I finished early with the Europa League 2nd leg matches last night. The angles were not there. The reliability certainly was not there. But Braga and Zenit delivered again (see my facebook post on teams to watch). Braga were behind twice, gave us a Desmond and nailed it.
Ajax turned their shot dominance into a 1-2 lead which was expected to see them to at least extra time. But they managed to concede twice for an ultimate 3-2 loss to a Rosenborg side whose Europa League form (before their double over Ajax) was simply appalling. The Europa League 2nd leg can do these things. We are back to league football today and over the weekend, thankfully.
I have been asked by new members what to do with the Daily Bulletin. My reply is in this week's DRT eletter. There is no form to work with so no conclusions can reasonably be made. There are no 'tips' as such. It is research to get a flavour for the teams. In-play stats are king at this time of the season. The Daily Bulletin research gets really detailed as the matches being played increases. More form = more patterns to find = more accurate findings.
The Dutch Eerste Divisie is in its 2nd round of matches, so no research yet. Note this, though. All matches in the first round saw both teams score and over 2.5 goals. As I will be doing long live chats over Saturday and Sunday I may not tweet tonight but as ever, if I am about at 19:00 for those crazy dutch goals galore Eerste Divisie teams, then I will be tweeting @drtclub.
Spanish Primera Liga
19:15 - Sociedad v Villarreal - 2.12 Sociedad
- 2-1 and 0-1 Villareal in the last 2 league head to heads.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Real Sociedad home matches against top-six teams and -1.5 goals in 8/12 Villarreal away matches.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 14/20 Villarreal away matches.
- 2-1 down to 2-3 win for Sociedad in their opener. Villareal lost 1-0.
- Little to get stuck into at this stage.
- This is 6th and 5th from last season so expectations are high for these 2. Sociedad won only 1 home match v top 7 last season
- Villareal only lost to Barcelona amongst the top 6 last season.
21:00 - Betis v Celta Vigo - 2.52 Betis
- The market is non committal here.
- 3 score draws and a 0-1 Betis win in the last 4 head to heads.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 Real Betis home matches against middle-third teams while Celta Vigo have drawn the first half in 8/13 away matches.
- Celta Vigo have lost 8/12 away matches.
- 15th v 13th from last season.Betis at home were unbeaten v 10th and lower.
- Celta Vigo away were unbeaten v 14th and lower. No wonder the market is non committal.
- Both teams conceded 2 or 3 goals in their openers.
19:30 - FC Koln v Hamburg - 1.92 FC
- The home team has tended to win head to heads in recent years.
- FC Koln have drawn the first half in 7/9 home matches against bottom-six teams.
- Hamburg SV have lost 7/10 away matches.
- 1-0 loss for Koln. 1-0 win for hamburg in their openers.
- 5th v 14th last season. Expectations are high for FC Koln? Only 2 defeats at home all season for FC Koln. V 10th and lower last season, FC Koln did not concede that 2nd goal.
- Only 2 away wins for Hamburg last season.
- It is an assumption we should not be making , but.....if last year's pattern continues into this year, then FC Koln should not be losing.
19:45 - Hull v Bolton - 1.86 Hull
- Middle-third relegated teams have scored first in 60% of home matches against promoted teams since 2012-13 while bottom-six promoted teams have conceded first in 52% of away matches against relegated teams since 2012-13.
- Middle-third relegated teams have won 52% of home matches against promoted teams since 2012-13.
- Both teams have scored in all of Hull's 4 matches this season. Hull have lost their last 2 matches.
- 4 and 2 goals scored by Hull in their last 2 matches at home.
- 2 consecutive away draws for Bolton.No win yet for Bolton.
- I do like Hull's goal scoring at home. Is that enough to get them out of trouble should Bolton score first?
19:45 - Bristol City v Aston Villa - 2.6 Bristol
- The odds relay that the market cannot split these 2 sides.
- 3-1 Bristol and 2-0 Aston Villa in the last 2 head to heads.
- Aston Villa have lost 10/13 away matches and they have conceded first in 9/13 away matches.
- There have been +1.5 goals in 13/20 Bristol City home matches against bottom-half teams.
- Both teams scored in Bristol's opening 3 matches. That ended with a 0-0 last match.
- Aston Villa has lost their 2 away matches this season.
- Only 1 win each for these 2 this season. No strong patterns yet. The matches played count is rising and as it rises, patterns will emerge.
- Take the market's cues here and leave this to the in-play stats.
French Ligue 1
19:45 - PSG v St Etienne - 1.11 PSG
- 1-1 the last time St Etienne visited but the market expects something like the 0-5 PSG last match.
- Paris St-G have won by two or more goals in 12/16 home matches against top-six teams while Saint-Etienne have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 trips to top-six teams.
- Paris St-G have had W/W double results in 11/15 home matches against top-six teams.
- 100% record for both teams this season. 11 goals in 3 games for PSG, 2 1-0 wins and a 3-0 v newcomers Amiens for St Etienne.
- The market has decided on a spanking for St Etienne. Last weekend I said in research to lay PSG as Toulouse record was good. That came off despite the final result, as Toulouse scored first.
- St ETienne are yet to concede this season and I think that they can offer some resistance. The earliest PSG goal to date is a 31st minute goal. 8 of their 11 goals this season came 2nd half.
19:00 - NAC Breda v Sparta Rotterdam - 2.18 Breda
- No recent head to heads in the top flight.
- Sparta R'dam have lost 9/12 away matches and they have conceded first in 9/11 away matches.
- Bottom-six promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 65% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2012-13.
- 2 4-1 defeats for Breda this season but this is now a more manageable task.
- 3-0 loss and 1-1 draw for Sparta this season.
- Sparta's 3 wins last season away were v bottom 4 sides so that suggests an ability to be competitive against promoted Breda?
- As we have seen in the opening weeks, it is folly to try and 'read' the newly promoted sides. Let's wait and see how their form progresses this season.
Turkish Super Lig
19:45 - Galatasary v Sivasspor - 1.3 Gala
- There have been +2.5 goals in 10/11 Galatasaray home matches against promoted teams.
- Top-half promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 55% of away matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
- Top-half promoted teams have conceded first in 60% of away matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
- Both teams have scored in 2 wins for Gala this season. They have scored 7 goals so far.
- Loss and a win for Sivasspor this season. No draw at home last season for Galatasary. Sivasspor are newly promoted so those words of caution as per the Breda match!
Dutch Eerste Divisie
In the opening matches this season, both teams scored and over 2.5 goals in every single match! 19:00 kick offs. I am not going to research these matches this early in the season. I want to make you aware that goals will be expected. A simple angle? Look for 0-0's at halftime.Take on the 0-0's in the second half.
19:00 - Almere City v Den Bosch - 1.67 Almere
19:00 - De Graafschap v Cambuur - 2.2 De Graaf
19:00 - Dordrecht v Jong Utrecht - 2.15 Dordrecht
19:00 - Emmen v FC Eindhoven - 1.83 Emmen
19:00 - Telstar v MVV Maastricht - 2.2 MVV
19:00 - FC Oss v Volendam - 2.00 Volendam
19:00 - Jong AZ Alkmaar v Waalwijk - 1.91 Jong
19:00 - Go Ahead Eagles v NEC Nijmegen - 2.4 NEC
19:00 - Jong Ajax v Fortuna Sittard - 1.7 Jong
19:00 - Helmond Sport v Jong PSV - 2.10 Helmond