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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, December 18, 2020

I will do a review/preview at DRT Facebook. Friday is normally a day off from Telegram.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

20:00 - Preston v Bristol City - 2.30 Preston

Preston - 16th

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • All defeats v 8th-17th at home.
  • 9/12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Bristol City - 9th

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • 2 losses and a win last 3 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss away v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Bristol City away v 8th and lower have suffered only one defeat. Really compelling. Add to that Preston's 100% defeats at home v 8th-17th and the Challenge Table form is with Bristol City.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Athletic Bilbao v Huesca - 2.15 Athletic Bilbao

Athletic Bilbao - 13th

  • No win in 4 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins ended with a loss.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Only played one of 11th and lower at home, a 2-0 win v 18th.
  • 6/8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Huesca - 19th

  • First win of the season came last match.
  • 5 draws and 2 defeats away.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away matches.
  • Defeats away came v the top 4, all other draws.
  • 9/14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Athletic Bilbao look decent at home but there is a gap in form v 11th and lower.
  • Huesca, if they are to record a 2nd win, are likely to win 0-1 and are layable if leading 0-1 with insurance on the 0-1.
  • Both teams have scored in Huesca's last 4 away matches.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Union Berlin v Dortmund - 1.80 Dortmund

Union Berlin - 6th

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 3 score draws and a defeat last 4 matches.
  • 3 score draws and a win last 4 home matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 13 side.
  • 6 goals scored at home first 15 mins.

Dortmund - 4th

  • Only 1 win in 4 matches severely distracted by the Champions League.
  • But won last match and much improved.
  • Win, Win, Win, Draw, Win away, scoring and conceding last 3 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • Not played the top 8 away.
  • 10/11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Union are in decent nick, but play a Dortmund not distracted by the Champions league and coming off the back of a redemptive win latest. Dortmund are unbeaten away, but notably are yet to play the top 8 away so this unbeaten run needs a context.
  • Union Berlin are yet to beat the top 13 so a nod towards Dortmund IF they are on a return to reliable ways.
  • Do remember Dortmund's 2nd half scoring trend has been reliable.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - Zwolle v Emmen - 1.85 Zwolle

Zwolle - 11th

  • Only 4 defeats and they have come v arguably the top 4 established sides in Holland.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3/4 defeats came v the top 3.
  • 5/7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Emmen - 18th

  • No win.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All 4 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Zwolle only tend to lose to top sides, top 3 sides in fact and that forms the basis my my expectations here although they are drawing far too many matches. Draw worst case for them today.

RUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE

15:00 - Tambov v Ural - 1.33 Ural

Tambov - 16th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 6 consecutive defeats.
  • Conceded last 6 and last 5 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Opponents have scored first in 7/9 home matches.
  • All losses at home came v the top 10.
  • 0-0 last head to head.

Ural - 12th

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches came v Zenit.
  • 0-0 away v 14th and 1-2 win away v 15th.

Conclusions

  • I am not sure why Ural are such emphatic favourites. They have only 1 away win.
  • We must respect the market though. Tambov are conceding regularly but have lost at home v the top 10 only and play 12th today!

TURKISH SUPER LIG

16:00 - Karagumruk v Galatasaray - 1.8 Galatasary

Karagumruk - 9th

  • All 3 defeats came away.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side, where all 3 defeats came from.
  • Not played the top 6 at home yet.

Galatasary - 2nd

  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 matches.
  • 4 wins and a loss last 5 away matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 6 wins and a 1-1 v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Karagumruk are unbeaten at home but have not played the top 8 yet so that unbeaten run needs that context.
  • Gala are 2nd and are unbeaten v 8th and lower so I'd give them the nod.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

17:45 - Den Bosch v FC Eindhoven - 2.10 FC Eindhoven

Den Bosch - 19th

  • Only 2 wins came at home first 2 matches of the season.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 2 consecutive home 2-2 draws.
  • Conceded in their last 6 and last 6 at home.
  • Opponents scored first in 7/8 home matches.
  • All wins came at home v the bottom 3.
  • 9/11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

FC Eindhoven - 7th

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • Scored in their last 6 matches.
  • 6/7 wins came home and away v 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • It looks a little more clear cut than the market suggests.
  • Score draw best case for Den Bosch. FC Eindhoven tend to win v 13th and lower and, meeting the bottom 3 today, won emphatically at home v the bottom 3.

17:45 - NAC Breda v Volendam - 2.45 Volendam

NAC - 6th

  • Failed to score last 3 matches with 2 0-0's.
  • 0-0-1-0 goals scored at home recently.
  • No draw in 8 at home.
  • All defeats bar 1 came v the top 4.

Volendam - 5th

  • Unbeaten in 13 and in 7 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • 8/10 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • NAC lose to the top 4. Does that extend to 5th? Also, struggling to score at home lately might leave them vulnerable to a Volendam unbeaten in 13 matches.

20:00 - Jong AZ Alkmaar v Helmond - 2.25 Jong AZ

Jong AZ - 17th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 8 losses in their last 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Conceded last 7 at home.
  • Only home win was strangely a 7-2 v 3rd!!
  • 10/14 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Helmond Sport - 16th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • No win in 4 away.
  • Conceded last 6 away matches.
  • All 4 wins have come v 12th and lower.
  • 9/12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • These 2 win rarely but notably Helmond's wins come v 12th and lower and suggest they will enjoy meeting 17th today.
  • Do remember though that these 2 are a little iffy.

20:00 - MVV Maastricht v Dordrecht - 2.05 MVV

MVV - 20th

  • 8 defeats last 10 matches.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 home matches.
  • Conceded last 11 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3-0 home win v 14th, 3-3 home draw v 15th.

Dordrecht - 18th

  • 2 wins in 3 matches, only 2 of 3 wins all season.
  • Sole away win came last match 0-1.

Conclusions

  • These 2 are in poor form and may not be worth relying upon. Dordrecht won their only match away last match.
  • MVV have scoring 3 goals v 14th and 15th at home - coincidence or something they are capable of today?