Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Did you delay with Barcelona? First goal 30th minute. Did you back 1-0 and 2-0 in the halftime score market as I advised? If so, then form an orderly queue. 2-0 at halftime.
Holland and Germany return after a break, and that may muddy the form waters. A compelling Hoff v Bayern. Plenty of readable matches today.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Norwich v Birmingham - 1.92 Norwich

  • 0-2 and 2-2 Norwich's favour.

Norwich (3rd)

  • Only 2 defeats since 2nd September 2018. Let's be having you!
  • 3 score draws in 4 matches and no win in 4.
  • 4-3-3-3-3 goals scored at home recently. Delia delighted but not so much with the 3-4 defeat v Derby.
  • Norwich have scored and conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • Norwich defeats tend to come v the top 6.
  • Only 1 defeat home and away v top 7.
  • A massive 13 goals scored last 15 minutes of home matches.

Birmingham (8th)

  • No win in 3.
  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 away matches.
  • Only 1 away win v top 14 came v 1st.
  • Only 1 win home and away v top 14.
  • 7 times Birmingham scored 2 goals at least in those matches, but only won 1 match.

Conclusions

  • The fact that Birmingham can score 2 goals 7 times v top 14 and win only once should have you poised to lay the Brum if they lead 0-1 or even 0-2. Norwich have been scoring 3 goals with regularity and only tend to lose to the top 6 so me and Delia will be with Norwich today. Note the huge goalscoring for Norwich last 15 minutes of home matches. If a low scorer to the 75th minute, think possible Norwich goals.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:45 - Lille v Amiens - 1.55 Lille

  • 2 Amiens wins to nil ended with a 2-3 Lille win last 3 head to heads.

Lille (2nd)

  • Only 5 defeats all season, 4 came away from home. Lost their last home match v Toulouse and that was a coupon buster.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v Toulouse. 2/2 clean sheet wins v 16th and lower. scoring 2/3 goals away v 16th - with home advantage can Lille replicate that v 17th?
  • 6 of 8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Amiens (17th)

  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches.
  • Win, and 2 draws then PSG loss. Possible signs of recovery if we ignore this PSG match.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 4/4 defeats v top 3. 2-3 loss v Lille earlier this season was an exciting match.
  • Failed to score in 4/5 matches away v top 8.

Conclusions

  • Lille did lose their last home match, a big surprise v 14th but if returning to form, should win today v an Amiens having trouble even scoring away v the top 8. The market looks right here. Lille are scoring and conceding, and did so in the 2-3 win v Amiens but should survive any scare today.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

Hoffenheim v Bayern Munich - 1.62 Bayern

  • What a great match to herald the return of the German Bundesliga post winter break. No traditional research because of this Winter Break.
  • The mighty Hoff have won the last 2 home head to heads but as you will read, Bayern are looking solid away from home this season.
  • A touch of the old Valencia's for the mighty Hoff with 6 consecutive draws back end of 2018. 5 of those were score draws.
  • Hoff unbeaten in 5 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home is a surprise for the mighty Hoff.
  • Hoff have no win v top 8 home or away. 1-1, 0-0, 1-2, 1-2 v top 6 suggests both teams may score today and on seasonal form, the mighty Hoff not win. BUT......remember those head to heads.
  • 12 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half for Hoff.
  • 5 consecutive wins for Bayern ended 2018.5 wins in 6 away. Only Dortmund beat them recently.
  • 4 consecutive Bayern clean sheets back end of last season.
  • 2+ goals scored in the last 6 away for Bayern.
  • 6 0-1 wins for Bayern at halftime away, that's 2/3rd of matches.
  • Losses away v 1st and 8th only.
  • Niggles? Coming off the back of a break. Head to head form sees the Hoff being potentially troublesome. Season long form sees both teams maybe score with the Hoff not winning. If Bayern score 2 goals again, then Hoff are in trouble. Note too Bayern 0-1 lead at halftime. Hoff tend to score 2nd half.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - Vitesse v Excelsior - 1.29 Vitesse

  • Another league returning after a Winter Break.
  • Well, Excelsior have won 3 of the last 4 head to heads but the market sees the break favouring Vitesse.
  • Only 4 wins all season for Excelsior suggests they are more likely to lose or draw if this pattern continues.
  • 6 defeats, a win and a 3-3 at the back end of 2018.
  • 4 wins and a draw in 5 at home for Vitesse. Solid stuff.
  • They have only kept 3 clean sheets all season which is a worry v a team with Excelsior's record in head to heads.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime both sides suggests we lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Vitesse have scored and conceded v 8th and lower at home, and play 14th today.
  • 6-7-3-3-0-3-2 goals conceded by Excelsior v 7th and higher and they play 5th today, a side they beat 2-0 earlier in the season.
  • This match can go one of 2 ways. The value seeker will see the head to heads, and Vitesse scoring and conceding, as a weak sign and an opportunity to lay Vitesse if they lead.
  • The season-form watcher sees an Excelsior with only 4 wins all season, conceding 3+ goals on average v the top 7, and likely to lose even if scoring. The in-play stats will reveal, early I hope, which direction we should move towards.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Getafe v Deportivo Alaves - 1.89 Getafe

  • Getafe, Alaves, Draw the last 3 league head to heads sheds no light.
  • 6th v 5th today as well so both teams are in good nick.

Getafe (6th)

  • 5 defeats only.
  • 4 of those did come at home.
  • Only 4 over 2.5 goals matches all season. Usually when I see this I back 0-0 pre match.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home is 56% of home matches.
  • Losses at home v 1st, 2nd, 11th and 12th (latterly 0-1).

Alaves (5th)

  • 5 defeats only, all coming away.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal away in each of their last 7.
  • Only played 2 of the top 7 away, losses v 1st and 2nd.

Conclusions

  • For me this could be tight and goal shy if the season long form continues. I would back 0-0 pre match and hope it is as tight as we expect.
  • That is my only angle really.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

3 of the big names in Portugal on the one night so well worth researching.

18:45 - Nacional v Braga - 1.79 Braga

  • Braga have tended to win head to heads.

Nacional (12th)

  • Inconsistent. 2 wins, then a draw and loss. 2 wins then 2 defeats.
  • A run of 4 unbeaten at home ended with a loss last match.
  • All defeats have come v the top 9. All defeats at home v top 9 bar 1-0 win v Guimaraes.
  • Scored 2 goals only once at home, usually an indicator for laying if leading.

Braga (3rd)

  • Only losses came away v the top sides.
  • 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime all season.
  • 100% wins v 11th and lower but only played 13th and 17th of teams 10th and lower away, 0-1 wins.
  • 8 of 12 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • I don't like inconsistent teams. Which Nacional will turn up today? The key factor is a near 100% loss record for them v the top 9 which should have us reaching for a Braga win, worst case draw, given only Porto and Benfica have got the better of Braga this season.
  • Slight concern the 2 0-1 wins for Braga v 11th and lower away so be prepared for a possible tight one but faith that Braga can eventually score. 75% of the time away, they score first half. Nacional are layable if leading - where's that 2nd goal at home?

19:00 - Chaves v Porto - 1.35 Porto

  • Porto don't tend to lose head to heads. 1-1 last time.

Chaves (17th)

  • Only 3 wins for the Chavs, 1 last match. 2 0-0's and a win in 3 a vast improvement over 8 consecutive defeats.
  • Whenever the Chavs have scored 2 goals, they have got a positive result.
  • 6 losses and a 2-2 though v top 7 home and away.

Porto (1st)

  • 2 losses v Guimaraes and Benfica.
  • 9 wins and a 0-0 last 10 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice so a 0-0 a rarity.
  • 100% wins v 6th and lower. Do note the 0-1 wins v 15th and 18th away.
  • 100% clean sheets v 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • 0-0 pre match to back might be the value here. The Chavs have lost 0-1 to 2 of the top sides at home and are coming off a recent run of 0-0's. Porto, too, have won only 0-1 v 15th and 18th away. I will cash out as late as I dare if the Chavs park that modified ford fiesta with 16 inch trims and a banging sound system in front of goal.
  • On seasonal form, we'd expect this Porto side to record a positive result.

21:15 - Guimaraes v Benfica - 1.78 Benfica

  • New manager Benfica, giant killers Guimaraes.

Guimaraes (5th)

  • 5 defeats only, 3 1-0 and 2 were 3-2.
  • 4 consecutive 1-0 results, 2 wins and 2 defeats.
  • 7 consecutive unbeaten matches at home.4 consecutive wins.
  • Scored in each of their last 7 at home.
  • 1-1 at home v 3rd, 1-0 win v 4th.

Benfica (2nd)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 7 wins in 8 matches. The latest defeat v Portimonense saw Benfica score their 2 goals and it resulted in the manager getting the sack.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not met the top 5 away and lost to 6th away, 7th home, 8th away.

Conclusions

  • This is going to be a tough match for Benfica v giant killers guimaraes who, remember, have only 1 home loss. An argument here for laying the first team to score. Guimaraes are keeping top teams to a single goal. Benfica have failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Benfica but for me, new manager may scupper that.