Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Perfick, as Pop Larkin, that famous Betfair trader, would say. I thought Sunderland's defence impressed first leg 10 v 11 men, and so it proved yesterday. You would have been covered if you backed 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 pre match and stayed in. 0-0 it ended.
Laying Norrkoping if they scored first did oblige despite Norrkoping winning the match. The joys of trading! We are anticipating a future price movement, not calling the final result.
Yes, it's a dead rubber but 1.16 Young Boys fit into the halftime score strategy. 0-0 at 20 minutes, the mighty Young Boys scored 3 goals by halftime. Stick them on the watchlist for next season.
Kisa scored the 3 goals I predicted in Norway. Start scored my expected 2 goals, but it ended a desmond and a late late goal to make it 3-2.
If Sandefjord have scored 3-2-2-4 goals recently, what do you do at 0-0 80th minute? Expect a goal? 1-0 83rd minute winner for Sandy Toskvig.
Aalesunds scored their usual 3 goals but the market was not open for trading.
So the reason I review today is to show you there are still some angles to be had for the sharp-minded amongst you. With Sandefjord for example, it's a case of thinking 'heck if this lot averaged nearly 3 goals a game recently and haven't scored 80th minute, why not chance a 1-0, 2-0 correct score play?'
Onto today and I have researched China and Ireland. The reason I am a bit luke warm with China is its impractical kick-off times. And remember those dead rubbers today....Braga last match showed they had switched off, so give today's match a wide berth unless.....you feel Braga will want to sign off positively infront of home support.

ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE

19:45 - Charlton v Doncaster - 1.94 Charlton

  • 1-2 Charlton from the first leg saw them take a 0-2 lead before an 87th minute Doncaster goal. It does look as if it was a comprehensive job from Charlton who only conceded very late on.
  • Head to heads have been 1-1, 2-0 Charlton, 1-1, 1-2 Charlton in League One so consistently Charlton have not lost.
  • Doncaster simply need a 0-1 to take this to extra time but If Donny score first, the evidence points to laying them (maybe insurance a la Leeds the other day). Charlton's 1-1 in head to heads suggests they may be able to get back.
  • The rewards are huge here so we cannot discount an upset. I have given the form argument above.

IRISH PREMIER DIVISION

19:45 - Cork City v Dundalk - 1.55 Dundalk

  • This is usually the top 2 in the division but contrasting fortunes early doors for these 2.

Cork (8th)

  • Poor season. 2 consecutive wins to nil though. Only 2 wins in 8 at home though is well below usual standards. I am not sure what has changed at Cork.
  • 1-0 loss to Dundalk earlier this season.
  • Beat 3rd placed Bohs home and away but that was the only home win v top 7. When Cork have scored 2 goals at home, they have won.

Dundalk (1st)

  • 6 wins and a draw last 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away wins scoring 3-3-2 goals.
  • Away losses v 5th and 7th look a blip given the return to form recently.
  • Conceded 2 goals only once away.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form we are with Dundalk. Cork have scored 2 goals only twice at home and won. They play a Dundalk conceding 2 goals only once. If Cork score first, lay them. Dundalk are full of goals recently.

19:45 - St Patricks v Bohemians - 2.62 St Patricks

  • Unappealing market.
  • 5th v 3rd.
  • St Pats have only 1 win home and away v the top 6 and that was a home win v Dundalk.
  • They are yet to score a 2nd goal at home v the top 6.
  • 1-0 Bohs win the last time these 2 met.
  • Bohs have only lost away to last year's 1st and 2nd. 6/6 clean sheets in all other aways.
  • I would lay St Pats if they score first. Possible Bohs win to nil on away form but remember 2.62 odds are there for a reason. The market is unsure.

19:45 - UCD v Shamrock Rovers - 1.37 Shamrock Rovers

  • 6 consecutive defeats for UCD, failing to score in 5 of those matches.
  • 100% defeats home and away for UCD v the top 4, conceding 2/3 goals. Shamrock are 2nd.
  • 3-1 Shamrock win last time these 2 met.
  • 3 home wins did come v 6th and lower. UCD did beat Cork City at home.
  • 3 defeats in 4 for Shamrock is a bit of a wobble. They lost away to 1st, 3rd and 7th. UCD are 9th.
  • That loss away to 7th placed Sligo was only 1 loss amongst all other wins v 4th and lower.
  • Shamrock are going through poor form at the moment but generally beat 4th and lower home and away. UCD are yet to show winning form above 6th place. This really should go to Shamrock who have 2 consecutive 2-1 defeats away.

20:00 - Finn Harps v Waterford - 1.96 Waterford

  • Bottom v 6th.
  • Only 1 win for Finn came last home match, a 3-0 v UCD.
  • That follows 2 away 1-1 draws so Finn are unbeaten in 3 matches.
  • 6 consecutive home losses for Finn ended with that win.
  • 4-0 Waterford win the last time these 2 met.
  • 2-2-0-0-3-3 goals scored recently by Waterford. They failed to score v 1st and 2nd.
  • Strangely Waterford lost 4-1 away to 2nd bottom. That was  not red card affected so is a slight blow to the form.
  • That was the only loss for Waterford home and away v 5th and lower.
  • On probability alone, it is highly unlikely that Finn will suddenly record 2 consecutive home wins when they have only managed one win all season.
  • I do like Waterford's recent scoring outside of the top 2 i.e. 2-2-3-3 goals is quite something. Rely on that today?

IRISH FIRST DIVISION

19:45 - Athlone v Bray - 1.73 Bray

  • 8th v 6th.
  • Both of these 2 are in very poor form. 7 defeats and a 1-1 draw for Athlone. 5 defeats, a 1-1 and 2 wins at home for Bray.
  • Bray have failed to score in their last 4 away matches.
  • 0-1 win for Athlone last time these 2 met.
  • I think I will leave this Clash of the Titans (and by Titans I mean very bad teams) alone.

SPANISH SEGUNDA DIVISION

20:00 - Zaragoza v Sporting Gijon - 2.02 Zaragoza

  • 4 matches remain so plenty to play for.
  • Zaragoza are still relegation threatened but are getting nearer to survival.
  • Top 6 is a possibility for Sporting Gijon.

Zaragoza (14th)

  • 3 wins in 4.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 win v the top 11 was v 8th, a side they did the double over this season.
  • 1-2 win v Gijon earlier this season.
  • Scored 2 goals only once at home v top 13.

Sporting Gijon (9th)

  • 3 draws and a loss last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 away loss v 15th and lower.
  • Only 1 loss in 11 matches.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal in their last 8.

Conclusions

  • My conclusions are inconclusive! I would consider backing 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 pre match as it looks as if both sides are struggling for that 2nd goal. Note too Zaragoza clean sheets recently as well as Sporting failing to score that 2nd goal in 8 matches.
  • Other than that, this is a good example of 'just because we research it doesn't mean we have to trade!!'

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

20:30 - Braga v Portimonense - 1.46 Braga

  • Last match of the season and the only motivator for guaranteed 4th spot Braga is to win for home support.
  • Their lack of intensity is well advertised by 3 consecutive defeats knowing 4th place will remain theirs.
  • Only 3 home losses for Braga v 1st, 2nd and 10th. 1-1 v Portimonense earlier this season.
  • Portimonense have 100% defeats away v top 8.
  • Caution here. We did see, in Holland, that the big boys behaved last day. Is this the case today for a Braga who know it's not must win territory any more?

CHINESE SUPER LEAGUE

11am - Henan v Shanghai East Asia - 1.69 Shanghai

Henan (8th)

  • 2 draw, 3 losses, 3 wins this season. That clears that up then!
  • Scored and conceded all matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 matches.
  • Not played the early season top 5 yet this season.

Shanghai SIPG (2nd)

  • Only loss came at home v 4th.
  • 4 wins and a 0-0 since that loss.
  • Win, Win, Draw, Win away.
  • 3 clean sheets in last 4 matches

Conclusions

  • With Henan scoring and conceding this season and Shanghai in unbeaten away form, it seems obvious to lay any Henan lead.
  • Few matches for strong conclusions. SIPG, if keeping 11 on the pitch, look worthy enough favourites but then this Henan has scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 matches, albeit not yet played the top 5 this season.

12:35 - Beijing Guoan v Tianjin Quanjian - 1.21 Beijin

  • 100% wins for Beijing this season.
  • At home they have scored 3 goals at least on 3 occasions.
  • 7 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Tianjin have just the one win, a 2-3 away v Shenshua.
  • That was the only away win.
  • v the current top 5, Tianjin have conceded 0-3-3-4 which is a little ominous today.
  • Should be a standard win for the home side with 2/3 goals scored.

12:35 - Wuhan Zall v Guangzhou FC - 1.8 Guangzhou

  • 12th v 3rd here.
  • The Wuhan Clan have only 2 wins all season, one at home, one away.
  • 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 1-1 at home suggests they will be tough to score 2 against. Big boys Beijing only managed a 0-1 on their visit.
  • They have a 100% 4/4 loss record v the current top 6, albeit 3 of the matches came away.
  • Only 2 losses for Guangzhou came away and home.
  • Like Wuhan, Guangzhou lost 0-1 to Beijing recently.
  • 0-1, 2-1, 0-1 away for Guangzhou.
  • Guangzhou have failed to score only once this season.
  • For me, this could be a matter of laying the first team to score, take out the relevant 1-0/0-1 insurance. The away side have 2 away 0-1 wins, the home side 1 1-0 home and and 2 1-1's.
  • Remember Guangzhou have failed to score only once.

13:00 - Shanghai Shenhua v Shandong Luneng - 2.18 Shandong

  • Loss, Loss, Win, Loss for Shenshua at home who have scored and conceded in all bar the first match of the season and recorded only 2 wins.
  • Big gap in form at home for Shenshua - not played current 3rd - 13th at home. Playing 5th today.
  • The only win at home for Shenshua came v bottom of the league.
  • 2 consecutive 2-1 away losses for Luneng came v the current 2nd and 3rd. They have failed to score only once this season. They scored and conceded in all away matches.
  • Early in season but if Shenshua can only beat the current worst form side at home this season and if Luneng are only losing, albeit scoring v 2nd and 3rd away, there is a chance for the away side today. Do note the gap in form, 3rd-13th at home may indicate we don't have enough to go on to be really confident.