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From the cup to the leagues. I will do a quick DRT Facebook video.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Middlesbrough v Stoke City - 2.52 Stoke

  • -1.5 goals: There have been -1.5 goals in 11/16 Middlesbrough home matches and -2.5 goals in 12/19 Stoke away matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 9/11 Middlesbrough home matches.

Middlesbrough - 20th

  • All 4 wins this season came at home.
  • All 4 wins were 1-0.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (55%).
  • All 4 home wins came v 17th and lower.

Stoke City - 22nd

  • 2 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 5 wins only, 2 came away.
  • 4 losses in 5 matches away.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away.
  • 3/5 wins this season came v 21st at home, 23rd at home and 24th away 2-4.

Conclusions

  • The market suggests this is tough to call and we can see with these 2 strugglers, that they are winning v fellow strugglers! If Middlesbrough score first, lay them as they tend to freeze out at 1-0 (and take out 1-0 insurance).
  • No surprise to see a 0-0 at halftime given that Boro record.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

19:45 - Hibernian v Rangers - 1.44 Rangers

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 6/9 Hibernian home matches against top half non-Big One teams and in 8/10 Rangers away matches against top-half teams. Hibernian have scored first in 9/11 home matches.

Hibernian - 6th

  • Only 2 losses in 12 matches came within the last 2 away matches.
  • 2 wins in 3 at home.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 5 at home.
  • 12 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 1-1 v Celtic at home and unbeaten v top 10 at home, albeit 5 score draws.

Rangers - 2nd

  • Only loss v Celtic.
  • 6 wins and a draw last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score only v Celtic.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 11 of their last 12 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 7 and last 5 away.
  • 6-1 win over Hibs earlier this season.

Conclusions

  • Hibs are clearly in rude health but were tonked mightily by Rangers when they last met. Still Hibs are unbeaten at home v the top 10 and that includes a 1-1 v Celtic.
  • I would have to favour Rangers but will not be surprised by a sturdy display from Hibs today. Do remember though that a lot of score draws at home suggests Hibs may not be able to hold onto a lead.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Hoffenheim v Dortmund - 1.73 Dortmund

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Hoffenheim home matches against top-six teams and in 12/14 B. Dortmund away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 6/10 Hoffenheim home matches against top-six teams.

Hoffenheim - 8th

  • Let's play a game of 'which Hoff will turn up today?'
  • A run of 3 losses and a draw ended with a 0-2 win v Union Berlin - a return to the 2 goal scoring we saw prior to that recent blip.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No win in 3 at home.
  • Scored last 10 and last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Conceded 3 goals in both defeats v the top 2.
  • All 4 home losses v the top 13.
  • 12 of 18 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Dortmund - 3rd

  • Only 2 losses came away.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not beaten 4th-12th away.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Hoff deserved the win v Union Berlin, a side beating Dortmund at home but I don't think this collateral form is translatable here!
  • Hoff are simply unreliable. They have no win in 3 at home and may struggle v Dortmund. BUT Dortmund are yet to beat 4th-12th away. They are scoring 2+ goals.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Fiorentina v Roma - 2.48 Roma

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 12/15 Fiorentina home matches and in 9/12 Roma away matches. There have been -1.5 goals in 10/20 Fiorentina home matches.

Fiorentina - 13th

  • No win in 6 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 8 matches and last 4 at home.
  • No win home or away v the top 9.
  • 6 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Roma - 4th

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away (62%).
  • Unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.
  • 4 of 5 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Roma on form stand out clearly. Only 2 losses. But they tend to be barren first half away. They are unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower so note that if Fiorentina score first.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Eibar v Granada - 2.16 Eibar

  • Match outcome: Eibar have won 8/11 home matches against middle-third teams while Granada CF have lost by two or more goals in 4/8 away matches. Granada CF have conceded first in 6/8 away matches.

Eibar - 16th

  • 4 losses and a 0-0 last 5 matches.
  • 4 losses in 5 at home.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Conceded last 5 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (62%).
  • Not played 5th-12th at home.
  • All 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Granada - 9th

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away losses.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.
  • 9 of 13 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market suggests this is too tough to call. I don't like the gaps in form for Eibar at home. I do like Granada away - unbeaten v 12th and lower. Enough to give them a cursory nod? They are newly promoted, hence the typical lack of commitment from the market to a newly promoted side.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring patterns for both sides so note that if 0-0 at halftime.

BELGIAN JULIPER LEAGUE

19:30 - Mechelen v Oostende - 1.71 Mechelen

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 6/9 KV Mechelen home matches and +2.5 goals in 7/9 KV Mechelen home matches. KV Oostende have lost 8/9 away matches against top-half teams.

Mechelen - 8th

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in those matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 9 and last 9 at home.
  • All 3 home wins were 3-1 v 2nd, 7th, 16th.
  • 2-1 loss v Oostende earlier this season.
  • 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Oostende - 13th

  • 2 wins in 3 came at home.
  • 6 consecutive away losses.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 8.
  • Only 1 away win v 10th.

Conclusions

  • Mechelen may get away with it if Oostende have only the 1 away win all season and no clean sheets and 6 consecutive away defeats.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - RKC Waalwijk v Twente - 2.58 RKC

  • 1st goal: Waalwijk have conceded first in 6/8 home matches and they have lost 6/8 home matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 6/8 Twente away matches.

RKC Waalwijk - 18th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 2 consecutive losses.
  • Only 2 clean sheets came in those wins.
  • Scored in their last 8 and last 6 at home.
  • Only home win v 9th.
  • Only played 2 of 10th and lower at home.
  • 3-3 the last time these 2 met.
  • 7 goals conceded in the last 15 minutes of the 2nd half at home.

Twente - 12th

  • 8 losses, 2 wins and  a draw in the last 11 matches.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 away matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Wins away v 10th and 14th.
  • 6 goals conceded last 15 minutes of away matches.

Conclusions

  • The market suggests it's too tough to call.
  • Only 2 wins plays 8 losses in 11. These 2 are not in the best of form.
  • What I would take out of this match is the last 15 minutes conceding for both sides. It might offer an angle late on? Both sides have only 2 clean sheets.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - Volendam v De Graafschap - 2.45 Volendam

  • 1st goal: Volendam have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against top-six teams while De Graafschap have won the first half in 5/9 away matches. De Graafschap have scored first in 7/9 away matches.

Volendam - 4th

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 8 consecutive wins, 4 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Lost to 1st at home but not played 2nd-6th at home.

De Graafschap - 3rd

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 3 consecutive score draws.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 and last 7 away.
  • Not played top 6 away.
  • 3-0 win v Volendam the last time these 2 met.
  • 9 of 10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Gaps in form clouds this match. Both sides yet really to meet fellow top 6 sides. Both sides in decent form too.....and guess what....2.45 the favourite relays that it is tough to chose a side.
  • Do note De Graafschap tend to concede 90% of their away goals 2nd half.

MVV v Helmond - 1.60 MVV

  • 1st goal: Maastricht have scored first in 10/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Helmond have lost 13/18 away matches. Maastricht have won 10/13 home matches against bottom-six teams.

MVV - 17th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 1 win in 6.
  • 2 wins and a draw last 3 home matches.
  • No defeat in 5 at home.
  • Beat 15th and 18th at home.
  • 3-1 loss v Helmond earlier this season.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 8 of 12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Helmond Sport - 19th

  • 6 losses and 2 draws last 8 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 9 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Conceded last 14 matches and last 9 away.
  • Only away win v 20th.

Conclusions

  • 2 strugglers in a lesser league. Caution. No ultra strong angles bar to say MVV have strong 2nd half scoring and conceding angles.
  • Helmond's only away win came v 20th. Signal to expect them NOT to win?

Eindhoven v NEC - 1.88 NEC

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 11/14 FC Eindhoven home matches and in 11/17 NEC away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 12/20 FC Eindhoven home matches against middle-third teams.

Eindhoven - 13th

  • Only 3 wins in 15 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home outside of the top 4.
  • 1-2 win v NEC the last time these 2 met.
  • 15 of 19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

NEC - 10th

  • A draw and 3 losses last 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away losses.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Wins away v 14th, 15th and 19th.

Conclusions

  • Eindhoven are solid and unbeaten at home outside of the top 4 and play an NEC with 2 consecutive away losses and wins only away v 14th and lower.
  • I slightly favour Eindhoven here. They did beat NEC the last time these 2 met this season.
  • Note the strong 2nd half scoring and conceding stats for Eindhoven if there is a 0-0 at halftime.

Den Bosch v Jong PSV - 1.57 Den Bosch

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Den Bosch home matches against bottom-six teams and in 14/20 Jong PSV away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 6/10 Jong PSV away matches against middle-third teams.

Den Bosch - 12th

  • 3 wins in 3 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 13 matches.
  • 4 draws in 5 matches at home.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • No defeat in 9 at home.
  • 90% of halftime scorelines at home are either 0-0 or 1-0.
  • 3 wins came v 17th and lower at home.
  • 2-2 v Jong PSV earlier this season.
  • 70% of goals scored and 83% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Jong PSV - 16th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Only away win v 19th.

Conclusions

  • Jong PSV are poor travellers. Only 1 away win was v 19th and saw them concede 2 goals as well!
  • Den Bosch are on a 2+ goal scoring pattern and score and concede heavily 2nd half so note that if barren first half.

Jong Ajax v TOP Oss - 1.18 Jong Ajax

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 11/14 Jong Ajax home matches and +2.5 goals in 9/10 FC Oss away matches against top-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 11/14 Jong Ajax home matches.

Jong Ajax - 2nd

  • Only 4 losses.
  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only loss at home v 4th.
  • Lost 2-1 to Oss earlier this season.

Oss - 18th

  • Only 4 wins, one did come v Jong Ajax.
  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not played 2nd-7th away but all losses when playing top 17 away.

Conclusions

  • Even though there is a gap in form for Oss v the top 7, they quite simply lose v the top 17 away.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

Almere v Roda - 1.67 Almere

  • Match outcome: Almere City have won 9/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while Roda JC have lost 5/9 away matches against middle-third teams. Almere City have won by two or more goals in 5/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Almere City - 9th

  • 3 losses and 2 wins last 5 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches at home.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 100% wins at home v 13th and lower.
  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.

Roda - 15th

  • No win in 7 matches.
  • 4 draws and a loss last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 1 away win came v 11th.

Conclusions

  • Both sides tend to score. Almere are fancied here based on that 100% win record at home v 13th and lower.....they play 15th today.

Jong Utrecht v Go Ahead Eagles - 1.83 Go Ahead Eagles

  • Match outcome: Jong Utrecht have lost 7/11 home matches against top-six teams and they have lost by two or more goals in 6/11 such matches. G.A. Eagles have drawn the first half in 6/8 away matches against top-half teams.

Jong Utrecht - 8th

  • 2 wins and a draw last 3 at home.
  • Unbeaten in 5.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No defeat in 9 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 3 at home.
  • Led at halftime in 6/9 at home.
  • 4-0 loss v Go Ahead Eagles earlier this season.
  • 7 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Go Ahead Eagles - 6th

  • Only 2 losses first 2 away matches of the season.
  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 7 0-0's in their last 8 matches at halftime.
  • Scored last 8 away.
  • Losses away v 1st and 13th.4 draws away v the top 10.
  • 77% of goals scored and 73% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Jong Utrecht look good at home, unbeaten in 9 at home. They lost emphatically v Go Ahead last head to head but that might change now. Go Ahead have had a lot of 0-0's at halftime but tend to see goals 2nd half. Note that. Go Ahead have only 2 losses away.
  • I like Jong Utrecht at home and I like Go Ahead away so tough to split these 2.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

17:30 - Antalyaspor v Ankaragacu - 1.52 Antalyaspor

  • 1st goal: Antalyaspor have conceded first in 7/13 home matches against bottom-six teams while Ankaragucu have scored first in 5/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 Ankaragucu away matches against bottom-six teams.

Antalyaspor - 16th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Opponents led at halftime in 5/7 at home.
  • Only home win v 8th.
  • 13 of 16 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Ankaragacu - 18th

  • 6 losses and a draw last 7 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No win in 9 and in 6 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 7 and last 6 away.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away (25%).
  • Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • I thought I would research given the short priced fav but they look dodgier than Arthur Daley.
  • Both sides rarely win. Ankaragacu are unbeaten v 13th and lower.
  • It will be worth following here to see if the market is accurate OR if the underdog can remain unbeaten v fellow strugglers.