There were a few profitable trading angles yesterday in the Europa League. Copenhagen equalised quickly after going a goal down. FC Nordsjaelland came from a goal down to win 2-1. The problems with early Europa League matches is that the teams are unknown. Irtysh I put up on Twitter as possible equalisers but, despite absolute in-play stats dominance, they failed to equalise.
Today we return to league football - Irish league dominates.
IRISH PREMIER DIVISION
19:45 - Bohemians v Bray - 1.25 Bohemians
- 2-1 and 1-3 Bohemians in the last 2 head to heads.
- Only 1 win in 8 matches.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- Only 1 0-0 at home.
- Unbeaten v 9th and 10th albeit 3 draws and 2 wins v Bray.
- Only 4 wins all season. Did win their last home match.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- 12 consecutive away defeats.
- Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 10 away matches.
- Not scored 2 goals in any away match.
- Based on Bray alone, Bohs should record another win. Bohs may concede though but should record another win. Simple angle in.
20:00 - St Patricks v Limerick - 1.36 St Patricks
- 2 consecutive St Pats 1-0 wins in head to heads.
St Pats (6th)
- 7 consecutive defeats.
- Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- No draw in 12 matches.
- Conceded in their last 8 matches.
- Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 home matches.
- Only 1 loss at home v 3rd and lower. v 5th, 7th and 8th, conceded 2+ goals.
- Only 5 wins.
- Only 1 win home and away v top 6 sides.
- Both sides are pretty poor this season. St Pats, for me, look far too short. I would not back them at 1.36 odds. 7 consecutive defeats, conceding 2+ goals in each of their last 4 at home, conceding 2+ goals v 5th, 7th and 8th.
- The value is in laying St Pats, particularly if they score first. They look a little rocky. The problem is that Limerick are poor. Only 1 win v top 6 sides home and away.
IRISH FIRST DIVISION
19:45 - Cabinteely v Cobh Ramblers - 2.28 Cabinteely
- 2 consecutive 1-0 Cobh wins in head to heads.
- No draw at home.
- Have lost to 8th and 9th at home, and beat 10th at home.
- Only 1 draw all season was a 0-0.
- 5 losses in 7 matches at home v 4th and lower.
Cobh Ramblers (8th)
- 2 losses in 3 matches.
- 3 consecutive 2-1 scorelines, 2 were losses.
- Unbeaten home and away v 7th and lower. v 6th and lower away, scored and conceded in 4/5 away matches without losing.
- Lay any late draw and of course any late 0-0.
- Strictly on form, Cobh Ramblers could concede but not lose today. That's the angle I'll enter into.
19:45 - Drogheda v Athlone - 1.09 Drogheda
- 3 1-0 wins in 4 head to heads. Drogs do not tend to concede but 1-0 is hardly the scoreline of a 1.09 shot.
- Only 1 home loss.
- Beat Athlone 6-0 at home.
- 4/4 wins at home v 7th and lower.
- All defeats bar 2 1-1 draws.
- 10 consecutive away defeats.
- Conceded in their last 20 matches.
- 3-0, 6-0, 7-0, 4-0 away v top 4 teams.
- 1.09 suggests a repeat of the 3+ goals Athlone concede away v the top 4.
- The value? Back 1-0 Drogheda. They have struggled to score 2 goals in 3 of the last 4 head to heads.
19:45 - UCD v Galway Utd - 2.34 UCD
- 1-1 and 2-0 Galway in the last 2 head to heads.
- 4 defeats, 3 came away.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Scored in their last 10 at home.
- 100% over 1.5 goals.
- Only 1 home loss. scored and conceded in 8/10 matches at home.
Galway Utd (5th)
- 2 consecutive wins.
- 1-1 and 2-2 away v the top 2 this season.
- The market is non committal because Galway are unbeaten v 1st in the league.
- We should expect 2 goals at least today. UCD are highly likely to score. If leading 1-0 for a while, I'd lay UCD given those Galway draws away v top 2.
20:00 - Finn Harps v Shelbourne - 2.34 Shelbourne
- 1-0 Finn and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
Finn Harps (3rd)
- 4 wins in 5 matches.
- 3 consecutive clean sheets.
- 3 home defeats in 5 matches.
- No draw in 9 at home.
- Only 1 0-0 this season.
- Scored and conceded at home v top 3, only 1 win.
- Only 3 defeats.
- No defeat in 6 away.
- Scored in their last 6 away.
- 3 1-1 draws and a 2-1 loss away v the top 4.
- Scored and conceded away v the top 6 with only 1 win.
- Both teams to score looks a strong angle here today with Shelbourne perhaps not winning, given their 3 1-1 draws and 2-1 loss away v the top 4.
18:00 - AaB v FC Midtjylland - 2 FC Midtjylland
- FC Midtjylland came 1st last year. They began this season with a 0-0 draw.
- Already it's must-win territory for FC Midtjylland. Brondby have already won.
- FC Midtjylland should feel confident based on head to heads. 4-1-3-3 goals scored by FC Midtjylland in the last 4 head to heads.
- AaB won their opening match 0-1.
- I would enter this match expecting FC Midtjylland to push for an already much needed first win. Remember these were league leaders last year.
UEFA U19 Championship
16:30 - Ukraine U19 v England U19 - 1.81 England U19
- 6 wins and a 0-0 in Ukraine's last 7 UEFA U19 Championship matches. 3 consecutive 2-1 wins v Serbia u19, Romania u19 and France U19. A French red card did for them, so that latter scoreline needs to be put into context.
- 15 wins and a 0-2 loss to Macedonia u19 for England U19 keeps that 'feel good' momentum for England sides.
- Worryingly, England U19 have conceded 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches. 0-2 loss to Macedonia u19 and 2-3 win v Turkey u19.
- England u19 did lead 1-3 in that match.
- Both sides are in excellent recent form, but I note that Ukraine u19 needed a red card from France u19 to beat them. I also note that England u19 have conceded 2 goals in 2 consecutive matches.
- This might suggest laying the first team to score.
18:30 - Turkey U19 v France U19 - 1.5 France U19
- Turkey u19 have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Turkey u19 have scored 2+ goals in 6 of their last 7 matches.
- 5 wins in 6 matches for France U19. France U19 only lost to Ukraine u19 as I noted above care of a red card.
- Note Turkey u19's ability to score 2 goals. I'd still take on the Turks if they score 2 goals today.