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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 24, 2023

There are International Friendlies. I will not research these and discourage you from trading unless the in-play stats shout out a play. You may benefit from a look at International Friendly form via www.uk.soccerway.com. You may find some teams take these seriously, yet others may concede more in friendlies or field weaker sides and not perform as per the form or the World Rankings.

European Championship Qualifying

17:00 - Bulgaria v Montenegro - 2.62 Bulgaria

  • 71st v 69th.
  • Group G - no marquee teams in this open-looking group. 2.62 suggests an imponderable v 2 teams so close in the World Rankings.

19:45 - Austria v Azerbaijan - 1.22 Austria

  • 34th v 121st.
  • Group F - Austria, Belgium and Sweden the likely players.

19:45 - Czech Republic v Poland - 2.30 Czech Republic

  • 38th (Czechia?) v 22nd.
  • Group E - weak links Moldova, Faroe Islands and Albania suggests that these 2 will dominate. So...this head-to-head is vital for the teams to take points off the likeliest rival for top spot.

19:45 - France v Netherlands - 1.85 France

  • 3rd v 6th - France the highest-ranked European Team.
  • Group B should see these top 10 sides dominate with Ireland knocking on the door. As with the above match, this likely 1-2 in the group will be keen to take the points of their main threat.

19:45 - Gibraltar v Greece - 1.08 Greece

  • 200th v 51st.
  • More Group B candidates but will have to do something to break the likely stranglehold of France and the Netherlands. Ireland may be Greece's nearest rival for 3rd, or a breach into 2nd, in the group.

19:45 - Moldova v Faroe Islands - 2.50 Moldova

  • 174th v 123rd.
  • huddle the family round the wireless. This is the match-up of a generation.
  • This Group E should see Poland and the Czech Republic dominate. I would favour Faroes more today if they were at home.

19:45 - Serbia v Lithuania - 1.10 Serbia

  • 29th v 144th.
  • Group G is a tough group to predict, with Bulgaria, Hungary, these 2, and Montenegro.

19:45 - Sweden v Belgium - 2.10 Belgium

  • 23rd v 4th (2nd highest ranked European team on the World Rankings).
  • Group F should hold no fears for Belgium if playing to their ranking.

Spanish Segunda

20:00 - FC Cartagena v Lugo - 1.65 FC Cartagena

Cartagena - 9th

  • After 3 wins in 4, they are now back to 2 consecutive defeats conceding 8 goals.
  • Conceded last 4 at home.
  • Have beaten 20th and 21st at home; 1-1 last head-to-head.
  • 2 goals scored in 4/5 homes v 16th and lower.
  • 15/20 goals conceded at home 2nd half.
  • 12/16 goals scored at home 2nd half.

Lugo - 22nd

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • No win in 11 and in 7 away.
  • Opponents have scored first in 14/16 away.
  • Not beaten a top 14 side away.
  • 9/11 goals scored away 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Strong 2nd half scoring for both teams so goals 2nd half expected, particularly after a goal-less draw first half.
  • Cartagena's home form is not all that but they are scoring 2 goals v 16th and lower at home and that could be enough v bottom of the league.

Ireland First Division

19:45 - Bray v Wexford - 2.05 Bray

  • 2 wins and 3 consecutive draws for Bray. 3-1 and 0-0 at home.
  • Bray failed to score only once. Both teams have scored in 3 of Bray's last 4 matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Draw, Win for Wexford. The wins came at home. 2-1 loss and a 0-0 away.
  • Unlikely we get much from such a small sample of matches but I have the time to take a look.

19:45 - Galway v Longford - 1.33 Galway

  • 5 consecutive wins for Galway. They are yet to concede that 2nd goal. 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Loss, Draw, Draw, Draw, Loss for Longford this season. 1-1-0-0-0 goals scored. This looks straightforward for Galway.

19:45 - Kerry v Athlone - 1.85 Athlone

  • Newly promoted Kerry are yet to win, 4 losses and a draw. 0-1-1-1-1 goals scored - they have scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime Kerry.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Loss, Draw for Athlone. 3-3-0-0-2 goals scored. If Athlone can ignite those 2 goals that could be enough. Kerry could well score - are they layable if leading?

19:45 - Treaty Utd v Waterford - 1.57 Waterford

  • No win yet for Treaty, Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss, Draw, conceding 5 goals last 2 matches. 0-0-1-0-2 goals scored.
  • Win, Draw, Loss, Win, Draw for Waterford scoring 3-1-0-1-2 so they have a goal threat v a Treaty-only scoring v Athlone.
  • Athlone have not had a 0-0 at halftime this season so far.

20:00 - Finn Harps v Cobh Ramblers - 2.50 Finn Harps

  • Loss, Loss, Draw, Draw, Win for Finn Harps, Loss, Draw, Draw at home. 3 consecutive under 2.5 goals.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's at halftime.
  • Win, Win, Draw, Win, Loss this season. Win, Draw, Win away keeping clean sheets in those 3 away matches.
  • Only beaten by 100% wins Galway this season, last match.
  • I like to look of Cobh Ramblers form here, particularly away but...2.50 the favourite is a concern.

Turkish Lig 1

17:00 - Denizlispor v Boluspor - 2.30 Boluspor

Denizlispor - 18th

  • Loss, Draw, Loss, Loss at home recently.
  • 3-0 loss last head-to-head.
  • Not beaten the top 8 home or away.
  • Failed to score in all bar 1 home match v the top 11.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home, 2 at fulltime.

Boluspor - 9th

  • Only 1 win in 6 came v title hunting Keciorengucu, and the odds were admittedly similar to today's.
  • No win in 10 away.
  • Conceded last 8 and last 4 away.
  • Not played bottom 2 away but only 2 wins all season away were 0-1.

Conclusions

  • Expect 2nd half goals if none first half. Big scalp for Boluspor latest v 5th in the league - this may be an easier assignment BUT Boluspor are poor away, only 2 away 0-1 wins.
  • Denizlispor have not beaten a top 8 side home or away and tend to fail to score v top 11. I have time to research this as you can see, but as ever 2.3 means...I can make as equally as strong an argument for opposing both teams!
  • Must win really for both teams. Boluspor's 3 points recently, if added to here, takes them on the cusp of a promotion play-off place.
  • Den will still be in the relegation zone with a win but it will take them within a point of safety.

17:00 - Samsunspor v Altinordu - 1.35 Samsunspor

Samsunspor - 1st

  • A point above Turkish Yorkshiremen Eyupspor - automatic promotion awaits a top 2 berth.
  • 8 wins and a draw last 9 matches.
  • 4 consecutive wins, 5 at home.
  • No defeat in 17 and in 11 at home.
  • Scored last 9 and last 11 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 at home.
  • 2-1 loss last head-to-head.
  • 7 wins and a draw at home v 10th and lower.
  • 15 goals scored at home last 30 mins.

Altinordu - 16th

  • Only 2 wins since 28th October.
  • 7 consecutive away defeats.
  • No draw in 10 away.
  • Conceded last 7 and last 8 away.
  • 3 2-1 defeats and a 4-0 defeat v the top 6 away.
  • 92% conceding rate this season.
  • 8/12 goals scored away 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Points required by both teams for different reasons. The obvious and logical choice is Samsunspor in their tussle for a top 2 place and automatic promotion. Altinordu have lost 2-1 3 times away, so if scoring may not win today. They have that 92% concession rate so do not expect a clean sheet.
  • Samsunspor are strong goalscorers last 1/2 hour of home matches.