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I have done a review/preview video. A return to league football today after a very unreliable Europa League session.


ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Derby v Nottingham Forest - 2.45 Derby

  • No indepth research here as it is 2.45 the favourite. Derby have scored 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches, winning those matches. This is a change in pattern from their usual inability to score that 2nd goal.
  • 4 consecutive home wins for Derby.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches away for Forest and 2 recent 1-0 wins so this could be a tight defensive match. Both sides are in recent winning form.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/8 Derby home matches against bottom-half teams while Nottm Forest have drawn the first half in 7/8 away matches against bottom-half teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 17/20 Nottm Forest away matches.

SCOTTISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Inverness v Hearts - 1.70 Hearts

Inverness - 6th

  • Came from behind to lead Alloa latest and then end up 2-2.
  • They have scored 2 goals in 2 consecutive matches.
  • Draw, Draw, Loss, Draw at home.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.

Hearts - 1st

  • 1-0 win, 0-1 win, 1-1, 1-1 latest.
  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Win, Win, Win, Draw away.
  • 3 clean sheets last 5 matches.
  • Scored last 17 and last 8 away.
  • 8 wins and a draw v 6th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Inverness were odds on favourite mid week but Hearts are the favourite and have the head to head win over Inverness. I am with the market here but if Hearts continue to struggle to get that 2nd goal, Inverness could punish.
  • 1st goal: Inverness CT have conceded first in 8/11 home matches while Hearts have won 5/8 away matches. Hearts have scored first in 5/8 away matches.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Levante v Athletic Bilbao - 2.45 Athletic Bilbao

Levante - 8th

  • Only 3 losses since 26th October 2020.
  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches came away v the Madrid sides.
  • Conceded last 7 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 2-0 loss last head to head.
  • Only 2 home losses came v 2nd and 13th.

Athletic Bilbao - 10th

  • Only away win since 1st October came last away match.
  • Scored in their last 7 and last 7 away.
  • Not beaten top 13 away.
  • 12/16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 2.45 suggests in-play stats. Levante for me look the better on seasonal form. Bilbao are yet to beat the top 13 away.
  • 1st goal: Levante have scored first in 9/12 home matches against middle-third teams while Ath. Bilbao have lost 7/12 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 12/19 Ath. Bilbao away matches.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Werder Bremen v Frankfurt - 1.83 Frankfurt

Werder Bremen - 12th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Win, Draw, Draw at home recently.
  • Not played the top 5 at home. 1-1 draw last head to head.
  • Not beaten the top 11 home or away.
  • 5 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Frankfurt - 4th

  • 9 wins and a draw last 10 matches.
  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • 2+ goals scored last 11 matches and last 5 away.
  • Scored last 17 and last 8 away.
  • All 5 away wins came v 11th and lower.

Conclusions

  • I have to side with Frankfurt in their current form. Superb. Scoring 2 goals and really should have too much for Werder Bremen.
  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 7/11 E. Frankfurt away matches and +2.5 goals in 14/18 E. Frankfurt away matches. W. Bremen have conceded first in 14/20 home matches.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Torino v Sassuolo - 2.50 Sassuolo

  • Leave this to the in-play stats.
  • Match outcome: Torino FC have lost 6/9 home matches against top-half teams and they have conceded first in 6/10 such matches. Sassuolo have drawn the first half in 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

20:00 - Rennes v Nice - 1.85 Rennes

Rennes - 8th

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Draw, loss, draw, loss at home.
  • Only played one of 15th and lower, a 1-1.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.
  • Unbeaten away v 15th and lower.

Nice - 16th

  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away losses.
  • Scored last 5 and last 5 away.
  • Only wins v the top 9 home and away came v Lens home and away.
  • 11/17 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both sides in poor recent form.
  • Not enough form for Rennes at home v 15th and lower but surely the fact they are unbeaten away v 15th or lower may count for something here?
  • 1st goal: Rennes have scored first in 14/20 home matches against bottom-six teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 12/18 Nice away matches.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - Zwolle v Heerenveen  - 2.50 Zwolle

  • 13th v 10th.
  • All PEC Zwolle losses this season came v the top 9.
  • Heerenveen have only 1 loss away v 5th and lower. Heerenveen are unbeaten away v 12th and lower.
  • 8/11 goals scored at home for Zwolle came first half. Heerenveen have conceded 7 goals away last 15 mins of matches.
  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 6/10 Zwolle home matches against middle-third teams and +2.5 goals in 11/18 Heerenveen away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 12/20 Zwolle home matches.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

20:30 - Guimaraes v Boavista - 2.00 Guimaraes

Guimaraes - 6th

  • No win in 5 matches.
  • Loss, Draw at home recently.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • Scored last 6 at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower. 7 wins and a 2-2.
  • 3/3 1-0 wins v the bottom 3.

Boavista - 16th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Won last match at home, a 1-0.
  • Win, Draw away last 2 matches.
  • All draws away v the top 11.
  • 11/16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • No win in 5 plays only 3 wins...but Boavista have a 100% draw record v top 11 away. Lay them if they score first?
  • Guimaraes look solid v 11th and lower. Unbeaten and 7 wins. But 1-0 wins only v the bottom 3.
  • Match outcome: Vitoria S.C. have won 10/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while Boavista have lost by two or more goals in 6/10 trips to top-six teams. Boavista have lost 14/20 away matches against top-six teams.

DANISH SUPERLIGA

18:00 - Vejle v Horsens - 1.95 Vejle

Vejle - 9th

  • Only 1 win in 11 matches was a 0-1 away.
  • No win in 5 home matches.
  • 8/11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 10/14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 3-1 loss last head to head was the only loss home or away v 6th and lower.

Horsens  - 12th

  • Only 1 win...came v Vejle.
  • 6 losses and a 0-0 last 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score last 4 matches.
  • Conceded last 8 away.
  • 7 losses and a draw last 8 away.

Conclusions

  • Revenge on the cards. The market things so. Both sides are poor and in poor recent form but an odds on quote for Vejle whose only defeats v 6th and lower was v Horsens.
  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 4/8 Vejle Kolding home matches and +2.5 goals in 5/8 Vejle Kolding home matches. Horsens have drawn the first half in 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Dutch Eerste Divisie

17:45 - Go Ahead Eagles v Jong PSV Eindhoven - 1.53 Go Ahead Eagles

Go Ahead Eagles - 5th

  • 8 wins and a loss last 9 matches.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Win at home recently.
  • 5 clean sheets in 6.
  • 2-3 win last head to head.
  • 6 goals scored last 15 mins at home.

Jong PSV - 16th

  • Only 6 wins.
  • Won last match 1-0.
  • 4 losses and a win last 5 away.
  • Only 2 wins in 14 matches.
  • Conceded last 12 away.
  • All defeats v top 8 away.

Conclusions

  • Go Ahead are tough to score against and with Jong PSV losing to top 8 away, this is Go Ahead's match to win. Go Ahead do score very late.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 12/17 G.A. Eagles home matches against bottom-six teams and in 10/10 Jong PSV away matches against top-six teams. Jong PSV have lost 10/10 away matches against top-six teams.

17:45 - MVV Maastricht v Telstar - 2.30 Telstar

MVV Maastricht - 17th

  • Draw, Win, Win at home.
  • No 0-0 at fulltime at home.
  • 1-2 win last head to head.
  • Only 2 losses at home v 7th and lower.

Telstar - 9th

  • No win in 5.
  • Both teams scored in 10/12 matches.
  • Conceded last 12 and last 12 away.
  • All losses bar 2 came v the top 5. Did lose to MVV earlier.
  • 11/16 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • An equal argument for both. MVV only 2 losses at home v 7th and lower, Telstar, all defeats bar 2 v the top 5.
  • Leave to in-play stats.
  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 11/20 Maastricht home matches and +2.5 goals in 11/18 Telstar away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 11/15 Maastricht home matches.

20:00 - De Graafschap v Jong AZ Alkmaar - 1.40 De Graafschap

De Graafschap - 2nd

  • 8 wins and a loss last 9 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • 9 wins and a loss v 14th and lower. The loss....7-3 v Jong AZ!!!
  • 15 goals scored first half at home.

Jong AZ - 18th

  • Conceded last 11 and last 4 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • All defeats away v the top 4.

Conclusions

  • Revenge on the cards here. A whopping 7-3 win for Jong AZ last time out shouldn't be repeated based on current form. Solid win record recently for De Graaf.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in the expectation for goals.
  • HT/FT: De Graafschap have had W/W double results in 6/7 home matches against bottom-six teams while Jong AZ have lost by two or more goals in 8/10 trips to top-six teams. De Graafschap have won 7/7 home matches against bottom-six teams.

20:00 - Den Bosch v Jong Utrecht - 2.15 Jong Utrecht

Den Bosch - 20th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • No win in 20 and in 10 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 at home. Conceded last 10 at home.
  • Not beaten the top 16.
  • 3-1 loss last head to head.

Jong Utrecht - 15th

  • 5 consecutive defeats.
  • 2-2-2-3-3 goals conceded.
  • 5 losses and a win last 6 away.
  • No draw 12.
  • 2+ goals scored away v 17th, 18th, 19th.
  • 14/19 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 18/25 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 2 poor sides but Jong Utrecht are scoring 2 goals regularly v 17th and lower and meet 20th today. Slightly favour them?
  • 1st goal: Den Bosch have scored first in 10/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while Jong Utrecht have lost 11/16 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Jong Utrecht away matches against bottom-six teams.

20:00 - Roda v NEC Nijmegen - 2.30 Roda

Roda - 6th

  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 6/7 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • 2+ goals last 5 matches.
  • All defeats bar 1 came v the top 5.
  • 1-1 last head to head.

NEC Nijmegen - 7th

  • 2 wins, 2 losses last 4 matches.
  • Win, Loss, Win, Loss away recently.
  • 2 consecutive 2-1 defeats.
  • Scored last 9 away.

Conclusions

  • Roda are in the better recent form and scoring 2 goals, a good foundation surely? Both teams to score has a chance here.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Roda JC home matches against top-half teams and in 14/20 NEC away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 11/18 Roda JC home matches.