Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook and normally take Friday (and Monday) off from Telegram....but you never know.


English Premier League

20:00 - Fulham v Leeds - 2.45 Fulham

  • I do hope you understand why I won't research this match. a) 2 newly promoted sides meeting each other will likely be targeting 3 points. b) 2.45 the favourite suggests a puzzle. In-play stats, or not at all. Remember you don't have to trade matches in which you cannot generate a trading angle.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/12 Leeds away matches and +3.5 goals in 6/11 Leeds away matches. Fulham have conceded first in 5/6 home matches against middle-third teams.

Scottish Championship

19:45 - Alloa v Dundee - 1.53 Dundee

  • 10th (bottom) v 4th so points required for both teams for different reasons. It is so tight at the bottom that a win will see Alloa within 1 point of 3 other teams.
  • A win could see Dundee challenge for 2nd spot.
  • Alloa have not beaten the top 4 this season (Dundee are 4th). Alloa conceded 3 goals on both occasions they met Dundee this season.
  • Dundee away do draw a lot v 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th all score draws.
  • Draw best case for Alloa today?

Spanish La Liga Primera

20:00 - Real Betis v Levante - 1.83 Real Betis

Real Betis - 6th

  • 4 consecutive wins ended with a loss v Sevilla.
  • 4 wins in 5 at home.
  • Scored in their last 8 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 4-3 loss last head to head.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 10.

Levante - 9th

  • Only 2 losses in 11 were 1-0 only.
  • 2-2-2-0 goals scored away recently. Fell foul of a solid (on the day) Sociedad.
  • Have beaten 1st and 3rd away and 13th but none of the others they have played away. Headscratching form away. 1-0 away losses v 2nd, 4th, 5th, and a 2-1 loss v 7th.

Conclusions

  • A match of patchy form. Solid winning form at home for a Betis with only 1 win v the top 10. Levante have been scoring 2 for fun away recently and beat 1st and 3rd but 1-0 losses v top 5 and playing 6th today. In-play stats please. A 'Katie Price novel' match. i.e. unreadable.
  • Match outcome: Real Betis have won 6/8 home matches against middle-third teams while Levante have lost 13/18 away matches against top-six teams. Levante have drawn the first half in 13/18 away matches.

German Bundesliga

19:30 - Arminia Bielefeld v Leipzig - 1.35 Leipzig

Armenia Bielefeld - 15th

  • We'll take that! An unexpected 3 points v Bayer Leverkusen last. Bit of a stretch to expect another shock, although Leipzig were under par in their 1-1 v Frankfurt latest.
  • Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss at home recently.
  • Failed to score last 3 away.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away, only 1 at fulltime.
  • All defeats v the top 6 at home..
  • 2-1 loss last head to head

Leipzig - 2nd

  • 6 wins and a draw last 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away 0-3 wins.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all matches v the bottom 4.
  • 8/11 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Leipzig did fail to score that 2nd goal last match but hopefully will be over their post Champions League malaise and are expected to score 2/3 goals today and put that Arminia mini revival to bed.
  • Do note the high % of 0-0 at halftime at home for Arminia but not at fulltime.
  • Match outcome: A Bielefeld have lost 8/12 home matches while RB Leipzig have won 11/12 away matches against bottom-six teams. RB Leipzig have had W/W double results in 8/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Italian Serie A

19:45 - Parma v Genoa - 2.37

  • Lord knows what we will get from Parma who managed to keep a 2-0 lead v Roma last match and broke a profitable 3 match pattern for us.
  • Watching brief today given that lurch towards a sudden clean sheet!! There is no doubting this Parma goalscoring!
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 12/20 Parma home matches and in 12/20 Genoa away matches. Genoa have drawn 8/13 away matches against bottom-six teams.

French Ligue 1

20:00 - St. Etienne v Monaco - 1.85 Monaco

St Etienne - 16th

  • Only 1 win in 4 came last match.
  • Draw, Win, Draw, Loss at home recently.
  • Scored last 8 and last 4 at home.
  • 2-2 last head to head.
  • Not beaten top 6 at home.

Monaco - 4th

  • Only 1 loss in 14 - no draw in 14 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower, scored 2+ goals in 7/8 matches.

Conclusions

  • Monaco could threaten 2+ goals if they get over a recent run of failing to score in 2. Solid v 16th and lower. St Etienne are yet to beat the top 6 at home.
  • Match outcome: Saint-Etienne have lost 9/11 home matches against top-six teams while Monaco have won 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. Saint-Etienne have conceded first in 8/10 home matches against top-six teams.

Dutch Eredivisie

19:00 - Heerenveen v Twente - 2.60 Heerenveen

  • Leave this to the in-play stats. 2.6 the favourite.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Heerenveen home matches and in 6/8 Twente away matches against middle-third teams. Twente have drawn the first half in 7/9 away matches against middle-third teams.

Portuguese Primeira Liga

20:30 - Gil Vicente v Nacional - 2.05 Gil Vicente

  • Only 6 wins plays only 5 wins. This may not be a match to dwell upon for too long.
  • 5 consecutive defeats for nacional saw both teams score.
  • Gil Vicente have 3 wins in their last 7 matches.
  • 13th v 14th in the league.
  • 2-1 win for Nacional last head to head.
  • Notably, Gil Vicente have only 1 loss at home v 7th and lower.
  • Nacional's 2 away wins came v 15th and 18th.
  • Angles? Not for me. 2 sides winning infrequently.