odds quote which suggests that the market cannot split these 2 sides.
  • Almere are highly likely to score 2nd half if they have not scored by halftime.

19:00 - Jong Utrecht v Cambuur - 1.6 Cambuur

  • 0-2 Cambuur and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.

Jong Utrecht (20th)

  • 13 losses in 15 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home. Interesting! 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 wins came at home v 12th and 19th.
  • 17 of 19 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Cambuur (13th)

  • 4 wins in 6 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away. Not led at halftime away.
  • All 3 away wins came v 15th, 16th and 19th.2 0-1 win.
  • All 11 away goals scored came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • It looks rather obvious. We have to oppose a team with 13 losses in 15 matches.
  • Do not be surprised if this is 0-0 at halftime or even Jong lead at halftime. I expect it to all come crumbling down 2nd half. Superb second half concession and scoring stats both sides.
  • Cambuur should be eyeing a result here.

19:00 - MVV Maastricht v De Graafschap - 2.52 De Graafschap

  • 1-2 MVV in the last head to head.

MVV (12th)

  • Only 2 home losses v the top 3.

De Graafschap (9th)

  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 3-2 away defeats.
  • Scored in their last 15 matches.
  • Only 3 away wins v 3rd, 18th and 20th.
  • Only 1 loss away v teams below them in the league.
  • 15 of 20 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Not for me. An argument can be made for both sides. MVV only lost at home v top 3 and De Graaf only 1 loss away v teams below them in the league.

19:00 - NEC Nijmegen v Den Bosch - 1.41 NEC Nijmegen

  • 3-0 Den Bosch last head to head.

NEC (2nd)

  • Only 4 losses but 2 consecutive defeats now.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 4 under 2.5 goals matches.
  • No defeat in 11 at home, scoring in all matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Scored and conceded (and unbeaten) at home in all matches v top 13.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Led at halftime in 9/11 at home.

Den Bosch (10th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • 3 losses in their last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 12 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Lost away v 3rd and 4th.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Both teams to score has a big chance here with Den Bosch likely to score but not win.
  • This, despite, NEC's poor recent form. The fact remains, NEC are unbeaten at home and unbeaten at halftime at home and scored in all home matches.
  • Lay Den Bosch if Den Bosch score first.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals suggests 2 goals at least in total.

19:00 - Waalwijk v Jong Ajax - 1.81 Jong Ajax

  • 4-1 Ajax and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Waalwijk (17th)

  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches were 1-0 home wins.
  • Scored in their last 8 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played the top 3 at home but beat 4th and 7th at home!

Jong Ajax (3rd)

  • 5 wins in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored in their last 9 and last 11 away.
  • 11 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Interestingly 4-1 and 4-2 defeats away v 15th and 19th.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • On very recent form (7 matches) Jong Ajax are in the better form.
  • An argument for a shock? Waalwijk 2 out of 2 wins at home v top 7, Jong conceding 4 goals in 2 matches v 15th and 19th!
  • I will stick with the expectation of a first half goal.