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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, May 19, 2017

I have researched the Finnish football just to get to know the teams. Ireland also has a full program of matches. The Elfsborg match was my main winner yesterday. It went just as the research suggested. AFC's opener was a penalty. Flag that up! Elfsborg equalised 2nd half and won with a late goal.
Do follow these short priced favourites in the Scandinavian leagues. They are doing the business if struggling. Hacken v Halmstad was another on the 17th May. I like Irish Football as it tends to be predictable and if up and about tonight I will be tweeting @drtclub. No promises. Might have to meet the in-laws this evening (deep joy - I am doing cartwheels as I write).
The tennis was good yesterday, helped by Dominic Thiem's win from a set behind. Did you know Querrey traded as low as 1.2 odds at one point, and still lost. The tennis gets trickier now as we move deeper into the tournament in Rome and matches get tighter. I do though sniff a trade if Djokovic wins the first set v a Del Potro who is demolishing players left right and centre! I hope to be tweeting if any trades turn up and will list my watchlist of matches at the DRT Facebook page.

16:00 - PS Kemi v HJK Helsinki - 1.28 HJK

  • 2-0 wins for HJK in 2016 head to heads augurs well here.
  • This is 11th v 1st in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.
  • PS Kemi have only played 5 matches and HJK 7 matches. PS Kemi could go 4th with wins in their 2 games in hand.
  • PS losses this season came v the current 3rd at home (1-4), 5th away (3-0) and 7th away (3-1).
  • They are struggling bar a win (3-1) v current 9th and 0-0 v 10th at home.
  • 4 consecutive defeats for PS and likely a 4th after today.
  • HJK had a run of scoring and conceding in 4 matches. That ended last match. Still, away, it's 1-1, 1-5 win and 2-1 loss.
  • HJK's only loss came away to current 2nd. Their 1-5 win? Away to current bottom. PS are 2nd bottom.

Conclusions

  • I fear for PS today. HJK may match the current 3/4 goals conceded by PS in 3 consecutive defeats. Their 1-5 win away to bottom suggests this.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on expectation for goals.

16:30 - JJK v VPS - 1.91 VPS

  • These 2 have not met since 2013 which tells me JJK might be newly promoted as JJK are bottom and VPS are 2nd in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.
  • No win yet for JJK who scored at home in 1-5 and 1-2 defeats.
  • They have been tight away from home but poor defensively at home.
  • VPS though are 5 matches unbeaten, with 3 wins and 2 score draws.4-2-1-2-1 scored.
  • VPS have scored and conceded in 5 matches this season.
  • VPS are yet to have a 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 6 of JJK's 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • JJK are a bit of an unknown but have lost heavily in 2 at home. VPS away beat 7th and 8th and that may be good enough for them today.
  • JJK may score today. I would lay JJK if JJK scored first.

16:30 - Lahti v KuPS - 2.44 Lahti

  • 0-0 and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads in the league.
  • This is 6th v 3rd in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.
  • 6 matches in so really not a match to get carried away with. The reason I am researching so early is to benefit us further down the line - when following teams each match you'll get a feel for them, for any patterns, hard luck stories etc.
  • Only 1 team has scored 2 goals in a Lahti match this season.
  • 1-1-2-1-1-0 scored by Lahti this season.
  • The only lost the match they did not score in.
  • Lahti have scored 5 of their 6 goals 2nd half.
  • 2 consecutive wins for KuPS saw both teams score. KuPS have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 2-2-4-1 in the matches where both teams scored.

Conclusions

  • It really is early in the season but I would lay Lahti if Lahti scored first knowing they rarely get that 2nd goal and that KuPS tend to score 2 when conceding! A simple angle.

16:30 - Ilves v FC Inter - 2.22 Ilves

  • 0-0 and 0-1 Ilves in the last 2 head to head.
  • This is 4th v 8th after 6 matches in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.
  • No discernible pattern yet from Ilves who won v 5th, drew v 6th and lost v 7th at home.
  • Inter's 2 defeats this season came v current top 3. But remember that is the top 3 best performers after 6 matches!
  • Nothing yet to get me excited. As I say, I am researching these leagues early in order to get to know the teams as we move into the summer.

16:30 - HIFK v IFK Mariehamn - 2.62 IFK

  • 6 matches into a Finnish Veikkausliiga match and a 2.62 favourite. I get the hint. Leaving this one alone.

18:00 - SJK v RoPS - 1.51 SJK

  • 1-1 in the last head to head.
  • This is 9th v 7th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.
  • SJK have only 1 win at home, a 1-0 v 12th in the league.
  • They scored and conceded in 2 draws and a 1-2 loss in the other 3 home matches.
  • 2 consecutive 1-0's now for SJK, 1-0 and 0-1 sees an end to the scoring and conceding habit.
  • ROPS have no draw this season and 3 wins in their last 4 matches.

Conclusions

  • I just had to double check the odds again. RoPS, let's remember, have 3 wins in their last 4 matches and have played a match less than SJK yet are higher in the league than SJk whose only win at home was v bottom of the league.
  • I would not be an SJK backer at 1.55 and look to lay them if they scored first. The market may know something I do not! But I cannot ignore a team with 3 wins in 4 matches. Maybe it's because RoPS lost away to sides at either side of SJK in the league?

18:00 - Galatasary v Osmanlispor - 1.4 Galatasary

  • At least one team has scored 2 goals + in the last 5 head to heads.
  • The last 2 head to heads were 3-2 Osman and 2-2. Let's hope for more of the same today.
  • This is 4th v 13th in the Turkish Super Lig.
  • 3 matches remain this season. Osmanlispor are safe from relegation. Galatasary need to fend off all comers to their 4th spot. They also have a chance of 3rd spot but cannot reach top 2.
  • Only 4 draws for Galatasary all season is a ready angle for us.
  • 4 defeats for Gala in their last 6 at home. they need to up their game.
  • Galatasary have not had a draw in 15 home matches.
  • If we put those home defeats into perspective, Galatasary have 8 wins and a single loss at home v teams 8th and lower. Osmanlispor are 13th.
  • No 0-0 this season for Galatasary.
  • Galatasary have scored 12 goals in the last 15 minutes of home matches.
  • Osmanlispor have only 3 wins in 15 matches.
  • Osmanlispor have failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • Osmanlispor are yet to beat the top 4 home or away but have had 3 score draws.

Conclusions

  • Despite relatively poor recent form, Galatasary have won all bar 1 match v 8th and lower at home and that may be good enough to ensure a win today.
  • Lay any late 0-0 and lay any late draw by association. Galatasary tend not to do draws.
  • We should expect a home win. It was 2-2 the last time they met Osmanlispor so watch out for potential lead from Osmanlispor and lay it. Ditto perhaps a 2-0 Galatasary lead?

19:45 - Granada v Espanyol - 1.99 Espanyol

  • 3-1 Espanyol in the last head to head.
  • This is 20th v 10th in Spanish Primera Liga.
  • Granada are relegated.
  • Little to play for bar a last hurrah for Granada in front of home support.
  • They come into this with 11 defeats in 12 matches, failing to score in 4 of their last 6 matches and failing to score in their last 3 at home.
  • Espanyol have only tended to lose away to top 6 teams.Both teams scored in 1-2, 1-1, 1-2 v 17th and lower away.
  • This is a dead rubber. Nothing for either side to play for.
  • Espanyol are the better side. Will Granada get that goal for home supporters? On form Espanyol could score 2+ goals so Granada layable if leading.

19:45 - Cork City v Drogheda - 1.18 Cork City

  • This is the Irish Premier Division which is 13 matches old so we have some form lines (I hope).
  • 1-4 to Cork the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 1st v 7th in the Irish Premier Division.
  • Cork have all wins bar a single draw this season.
  • All wins at home saw them scoring 2 goals at least. 3 home wins were 2-1 so that 2nd goal was required.
  • Cork have naturally scored in every match.
  • 100% over 2.5 goals for Cork at home.
  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches for Drogs will see them lucky to come out of this unscathed.
  • 5 defeats and 2 wins away for the Drogs. No draw yet.
  • Drogs have lost all away matches v current top 8 sides.

Conclusions

  • Cork should do what 1.18 shots do. Score 3/4 goals at least today. 2 bare minimum I would say and record another home win.
  • Drogs have lost away to all top 8.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market although there are no halftime stats available.

19:45 - Limerick v Dundalk - 1.92 Dundalk

  • 5 consecutive Dundalk wins in head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 3rd in the Irish Premier Division, only 13 matches old.
  • No draw for Dundalk this season plays a Limerick side with 4 1-1 draws in their last 5 matches.
  • Limerick's 2 home wins came v teams below them in the league this season.
  • They have failed to score that 2nd goal in a match v teams above them in the league.
  • 4 defeats in 5 away matches for Dundalk 3-1 and 2 2-1 defeats away.
  • Dundalk have scored in all 13 matches so far this season.
  • Losses away for Dundalk came v 1st, 4th, 5th and 1th.

Conclusions

  • I think this match may benefit from a 2-1/1-2 trade. Here we back 2-1/1-2 pre match and hope to trade out at 1-1 on both scorelines. Why? Limerick's 1-1's are an obvious pull.
  • Dundalk's 2-1 losing pattern away is another pattern.
  • In head to heads, Dundalk tend to get the better of Limerick and I admit, their wins have come in a cluster (largely at home) v 5th to 10th so they should cope with 6th.

19:45 - Bray v Bohemians - 1.59 Bray

  • 2-1 Bray, 3-2 Bohemians in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 10th in the Irish premier division.
  • 2nd in the league are Bray but a long way shy of Cork City.
  • Indeed their only loss in 7 matches was v Cork City.
  • Bray have failed to score only once.
  • They have 4 wins, a draw and a loss at home.
  • Bohemians are bottom 3 at the moment,a part of the league in which Bray has scored 1, 5 and 3 goals in 3 wins.
  • Bohemians beat Bray 3-2 earlier in the season but that is not in keeping with their 6 defeats and solitary win v top 5 teams.
  • Away, Bohs have conceded 2 goals in defeats to 3rd, 4th and 5th.
  • Bohs have now failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches.

Conclusions

  • The 3-2 win earlier in the season looks to be an anomaly. Bohemians are really struggling now and that must give favouritism to current 2nd in the league.
  • We might see 2+ goals from Bray if they can replicate the kind of performance they have had v bottom 3 sides at home.
  • I would expect a Bray win here today and react to any Bohs lead by opposing it.

19:45 - Galway Utd v Finn Harps - 1.96 Galway United

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 11th v 12th in the Irish Premier Division after 13 matches.
  • If researching these leagues, you can access the 'Challenge Table' via www.fcstats.com.
  • Somebody call a doctor. Galway have a case of draw-itis. 8 draws in their last 11 matches.
  • 4 draws and a win in their last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet for Galway.
  • All draws bar 1 for Galway were score draws.
  • All 1-1 draws for Galway home and away v teams 8th and lower.
  • 6 defeats in their last 7 for Finn Harps sees them failing to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Could we see an end to the 1-1's if one team has trouble scoring?
  • 2 wins though for Finn Harps have been 2-1 home v 9th and away v 8th.
  • 5 of Finn Harp's defeats have come v top 3 so some context to the recent poor record.

Conclusions

  • Can the bottom 2 be trusted? Hmmm. I will be backing 2-1/1-2 here pre-match and hope that 1-1 arrives.
  • I think this lowering of the sights for Finn Harps could see them score, and with Galway we know they cannot keep a clean sheet with all of their score draws.
  • Finn Harps have had 2-1 wins recently v bottom sides and that helps the cause. We know all about Galway and their 1-1's!
  • As I say the ideal is a 1-1 scoreline as that will shorten the odds of 2-1 and 1-2.

19:45 - Derry v Shamrock Rovers - 2.52 Derry

  • The odds suggest this match is best left alone. What does the form say?
  • 0-1 Derry the last time these 2 teams met.
  • This is 4th v 5th in the Irish Premier Division.
  • A touch of the Galways about Derry with their 5 draws in 6 matches.
  • Shamrock have only had the one draw all season so we may see the draw sequence end today.
  • Derry defeats at home came v 2nd and bottom!
  • Derry are unbeaten home and away v 3rd to 11th inclusive.
  • Shamrock have scored and conceded in 10 matches this season. Their overwhelming pattern as well as avoiding the draw.
  • Shamrock only failed to score once this season and that was in defeat to today's opponents.
  • Shamrock scored and conceded in defeats away v 2nd, 3rd, 7th and 8th.
  • All bar one of Shamrock's wins this season came v teams 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • The market cannot split these 2 teams but there is an argument that Derry should come out of this match unbeaten. Why? Well Derry are unbeaten home and away v 3rd to 11th inclusive. Shamrock wins have come v teams 9th and lower and Shamrock have 4 away defeats.
  • Both teams could score so I would look to lay Shamrock if Shamrock scored first.

19:45 - St Patricks v Sligo Rovers - 1.97 St Pats

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 teams met.
  • This is 8th v 9th in the Irish Premier Division.
  • Only 2 defeats in 8 matches for St Pats came at home v 1st and 6th.
  • No draw at home for St Pats and rather inconsistent home form which makes me loathe to trade this match.
  • We have defeats v 1st and 2nd - ok, that's to be expected, but defeat v bottom as well? Then we have home wins v 5th and 7th and a loss at home 6th?
  • 3 score draws and a win for St Pats in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets for St Pats this season.
  • Sligo are yet to win away which is the reason, I guess, that St Patricks are favourites despite bitty home form.
  • Only 2 clean sheets for Sligo and talk about more inconsistency. 3-0 home win followed by a 4-0 away defeat.

Conclusions

  • Goodness me, St Pats are very inconsistent and for the trader that reads as, well, UNreadable.
  • Sligo have yet to win away.
  • A match for me to leave behind. I trade readable teams and patterns.