Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

There were a few profitable trading angles yesterday in the Europa League. Copenhagen equalised quickly after going a goal down. FC Nordsjaelland came from a goal down to win 2-1. The problems with early Europa League matches is that the teams are unknown. Irtysh I put up on Twitter as possible equalisers but, despite absolute in-play stats dominance, they failed to equalise.
Today we return to league football - Irish league dominates.

IRISH PREMIER DIVISION

19:45 - Bohemians v Bray - 1.25 Bohemians

  • 2-1 and 1-3 Bohemians in the last 2 head to heads.

Bohs (8th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Unbeaten v 9th and 10th albeit 3 draws and 2 wins v Bray.

Bray (10th)

  • Only 4 wins all season. Did win their last home match.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 12 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 10 away matches.
  • Not scored 2 goals in any away match.

Conclusions

  • Based on Bray alone, Bohs should record another win. Bohs may concede though but should record another win. Simple angle in.

20:00 - St Patricks v Limerick - 1.36 St Patricks

  • 2 consecutive St Pats 1-0 wins in head to heads.

St Pats (6th)

  • 7 consecutive defeats.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • No draw in 12 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 8 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 home matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 3rd and lower. v 5th, 7th and 8th, conceded 2+ goals.

Limerick (9th)

  • Only 5 wins.
  • Only 1 win home and away v top 6 sides.

Conclusions

  • Both sides are pretty poor this season. St Pats, for me, look far too short. I would not back them at 1.36 odds. 7 consecutive defeats, conceding 2+ goals in each of their last 4 at home, conceding 2+ goals v 5th, 7th and 8th.
  • The value is in laying St Pats, particularly if they score first. They look a little rocky. The problem is that Limerick are poor. Only 1 win v top 6 sides home and away.

IRISH FIRST DIVISION

19:45 - Cabinteely v Cobh Ramblers - 2.28 Cabinteely

  • 2 consecutive 1-0 Cobh wins in head to heads.

Cabinteely (7th)

  • No draw at home.
  • Have lost to 8th and 9th at home, and beat 10th at home.
  • Only 1 draw all season was a 0-0.
  • 5 losses in 7 matches at home v 4th and lower.

Cobh Ramblers (8th)

  • 2 losses in 3 matches.
  • 3 consecutive 2-1 scorelines, 2 were losses.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 7th and lower. v 6th and lower away, scored and conceded in 4/5 away matches without losing.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw and of course any late 0-0.
  • Strictly on form, Cobh Ramblers could concede but not lose today. That's the angle I'll enter into.

19:45 - Drogheda v Athlone - 1.09 Drogheda

  • 3 1-0 wins in 4 head to heads. Drogs do not tend to concede but 1-0 is hardly the scoreline of a 1.09 shot.

Drogheda (2nd)

  • Only 1 home loss.
  • Beat Athlone 6-0 at home.
  • 4/4 wins at home v 7th and lower.

Athlone (10th)

  • All defeats bar 2 1-1 draws.
  • 10 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 20 matches.
  • 3-0, 6-0, 7-0, 4-0 away v top 4 teams.

Conclusions

  • 1.09 suggests a repeat of the 3+ goals Athlone concede away v the top 4.
  • The value? Back 1-0 Drogheda. They have struggled to score 2 goals in 3 of the last 4 head to heads.

19:45 - UCD v Galway Utd - 2.34 UCD

  • 1-1 and 2-0 Galway in the last 2 head to heads.

UCD(1st)

  • 4 defeats, 3 came away.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • Only 1 home loss. scored and conceded in 8/10 matches at home.

Galway Utd (5th)

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • 1-1 and 2-2 away v the top 2 this season.

Conclusions

  • The market is non committal because Galway are unbeaten v 1st in the league.
  • We should expect 2 goals at least today. UCD are highly likely to score. If leading 1-0 for a while, I'd lay UCD given those Galway draws away v top 2.

20:00 - Finn Harps v Shelbourne - 2.34 Shelbourne

  • 1-0 Finn and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Finn Harps (3rd)

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 3 home defeats in 5 matches.
  • No draw in 9 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 this season.
  • Scored and conceded at home v top 3, only 1 win.

Shelbourne (4th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • No defeat in 6 away.
  • Scored in their last 6 away.
  • 3 1-1 draws and a 2-1 loss away v the top 4.
  • Scored and conceded away v the top 6 with only 1 win.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score looks a strong angle here today with Shelbourne perhaps not winning, given their 3 1-1 draws and 2-1 loss away v the top 4.

DANISH SUPERLIGA

18:00 - AaB v FC Midtjylland - 2 FC Midtjylland

  • FC Midtjylland came 1st last year. They began this season with a 0-0 draw.
  • Already it's must-win territory for FC Midtjylland. Brondby have already won.
  • FC Midtjylland should feel confident based on head to heads. 4-1-3-3 goals scored by FC Midtjylland in the last 4 head to heads.
  • AaB won their opening match 0-1.
  • I would enter this match expecting FC Midtjylland to push for an already much needed first win. Remember these were league leaders last year.

UEFA U19 Championship

16:30 - Ukraine U19 v England U19 - 1.81 England U19

  • 6 wins and a 0-0 in Ukraine's last 7 UEFA U19 Championship matches. 3 consecutive 2-1 wins v Serbia u19, Romania u19 and France U19. A French red card did for them, so that latter scoreline needs to be put into context.
  • 15 wins and a 0-2 loss to Macedonia u19 for England U19 keeps that 'feel good' momentum for England sides.
  • Worryingly, England U19 have conceded 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches. 0-2 loss to Macedonia u19 and 2-3 win v Turkey u19.
  • England u19 did lead 1-3 in that match.
  • Both sides are in excellent recent form, but I note that Ukraine u19 needed a red card from France u19 to beat them. I also note that England u19 have conceded 2 goals in 2 consecutive matches.
  • This might suggest laying the first team to score.

18:30 - Turkey U19 v France U19 - 1.5 France U19

  • Turkey u19 have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Turkey u19 have scored 2+ goals in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 5 wins in 6 matches for France U19. France U19 only lost to Ukraine u19 as I noted above care of a red card.
  • Note Turkey u19's ability to score 2 goals. I'd still take on the Turks if they score 2 goals today.