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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, June 23, 2017

19:45 - Galway Utd v Bray -  2.54 Bray

  • 1-0 Bray in the last head to head.
  • This is 11th v 3rd in the Irish Premier Division.

Galway

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 2 wins were 2-1.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded in 12 of their last 15 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of 9 at home.
  • Not won to nil at home.

Bray

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 2-0-3-3 scored last 3 matches.
  • Only 5 under 2.5 goals matches this season.
  • Only 1 away draw.
  • Unbeaten v bottom 3.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today with, it looks like, Galway not winning so lay Galway if Galway score first.
  • Bray are scoring for fun of late so that emphasises the above position.
  • Galway do not do wins to nil at home so should be opposed with any 1-0 or 2-0.

19:45 - Bohemians v Sligo Rovers - 2.24 Bohs

  • The home team has tended to win recent head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 9th in the Irish Premier Division.

Bohs

  • Only 2 draws all season.
  • Only 2 home wins.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 0-0-2-0-1-0 scored at home recently. Inconsistent.

Sligo

  • Only 3 losses in 11 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No win in 9 away but don't discount the draw.
  • Conceded in their last 9 away.
  • No away win.
  • Scored and conceded in all aways v 5th and lower.

Conceded

  • Tough to call with Bohs misfiring, then scoring, then misfiring.
  • Sligo have their both teams to score pattern but will Bohs deliver their part? They could do as Sligo have only 3 clean sheets.
  • Lay any late draw.
  • I think Sligo will concede so would lay Sligo if Sligo scored first.

19:45 - Derry v Cork City - 1.72 Cork

  • 0-0 and 3-0 Cork in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 5th v 1st in the Irish Premier Division.

Derry

  • Only 1 loss in 11 came last match, a 3-2.
  • 2 draws and 3 wins last 5 home matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in each of their last 5 at home.
  • Scored 2+ in each of their last 4 home matches.
  • No home 0-0.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • Only 2 home losses. Beat 2nd 3-1 at home.

Cork

  • Unbeaten. All wins bar 1 draw.
  • Scored every match.
  • All over 2.5 goals bar 3 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in each of their last 5 matches.
  • All wins away bar a single draw.

Conclusions

  • Tough to oppose Cork at the moment despite Derry showing they have 2+ goals in them v top 3 at home.
  • 2-2 pre match back perhaps as a trading angle in case Cork continue to be unbeaten and Derry score 2 goals v a top 3 team again at home. Remember we don't need a 2-2, rather the hint of one on order to profit as a trader.
  • I have to be with Cork not to lose today based on season long form, until they show some kind of vulnerability.

19:45 - FYR Macedonia u21 v Portugal u21 - 1.15 Portugal

  • This is the UEFA U21 Championship and when you see odds of 1.15 it relays an expectation for 3/4 goals minimum from the Portugeuse.
  • So far this campaign, FYE lost 5-0 to Spain u21 and drew 2-2 with Serbia u21.
  • Portugal u21 beat Serbia u21 2-0 and lost 1-3 to Spain.
  • With limited form to work from, it is a case of faith in the market here and 3/4 goals from the Portugeuse.

19:45 - Serbia u21 v Spain u21 - 1.55 Spain u21

  • 8 goals in 2 matches so far for Spain.
  • Serbia u21 have conceded 2 goals in each of their 2 matches v Portugal u21 and Macedonia u21, both teams easily beaten by the Spanish.
  • I would have expected shorter odds here and sould be surprised if Serbia u21 led. They do have goals in them so I would lay them should they score first v the Spanish who quite obviously have strong goal scoring credentials and should be scoring 2+ goals today.

20:00 - Shamrock Rovers v Drogheda - 1.4 Shamrock

  • 2-1 Drogs in the last head to head.
  • This is 4th v 10th in the Irish Premier Division.

Shamrock

  • Failed to score only once.
  • Undefeated in 7 at home.
  • Scored in their last 16 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 2 home losses v 1st and 5th.
  • Wins at home v 7th, 8th, 9th and 11th.

Drogheda

  • No win in 8 and 3 away.
  • Failed to score in their last 6 matches.
  • 3 0-0's in their last 4 matches.
  • Have lost away to all top 6.

Conclusions

  • Drogs should be losing here and conceding at least 2, which gives us an angle. Lay Drogs if they score first.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Shamrock are highly likely to score so note that if 0-0 for a while or they are conceding.

20:00 - Dundalk v Finn Harps - 1.21 Dundalk

  • 2 consecutive 2-0 Dundalk wins in head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 8th in the Irish Premier Division.

Dundalk

  • Only 1 draw.
  • 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only losses at home v top 3.

Finn Harps

  • Only 3 draws.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away matches.
  • Lost to all top 4 home and away.

Conclusions

  • This should be as emphatic as the market suggests.
  • Finn Harps have a 100% loss record v top 4 which tells us to back Dundalk if Finn Harps score first.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

TENNIS

AEGON

Querrey v Muller - 1.68 Muller

  • Querrey did what Murray could not. Beat Thompson, albeit in 3 sets.
  • 27th v 28th.
  • Last head to heads 2009.
  • Muller impressed in beating Tsonga on grass last match.2 straight sets too. He is also a winner at s-Hertogenbosch on grass so obviously loving these Wimbledon warm ups.
  • On that basis alone, Querrey must be opposed if winning the first set.

Cilic v Young - 1.17 Cilic

  • Cilic continues to play as per his ranking.
  • 8th v 44th.
  • 2-0 head to heads Cilic, last in 2015 was a 3 setter.
  • Donald had walkover as Kyrgios retired. He beat 39th Troiki 2-0 next match.
  • He has shown on clay that he is vulnerable to solid players - the likes of Chung, Verdasco.
  • Semi's for Cilic v Karlovic last grass court event. Quarters on clay in Rome and Roland Garros. This should go as per the market and the rankings but Donald may offer enough resistance to allow a better Cilic price.

Dimitrov v Medvedev - 1.37 Dimi

  • Medvedev I suppose was entitled to beat Kokkakis who is still feeling his way back to the ATP tour.
  • 12th v 63rd.
  • Quarters for Medvedev on grass at 's-Hertogenbosch.
  • 106th and 50th ranked beaten by Dimitrov here.
  • I am not wholly taken by Dimitrov here. Is he going to win 2-0? But Medevedev has only beaten highest ranked 22nd on grass this year. Is 12th a step too far?
  • Value for me would be a lay of Dimitrov if Dimitrov wins the first set.

Berdych v Lopez - 1.92 Berdych

  • Deep respect from the market for Lopez's ability on grass. Is he a good tournament winner bet for Wimbledon (from a trading perspective - he may go deep?).
  • 13th v 40th.
  • Lopez won in the quarters in Stuttgart in the last head to head, this year,after losing first set tie breaker.
  • Berdych was 1.5 fav there and the market has pushed his odds out to 1.92.
  • I must lay Berdych (or back Lopez) if Berdych wins the first set. Lopez on grass this year has proven to be very reliable. He has had 6 tie breakers in his last 5 matches so that does give the opponent a glimmer.

GERRY WEBER

Khachanov v Rublev - 1.5 Khac

  • Not a match which appeals to me. Karen and Rublev are relatively unknown to me. Acknowledge the market if you want to play. Note Rublev beat Youznhy first set with ease yet lost 2nd set.
  • 56th v 117th. This is not a match which appeals.
  • 7-6 7-5 to Rub when these 2 met 2016 on hard.
  • Karen is here because Nishikori retired. Rublev is an oftentime Challenger player but beat a recently-in-form Youzhny yesterday.
  • I have no trading angle.

Gasquet v  Haase - 1.43 Gasquet

  • The Haase farewell tour continues in Germany.
  • 23rd v 46th.
  • Gasquet has won the most recent 2 head to heads in 3 sets but was at odds of 1.08 and 1.22. Slight bump in the odds today.
  • Haase has thoroughly deserved his place here, slaying the terrier Ferrer in typical 3 sets and Dominic Thiem in 2 sets, the 2nd a tie breaker. Solid stuff.
  • Monfils and Tomic the losers v Gasquet.
  • Thiem really should have beaten Haase so perhaps he is fatigued I don't know. If Haase is renewed then we will expect a fight if he loses the first set. Lay Gasquet if Gas is a first set winner.
  • Or do we simply lay the first set winner?

Federer v Mayer - 1.1 Fed

  • Cast your mind back last year and you would be a fed layer at 1.11. Far too short if Mayer can channel some of his performances from Germany last year including an admitted loss to the Fed but making the Swiss master work damn hard.
  • On that basis 1.11 to lay makes great appeal as a YAZZ trade  - "the only way is up'. Risk is low and the possibilities for profit far greater. Mayer beat solid top 20 player Pouille yesterday, coming from a set down too. Fed is in for a battle.
  • 7-6 7-6 last year in Stuttgart and 6-0 7-6 in Halle last year to the Fed. He is likely to win but I would want to see a tie breaker first set in order to profit from a lay at 1.1.

Agut v Alex Zverev - 1.35 Alex

  • 18th v 21st.
  • Rankings suggest a tight match. The market does not.
  • In the semi finals in Munich this year, Alex won 7-5 7-5.
  • Semi's in 's-Hertogenbosch for Alex going down to the tournament winner.
  • Verdasco and Muller the recent victors over Zverev.
  • Agut lost to Alex, Karlovic, Novak and Nadal recently.
  • A suggestion Agut could cause problems and I would be happy to back Alex if his odds reach 1.8 or thereabouts.

WTA Birmingham

Niggly market here in Birmingham sees lowest priced favourite at 1.6.

Safarova v Gavrilova - 1.67 Saf

  • 28th v 27th.
  • Last 2 head to heads were shared and 6-2 6-2 so strange that they should each be so emphatic beating each other.
  • The favourite has won the last 4 head to heads.
  • 5 of Saf's last 6 matches were 3 setters, all on grass.
  • 3 of Gav's last 4 were 3 setters, all on grass.
  • But we rarely see a 3-setter in head to heads. A no play for me. This could be 2-0 to one of these 2 but logic (rankings and recent matches) suggests 3 sets. Lack of congruity.

Mladenovic v Kvitova - 1.64 Kvitova

  • 19th v 15th in the rankings.
  • Petra Kvitova has won the last 2 head to heads when at far shorter odds than todays quarter final.
  • Petra has breezed through her 2 matches here. Mladenovic has won in 2 sets too but note the pattern. The second set was a tie breaker in both matches.
  • This is a sharp increase in quality for Mladenovic so I would expect the tie breaker pattern to continue if Mlad wins the first set. She should be layed in the hope the 2nd set retains its tightness.
  • Little to learn from Kvitovas 2 opponents who she was expected to easily beat.
  • Petra had a superb run on clay. Final, Final, Quarters, Final so she is used to this rarified air which further enhances my initial conclusions.

Muguruza v Vanderweghe - 1.75 Van

  • 6th v 23rd. Mug is hardly priced as a top 10 player here. She is not even favourite.
  • Coco has had the best of the head to heads.
  • Tough to call this one. We must acknowledge a top 6 player but Cocos beating of Konta on Kontas patch impressed.
  • Garbine is outstanding on clay but her grass court form in 2016 was poor.
  • Coco last year on grass was superb. Something I pointed out yesterday. I will be with Coco here and that means backing her at over evens if that eventuality arises or laying Garbine if Garbine wins the first set.

Ashleigh Barty v Camila Giorgi  - 1.61 Barty

  • 85th v 90th and immediately we have 2 quite high ranked players who may not be ultra reliable. Note that caveat.
  • Barty won the 2017 head to head on clay.
  • Giorgi has battled through the qualifiers to be here. 2 setter (tie breaker 2nd set) and 3 setter so she has continued the battle here to the quarters.
  • Barty lost to Konta in Nottingham and, like Giorgi, has had a 2 setter win (tie breaker 2nd set) and a 3 setter win.
  • Slight favour to Barty here because she has actually beaten Giorgi this year and very recently. Note also that Giorgi had to get through qualifiers.
  • One other pattern to note is that of the 2nd set tie breaker in the 2 set wins for these 2. It does hint at laying the first set winner (preference for Giorgi to win first set for me as she is perceived as the weakest link).

Mallorca

Another womens tournament with a tight market. Do remember that we do not have to trade every match. This is a lesson you should learn. Pick your battles. Look at quality over quantity and if you have no trading angle, have the discipline to walk away, precisely as we do in the football. I will research these matches below as an angle may present itself but based on odds alone , they look too tough to call.

Bellis v Pliskova - 1.93 Bellis

  • 58th v 57th. We see this a lot today. Tight rankings. And that I suppose is the reason that there is not really a favourite. Remember in the case of evens/evens the bookies will tend to place one player at odds on and the other at odds against in order to create their over round.
  • No head to heads.
  • Bellis has lost to 2 solid yard sticks recently in Kiki Bertens who we know had a superb run on clay, and Caroline Wozniacki in the French Open (3 sets v a renewed Wozza).
  • I see no grass form for Bellis last year.
  • Pliskova has had some poor results, including a first round exit at Roland Garros, a first round exit last grass tournament but won in 3 sets v 30th ranked Babos and in a tie breaker v Schiavone. Remember we layed Pliskova at 1.04 in that match and her odds rose to about 1.69! Schiavone we know is a fighter. What of Bellis?
  • Pliskova had a poor Wimbledon last year and a poor grass season last year. it did not last long for her.
  • After all that is done, I actually personally like Bellis and her recent form compared with Pliskovas and on that basis I would be keener to lay a Pliskova first set win than a Bellis first set win.

Konjuh v Sevastova - 1.68 Konjuh

  • 34th v 26th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Semi final for Konjuh at  's-Hertogenbosch. 3 set win v Jabeur and a win over Azarenka (questionable form for Az) in this tournament.
  • 3 set wins for Sevastova in her 2 matches suggests we lay a Sevastova first set win. That is Sevs 3rd consecutive 3 setter on grass this year.

Goerges v Lisicki - 1.79 Goerges

  • 45th v 115th. What a drop in the rankings for Sabine Lisiki. IS that injury based like Del Potro?
  • Most recent head to head was 2015 in Miami and saw 2 tie breakers, won by each player.
  • 6-1 6-2 for Goerges this tournament. No messing about at all.
  • Lisiki came through via a retirement for our old pal Kiki Bertens and a straight sets win over 48th ranked.
  • I have question marks over Lisiki She has been plying her trade recently in Asia, and in peripheral events such as Luxembourg and Honolulu.
  • Goerges has been ultra efficient and that may be enough to lay Lisiki if Lisiki wins the first set. Remember he is only really here thanks to a Beefy Curtains retirement first round.