DRT Daily Research Bulletin, August 18, 2017
What is the world coming to? Trump President. The Europa League tradable? Surely these are signs of the End Times? The favourites (bar Ajax and Fenerbahce) all pretty much consented to concede the first goal and then goal on and equalise or win. The big profit maker was the draw lay at 1.09 in the Dinamo Zagreb match.
Today sees the Spanish Primera Liga on board as well as a showcase German Bundesliga match.
19:45 - Burton v Birmingham - 2.7 Birmingham
- Burton have conceded first in 12/15 home matches while Birmingham have scored first in 15/20 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- Birmingham have drawn the first half in 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- 3 consecutive 2-0 Burton wins in head to heads. Now that surprised me as I personally Noted Burton as a team to oppose this season.
- I goal scored in 3 defeats for Burton meeting a Birmingham with a full set, Win, Loss, Draw. Birmingham failed to score in 2 matches.
- The market, I feel, is aware of the head to heads here. Because on current form, Burton will be strong outsiders.
FRENCH LIGUE 1
19:45 - Metz v Monaco - 1.36 Monaco
- 12 goals scored, none conceded last 2 times Monaco has beaten Metz. And they tend to beat Metz to nil.
- For the adventurous amongst you, whenever you see a pattern of winning to nil, think CORRECT SCORE market. Why? if there are wins to nil, then it is only a small pool of scores to work with, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5, 0-6, 0-7, 0-8, 0-9. We expect goals with Monaco so 0-1 and 0-2 could be left? I tend to go for 3 scorelines from the remaining. But if you are going over 0-4, use a bookmaker for better odds than Betfair's all-encompassing 'any other away score'.
- Metz have lost 5/7 home matches against top-six teams while Monaco have had W/W double results in 9/12 away matches.
- Monaco have won 13/15 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- 2 losses for Metz conceding 2 goals minimum. 2 wins for Monaco scoring 3 and 4 goals, albeit they have conceded in both matches.
- Will head to heads bring about another win to nil, or are Monaco 'doing a Liverpool'. We will simply outscore you?
19:00 - Roda JC v Vitesse - 1.89 Vitesse
- A very tradable league this one, but I do prefer focusing on Ajax, PSV, Twente and Feyenoord.
- 5 consecutive Vitesse wins in head to heads.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 Roda JC home matches against top-six teams and in 9/12 Vitesse away matches.
- Vitesse have scored first in 12/15 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- Roda conceded 4 goals in their opener. Vitesse scored 4 goals in their opener.
- Top 5 for Vitesse last season. Roda finished 2nd bottom. 7 wins and a draw away for Vitesse v the bottom 4 last season.
- At home last season, Roda failed to score against any of the top 5 and only won 1 match home and away v top 11 sides.
- Expectation really today is for Vitesse not to lose. That is how I would angle into this match.
The Dutch Eerste Divisie begins tonight. It is a staple trading diet on a Friday evening. I will not research these openers. As the season progresses we are likely to see a league punctuated by goals. It is a great league in which to lay any 0-0 at the start of the second half.One team tends to show itself in this league. VVV and Sparta Rotterdam have dominated in recent times.
SPANISH PRIMERA LIGA
19:15 - Leganes v Alaves - 2.12 Leganes
- 2-2 and 1-1 when these 2 met in 2017. 2 teams I am unlikely to pay much attention to throughout the season. A simple focus on Barcelona and Real Madrid will bring plenty of trading (Real for instance scored in every match last year - so what would you have done at 0-0 at halftime in a Real Madrid match? - Simple eh?).
- There have been -2.5 goals in 7/8 Leganes home matches against middle-third teams and they have drawn the first half in 5/8 such matches.
- Alaves have scored first in 5/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- The great escape from Leganes last season. All wins came v 13th and lower last season.Alaves ended the season 9th
- Having lost only 4 at home, that I suspect is where Alaves strengths lie this season. Alaves lost only 4 games home and away (out of 22 games) v 10th and lower.
- A slight nod towards Alaves here (as long as the teams remain as is).
21:15 - Valencia v Las Palmas - 1.83 Valencia
- Las Palmas has won the last 3 head to heads, which saw both teams score.
- Valencia have won 5/8 home matches against bottom-half teams while Las Palmas have lost 9/10 away matches against middle-third teams.
- Las Palmas have had L/L double results in 8/9 away matches against middle-third teams.
- In 9 home matches v top 15 last season, Valencia conceded at least 2 goals.
- Las Palmas only won one away match last season.....and that was v Valencia.
- 2 sides destined it seems for mid table mediocrity. You might want a throw-away 2-2 correct score back incase both teams score and Valencia continue to concede 2 goals at home.
19:30 - Bayern Munich v Bayer Leverkusen - 1.26 Bayern
- Leverkusen are very competitive when Bayern visit them but it tends to be a Bayern home win when Leverkusen visit.
- Bayern have won 11/12 home matches against middle-third teams while Leverkusen have lost 10/11 away matches against top-six teams.
- Bayern have won by two or more goals in 10/13 home matches against middle-third teams.
- Bayern were unbeaten at home last season. When they did draw, it was a score draw.
- Leverkusen used to be nailed on for a top 4 berth but a dire season last season.they only won 2 matches away v top 11 sides.
- £92.5 million transfers in for Bayern. Leverkusen has lost Chicarito the West Ham.
- There should be no surprises tonight.