Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Accurate research yesterday. Correct score with Chelsea (1-2), Ajax came from behind - any other home score. Did you 'do a Luton'? i.e. back Ajax to win at halftime after having conceded in the 43rd minute. Yes, they led 2-1 at halftime!! Betis scored a very late 90th minute winner. 1.39 shot v a red carded Las Palmas. Tell me you layed that late 0-0? Utrecht goal before halftime, Saints not. I did have that niggle as this was a relegation six pointer for the Saints. All in all a productive evening and I regret not doing a live chat! I won't do a live chat tonight but may appear on Twitter @drtclub I like to have an evening off because I live chat Saturdays and Sundays.
A good selection of matches today but caution with the Dutch Eerste Divisie. 2 matches remain and for me, there are a number of teams with nothing to lose and nothing to gain by any results from those matches.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Millwall v Fulham - 2.14 Fulham

  • 0-0 and 1-0 Fulham in the last head to heads.

Millwall (6th)

  • 3 matches remain and Millwall are clinging onto top 6 status but must continue their excellent run as they are queuing up behind them.
  • No defeat in 17 and in 13 at home.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 14 and last 6 at home.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home (38% of matches).
  • 3 defeats at home v 12th, 22nd and 23rd.
  • Score draws v top 2 at home.

Fulham (3rd)

  • Unbeaten in 21 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • Scored in their last 21 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 5 wins away v top 9 but 2 losses v 1st and 4th.
  • 12 goals scored away last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • Squeaky bum time. Automatic promotion is possible for Fulham if they finish 2nd.
  • Play offs are possible for Millwall if they remain 6.
  • 3 points necessary for both sides. BUT No defeat in 17 plays no defeat in 21. These 2 are in some seriously good recent form.
  • Millwall have scored in their last 14, Fulham in their last 21.
  • The recent trend with Fulham has been scoring 2nd half.
  • Other than that this is tough to call. Are Millwall destined for another score draw at home to a top 3 side.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

18:30 - Nantes v Rennes - 2.5 Nantes

  • 1-1 and 2-1 Rennes in the last 2 head to heads.
  • A local derby of sorts I think.

Nantes (9th)

  • Only 2 wins in 14 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 0-1 at home v top 4 this season.
  • Only 1 win at home v top 10.

Rennes (5th)

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches was a disappointing home loss to bottom side Metz.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 and last 12 away.
  • Only 1 loss away v top 10 was v 2nd.

Conclusions

  • An interesting exercise. Researching without knowing the odds because I start research early in the week.
  • So, strictly on form, a Nantes side with only 1 win at home v the top 10 should struggle v a top 5 side with only 1 loss away v the top 10.
  • Rennes though are coming off a suspiciously poor loss at home to bottom side Metz.
  • Given Nantes seem limited v the top 4 as far as scoring that 2nd goal, lay them if they score first.

20:00 - Dijon v Lyon - 1.45 Lyon

  • 4-2 Lyon and 3-3 in the last 2 head to heads.

Dijon (12th)

  • Only 2 losses in 11 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Win, Win, Win, Draw, Loss last 5 home matches.
  • Scored in their last 13 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home (25%).
  • Lost to top 4 at home, scoring in each.

Lyon (3rd)

  • 3 draws and 5 wins last 8 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in the last 5 matches.
  • Scored in their last 14 away.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away (17.6%).
  • Outside the top 2, only 1 away loss.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all away matches v 11th and lower.

Conclusions

  • At their best, Lyon should be scoring 2 goals at least today.
  • Watch out, ask Marseille! Dijon do have a goal in them and could score. But they concede too, as they have done in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Dijon continue to lose to top 4 so expectation is for that today. Lay Dijon if Dijon lead.
  • 75% v 82.4% goals before halftime suggests we lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. But with 4 clean sheets in 5 for Lyon, we may only be reliant on one team to score before halftime.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Mgladbach v Wolfsburg - 1.93 Mgladbach

  • The Wolf are unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads.

Mgladbach (8th)

  • Only 2 wins in 11. Thankfully they have done enough to ensure they survive another season in the Bundesliga.
  • Only 2 losses in 7 v top 3 sides so on closer inspection not so bad.
  • 2-2, 3-3, 2-1 at home too recently. So scoring.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home (27%).
  • Unbeaten at home v 9th and lower.
  • 14 of 19 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Wolfsburg (14th)

  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 4 matches.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Only 2 wins home and away v top 12.

Conclusions

  • 3 teams 14th, 15th and 16th are on identical points. One of them will finish bottom 3. The reason for Wolfsburg inclusion there? DRAWS!
  • Their recent draws have been 0-0. Mgladbach recently at home are scoring 2+ goals and that might undo the Wolf today.
  • We have form lines too. Mgladbach are unbeaten at home v 9th and lower. The Wolf have only 2 wins home and away v the top 12.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Leganes v Deportivo La Coruna - 2.3 Leganes

  • 1-0 Deportivo in the most recent head to heads.

Leganes (14th)

  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • Another wins guarantees Leganes top flight status.
  • 10 0-0's at halftime at home (63% of matches).
  • Unbeaten at home v 13th and lower.
  • 12 of 16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Deportivo (18th)

  • 2 3-2 wins and a 0-0 last 3 matches. Going for it in their pursuit of survival.
  • Still 4 points shy of 4th bottom.
  • 6 losses away before that last win.
  • Conceded in their last 12 away.
  • Only 2 away wins v 13th and 19th.
  • 3-0-1-2-3-2 goals scored away v 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Both sides are going for it with ultra recent form.
  • Likely we will see a 0-0 at halftime based on Leganes. Back 0-0 pre match if you want and hope their defence is solid.
  • Depor have threatened goals away v 13th and lower - 3-0-1-2-3-2 which might give them the vote with me but then Leganes are unbeaten at home v 13th and lower.
  • The joys of a relegation six pointer!

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - Cambuur v Helmond - 1.36 Cambuur

  • 3-0 Helmond last head to head.

Cambuur (8th)

  • Cannot get above 7th place this season. What is the motivation with 2 games left?
  • 4 consecutive wins, scoring 3 in 3 of them.
  • Draw, Win, Draw, Draw, Win, Win at home.
  • Conceded last 9 at home.
  • Scored last 11.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home (22%).
  • 2-2-3-3-2-1-3-2-1-2 goals scored at home v 10th and lower.
  • Conceded in all matches at home v 13th and lower.

Helmond (18th)

  • Can actually salvage the season but wins required.
  • 5 consecutive losses, conceding 3 goals in 4 of those matches. Oh dear, Cambuur licking their lips?
  • 2-3-1-3 recent goals totals before halftime.
  • 3 away wins v 5th, 6th and 13th.
  • 16 of 20 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Helmond can still stay up but will need to win at least one of their last 2 matches.
  • On current form, the problem is that they are conceding 3 goals and play a home side scoring 3 goals in 3 of their 4 consecutive wins.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on 78% chance of goal before halftime. Cambuur are highly likely to score and concede.

19:00 - Utrecht II  v Fortuna Sittard - 1.33 Fortuna

  • 4-1 and 3-1 Fortuna Sittard last 2 head to heads.

Jong Utrecht(20th)

  • Cannot be lifted from bottom place and relegation.
  • 3 wins last 5 cannot help either.
  • 2 consecutive home wins too.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home (39%).
  • Have lost home and away to all top 6 bar 1 match v 1st at home.
  • 24 of 33 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Fortuna Sittard (2nd)

  • Still have points to play for and to catch 1st. This is a must win.
  • Unbeaten in 12, scoring in those 12.

Conclusions

  • I end it here. It is a matter of context. Jong Utrecht are doomed, Mr. Mainwaring. Fortuna simply must win this match in order to at least pressurise a Jong Ajax playing away from home today.Jong Ajax have played a match more so this match win is critical for Fortuna. It could seal the title. Expect that away win and react if Jong Utrecht land the first blow.

19:00 - Volendam v Ajax II - 1.75 Ajax II

  • 7-0 Jong Ajax last competitive head to head.

Volendam (11th)

  • Mid table mediocrity with 2 matches remaining.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home (39%).
  • Beat 2nd and 5th at home but those the only 2 wins home and away v top 6.

Jong Ajax (1st)

  • Must react to what is an eminently winnable match for 2nd placed Fortuna.
  • 5 consecutive wins.4 consecutive away wins.
  • 3-2-4-3-1 goals before halftime in recent matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 9 away and scored last 18 away.
  • 2+ goals scored away in all bar 2 matches v 4th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Jong Ajax must win. A possibility of 2+ goals from them.
  • I would actually lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. 3-2-4-3-1 goals total in Ajax matches pre halftime away recently.
  • Enter this match expecting the team in need to oblige.

19:00 - RKC Waalwijk v Go Ahead Eagles - 2.1 RKC

  • 1-0 Go ahead and 0-0 last 2 head to heads.
  • This is a must win for both sides and as a relegation 6 pointer, form lines may be thrown out of the window.
  • This is a must win for RKC. If RKC do not win,they they cannot get to 4th bottom place (a place currently held by Go Ahead Eagles).
  • A draw will suffice for Go Ahead and limit them to Helmond Sport being able to replace them as 4th bottom.
  • A no play for me in this relegation six pointer.

19:00 - PSV II v Dordrecht - 1.5 Jong PSV

  • 2 consecutive 2-3 PSV wins in head to heads.

Jong PSV (5th)

  • A need to retain a top 5 place.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 8 at home with 3 consecutive wins.
  • Scored in their last 16 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 home losses outside of the top 2.
  • 27 first half goals scored.

Dordrecht (12th)

  • No draw in 26 and in 18 away.
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • 6 losses in 7 matches.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away (17%).
  • v top 9 away, 6 losses and 2 wins.
  • 13 of 16 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Motivation retains for Jong PSV.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the stats.
  • Jong PSV are expected to score at some point and should go unbeaten. Unbeaten in 8 at home now.
  • Lay any late draw based on Dordrecht.

19:00 - MVV v FC Oss - 1.53 MVV

  • 0-3 MVV and 1-0 Oss last 2 head to heads.
  • A dead rubber for me here. FC Oss will not be dragged into the relegation zone. MVV have little to benefit from winning their 2 remaining matches.
  • 9 wins and a draw for MVV v teams below them in the league at home. Only 3 away wins for Oss.
  • If MVV are wound up, they could match the expectation from the odds and win. A simple trading angle?

19:00 - Eindhoven v Almere City - 2.3 Eindhoven

  • 4-1 Eindhoven and 5-1 Almere last 2 head to heads.
  • FC Eindhoven cannot be dragged into the relegation zone and top 7 is best case for Almere.
  • Another potential dead rubber for me.
  • 3 wins in 4 for Eindhoven at home. 3 wins in 4 for Almere. Good recent form both.
  • No draw in 18 for Eindhoven. Lay the late draw?
  • Scored 2+ goals at home last 4 and conceded 2+ goals at home last 5 for Eindhoven.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home v only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Both teams could score today. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the stats.
  • Do remember that this is a dead rubber.

19:00 - Den Bosch v Emmen - 2.05 Emmen

  • This for me is another dead rubber. Neither side greatly lose out or gain if losing or winning their remaining 2 matches.
  • Both sides are on a recent run of losses.
  • Another no play. We will see this a lot as the season ends. ' what's my motivation?' is a good question to ask if researching at this stage of the season.

19:00 - De Graafschap v Telstar - 1.6 De Graaf

  • 2-1 De Graaf and 3-2 Telstar in the last 2 head to heads.

De Graaf (4th)

  • Cannot fall out of the top 6, I think the top 5 is play-off places.
  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • 2-4-4-4 goals scored in recent matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home (17%).
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Loss, Draw at home v top 7 2-2-1-2-2 goals scored though!

Telstar (6th)

  • Only 3 losses in 20 matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away (22%).
  • Draw, Draw, Loss, Loss away v top 4.

Conclusions

  • Both teams will be keen to retain a top 6 spot so plenty to play for.
  • I expect De Graafschap to score so that is a ready angle.
  • Both sides are poor v fellow top 6 teams so it is hard to side with any one team.

19:00 - NEC v AZ II - 1.14 NEC

  • 2-7 last time these 2 met.

NEC (3rd)

  • 2 matches remain and 6 points shy of top spot. I do not think NEC can win the title as 2nd placed have played a match fewer.
  • No defeat in 18 at home, scoring in all 18.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • All wins bar a draw at home v 8th and lower.
  • Led at halftime in 13/18 matches.

Jong AZ (13th)

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 2 consecutive heavy away defeats.
  • No away draw.
  • Beat 1st, 5th and 7th away but all other defeats v top 12 away.

Conclusions

  • NEC should be eyeing the win here. The market has them scoring 3/4 goals minimum too. Note Jong AZ scored 2 in defeat last time -let's hope Jong AZ take a 0-2 lead for a nice trade in.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market here based on an expectation for goals.

IRISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Dundalk v Derry - 1.44 Dundalk

  • 2 consecutive 4-0 Dundalk wins in head to heads.

Dundalk (1st)

  • Unbeaten.
  • 6 consecutive wins.
  • Only conceded in one match.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • 1-0 wins v the current top 4 at home.

Derry (3rd)

  • 6 consecutive wins.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 3 away losses v 4th, 5th and 8th.

Conclusions

  • A team keeping clean sheets v a team scoring in every match. Something will give tonight.
  • If Derry do score and score first, I would lay them. Losses away v 4th and 5th suggests the top 3 might be a stretch.
  • I do note Dundalk's 1-0 wins v 2 of the top 4 at home. This could be tight but then Dundalk have 2 consecutive 4-0 wins v Derry.

19:45 - Waterford v Bray - 1.5 Waterford

  • 0-0 last head to head.

Waterford (4th)

  • No draw this season.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • All losses came away v top 6.

Bray (10th)

  • Did win their last match with the help of a red carded Shamrock.
  • That is the only win.
  • 5-6-5-2-1 goals conceded away in defeats.

Conclusions

  • Waterford should continue winning ways against bottom side today whose only win was care of their opponent's red card.

20:00 - Bohemians v Cork City - 1.65 Cork

  • 0-0 and 3-0 Cork last 2 head to heads.

Bohemians (7th)

  • Only 3 wins this season, 2 were v Shamrock Rovers.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • All defeats v top 4 but met only one of the top 4 at home.

Cork City (2nd)

  • 4 clean sheet wins in 5 matches. Last 2 were 1-0.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only losses came away v top 4.

Conclusions

  • At their best, Cork could eye 3/4 goals today and should get the win. I would have expected the market to be shorter in expectation of a 3 goal haul, but that is the amount they are scoring away v teams around Boh's position in the league.

20:00 - Shamrock Rovers v Limerick - 1.4 Shamrock

  • 3 consecutive Shamrock Rovers wins in head to heads.

Shamrock (5th)

  • 5 consecutive defeats.
  • v 8th and lower at home, 1-0 and 6-0 wins.

Limerick (9th)

  • Failed to score in 7 of their last 10 matches.
  • Scored only 1 goal in 7 matches v top 6.

Conclusions

  • Shamrock should not lose today. It could be a tight 1-0. Limerick are having trouble even scoring v the current top 6.