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The matches which immediately appeal to me are the Augsburg v Dortmund match (Augsburg were put in their place by Freiburg last match but this is a pre-Champions League match for Dortmund); Cagliari v Inter (Inter have Europa League football this week, and have started scoring regularly - reliable again?); Cork City and St Patricks look reliable in Ireland - so react if we see their opponents competitive.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Leeds United v West Brom - 2.24 Leeds

Leeds United (3rd)

  • 1 loss in 4 was a 1-0 mid week v QPR.
  • 7 wins in 9 matches at home.
  • 2 consecutive 2-1 home wins.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No draw in 9 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • Did beat 1st and 2nd away but at home, 1-3 loss v 1st and 0-0 v 5th.
  • 4-1 loss to West Brom earlier this season.
  • 8 goals scored last 15 minutes of home matches.

West Brom (4th)

  • Same recent form as Leeds. Draw, Win, Win, Loss.
  • 8 wins in 9 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No draw in 11 away.
  • Scored in their last 9 away matches.
  • Beat 1st and 2nd away.

Conclusions

  • These 2 look well-matched. 7/9 wins at home for Leeds plays 8/9 wins away for West Brom.
  • Both sides are avoiding draws. Something to work with?
  • Slight hint towards West Brom given their earlier season win v Leeds, as well as wins v 1st and 2nd away.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:45 - Bordeaux v Montpellier - 2.5 Bordeaux

  • 1-3 Bordeaux and 2-0 Montpellier last 2 head to heads.

Bordeaux (13th)

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches came at home.
  • Failed to score in 5 of the last 6 matches.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (46%).
  • Only 2 losses at home v 8th and 10th.
  • Not played 5th-7th at home but 2-2 v 1st, 1-0, 2nd, and 3-2 3rd at home.
  • 9 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Montpellier (7th)

  • Only 1 win in 11 matches.
  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • 0-1-0-1-0-1 goals scored away recently.
  • No win in 6 away.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away (54%).
  • Lost away v 12th and 14th.
  • Only 1 win away v top 14.
  • 64% of goals scored and 67% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams in poor recent form.
  • I would back 0-0 pre-match here. Bordeaux have failed to score in 5/6 matches and Montpellier have scored 0-1-0-1-0-1 recently.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Augsburg v Dortmund - 1.66 Dortmund

Augsburg (15th)

  • 6 losses in 7 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 14 matches came at home.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side home or away.
  • 3+ goals conceded v the top 2 this season.

Dortmund (1st)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away draws.
  • Only 1 win in 4 away.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.
  • Did have 0-0's away v the bottom 2.
  • 3/3 clean sheets v bottom 3.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Dortmund worst case will draw, best case should win. They meet 4th bottom and did keep 3/3 clean sheets v bottom 3.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Watch out for an Augsburg goal. They have scored in their last 7 at home but never beaten a top 10 side and conceded 3+ goals v the top 2 already this season.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:30 - Cagliari v Inter Milan - 1.8 Inter

Cagliari (14th)

  • Only 2 wins in 15 matches came at home.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • 6 1-0 leads at halftime at home.
  • 83% of scorelines at halftime at home are 0-0 or 1-0.
  • Not beaten a top 11 side at home but 5 draws.
  • 0-1 at home v 2nd, 1-1 v 4th.
  • 1-0-0-0-1 scored v top 5 this season.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Inter Milan (3rd)

  • Have had trouble scoring goals but suddenly have scored 5 goals in 2 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away (38%).
  • v 13th and lower this season away, 4 wins and a draw. 0-1-0-0-1 goals conceded away.
  • 10 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Cagliari's recent form should preclude the win. They have failed to score in 3/5 matches v the top 5 this season.
  • Inter Milan have found their scoring boots after a very troubling period. Can we trust them now with 5 goals in 2 matches? If so, we must favour the away side to at least draw, but certainly not lose today.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - De Graafschap v ADO Den Haag - 2.22 De Graafschap

De Graafschap (17th)

  • 2 wins in 3 at home.
  • 2 losses in 3 matches overall.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 4 of 5 wins at home came v 10th and lower.

ADO Den Haag (12th)

  • Inconsistent form. e.g. recent matches have seen this pattern - DWDLDWLWL where D=Draw, W=Win and L=Loss. Which ADO turns up today?
  • 3-1-3-1-2 goals scored away recently. Inconsistent again.
  • Scored in their last 8 and last 5 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All draws v the bottom 2. lost home and away v 16th. The only losses v 9th and lower came v one side, Emmen, home and away.
  • Scored and conceded in all aways v 11th and lower.

Conclusions

  • For me, the fact only Emmen has beaten ADO, of all the teams 9th and lower home and away, has me thinking they may get a positive result today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • The problem with ADO is that inconsistency I mentioned. Which ADO turns up today?
  • De Graaf tend to win v 10th and lower too.
  • All in all, a match muddied by inconsistency of the away side.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Rayo Vallecano v Girona - 2.54 Rayo Vallecano

  • I try not to research these matches but will do so. 2.54 puts me off.

Rayo Vallecano (19th)

  • 4 consecutive losses.
  • 2 consecutive home defeats.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • All defeats bar 1 at home came v top 6.
  • Scored and conceded in 10/11 at home v 4th and lower.
  • v 14th and lower at home, 2-2, 4-2, 2-2.
  • Lost 2-1 to Girona earlier this season.

Girona (15th)

  • Only 1 win in 12 matches came v Real Madrid last away match.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away matches.
  • 0-1 win v 18th away, and 1-1 away v 20th.
  • 12 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Not the best sides in the world. Girona away v 18th and 20th are unbeaten, win and draw, albeit scoring only 1 goal.
  • Rayo v 14th and lower at home, have a 2-2, 4-2 and 2-2 so the form is incongruous. Hence the 2.54 odds.

IRISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Cork City v Derry City - 1.57 Cork City

  • 2 consecutive losses for Cork City ended with a good 1-2 win away from home to Sligo last match. Cork City are likely to be a top 2 side this season so that opening 2 match losing run was not expected.
  • Derry's 2 wins this season saw them score 3 goals in each but came at home.
  • They lost away to Shamrock Rovers.
  • No real patterns but I do like to follow Cork City in the Premier League.
  • Last season Cork only lost 1 home match v first place. They beat Derry 4-2 and 5-0 at home last season.
  • Derry could not beat the top 5 away last season.

19:45 - UCD AFC v St Patricks - 1.55 St Patricks

  • 3/3 losses for UDC this season to date.
  • Newly promoted are UCD.
  • 2 1-0 wins and a 0-0 for St Pats this season. A tactic? 1-0 win over Cork City catches the eye. That took place at home.
  • We are not sure how UCD will cope in this better league but their season start suggests struggles against a St Pats already looking tough to score against.

19:45 - Waterford v Bohemians - 2.37 Waterford

  • I am not going to look at the 2.37 the favourite match, particularly with only 3 matches played.

20:00 - Shamrock Rovers v Dundalk - 2.3 Dundalk

  • Champions Last season Dundalk are obviously worth following this season, particularly as they have conceded first in their last 2 matches and gone on to record a 1-1 and a 2-1 win.
  • The market suggests a toughie for them this match. 1-1, 1-1, 2-1 this season so far.
  • Dundalk only lost 3 matches last season, 2 came away v the top 4 sides.
  • 0-0 and 2-5 win away v Shamrock last season.
  • Great start from Shamrock, with 2-0 and 1-2 wins v Derry and Waterford and a loss v Bohs 1-0.
  • A good set of home results last season for Shamrock. Only 1 loss in 10 v the top 5 at home was that loss to Dundalk.
  • Let's hope Dundalk are in a giving mood again - conceding first and then equalising.

20:00 - Finn Harps v Sligo Rovers - 2.5 Finn Harps

  • Leave this to the in-play stats. 2.5 the favourite and only 3 matches played.