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League football returns today, and we have a fuller program of matches tomorrow. Very welcoming! The problem we have with a few leagues is that they are returning from a Winter Break. Will this break momentum? Patterns?

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Fulham v Middlesbrough - 1.93 Fulham

  • 1st goal: Middlesbrough have conceded first in 8/12 away matches against top-six teams and they have lost the first half in 8/12 away matches. Fulham have won 6/10 home matches.

Fulham - 4th

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • 4 wins and 2 losses last 6 matches.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home (14%).
  • Unbeaten at home v 15th and lower - 5 wins and a draw.

Middlesbrough - 16th

  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away (15%).
  • Only 2 away wins v 1st and 10th.

Conclusions

  • Both sides are in good recent form, but season-long, Fulham are consistently beating teams 15th and lower at home, and conveniently meet 16th today. Boro have only 2 away wins but 4 wins in 5 matches recently. Favour the season-long form?
  • Statistically lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Schalke v Mgladbach - 2.58 Schalke

  • 1st goal: Schalke 04 have conceded first in 7/9 home matches against top-six teams while B. M'gladbach have scored first in 6/10 away matches against top-six teams. Schalke 04 have lost 7/9 home matches against top-six teams.
  • A return after the Winter Break and 2.58 the favourite greets us!
  • A top 5 clash, 5th v 2nd.
  • Only 3 losses plays only 4 losses.
  • Neither side has played since 21st December so looking at 'recent form' is pointless. Largely, therefore, a look at the Challenge Table.
  • A noticeable pattern for Schalke, Only 1 win home and away v the top 9 did come away at Leipzig.
  • Mgladbach lost away to 4th, 9th and 11th.
  • Prior to the break, Schalke conceded 9 of 11 goals at home in the 2nd half.
  • Angles? Well, that is where I will leave this comeback match post Winter Break, but I will remind you that Schalke have only 1 win home and away v the top 9 and play 2nd today. Is this important?

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Leganes v Getafe - 2.98 Getafe

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 9/10 Leganes home matches against top half non-Big Two teams while Getafe have drawn the first half in 12/15 away matches against bottom-six teams. Getafe have drawn 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Goodness me, there is no let up from the market makers. 2.98 the favourite here in the Spanish La Liga suggests in-play stats or not at all.

Leganes - 19th

  • Unbeaten in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home wins albeit only 3 wins all season.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • All wins have come at home v 17th and lower.

Getafe - 7th

  • Strange to see Getafe not strong favourites here.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower.
  • Only 5 defeats all season. 2 consecutive defeats.
  • 1-1, 0-1, 0-1, 1-1 away v 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • The reason Getafe are not short priced favourites may be because of the short break, or their inability to score a 2nd goal away v 13th and lower, albeit not losing!
  • Leganes have only beaten 17th and lower this season, so why are they given a chance here? There must be a reason but I have to be with Getafe on all known form. They are unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower.

SCOTTISH FA CUP

19:45 - Rangers v Stranraer - 1.03 Rangers

  • 'Nuff said! You know the drill here. If 0-0 after 20 minutes you can sack the manager and back Rangers 1-0, 2-0, any other score in the halftime score market. Remember the expectation for 3+ goals from Rangers so if 0-0 at halftime, 3-0, 3-1, any other home score in the correct score market.

BELGIAN JULIPER LEAGUE

19:30 - Mechelen v Standard Liege - 2.32 Standard

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 6/10 KV Mechelen home matches and +2.5 goals in 13/17 Standard Liege away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 KV Mechelen home matches.
  • These 2 last met Boxing Day so this gap does muddy the waters a bit.
  • 2 consecutive wins for Mechelen when we last left them. Standard were their usual unreadable selves. 2 losses, 2 wins, 2 draw, 2 losses last 8 matches.
  • They scored and conceded in 7 of those 8 matches.
  • 6th v 5th in the league. Mechelen beat Standard 1-2 earlier this season.
  • All Standard away wins came v 13th and lower.
  • Angles? Not too keen on this muddling match. Mechelen's winning momentum was cut short by the Winter Break. Clearly Standard have struggled away from home and if that continues, Mechelen may not lose. Do remember this Standard, pre Boxing day, were as unreadable as a Jeffrey Archer Novel.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - PEC Zwolle v Utrecht - 2.1 Utrecht

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/10 Zwolle home matches and +3.5 goals in 12/20 Utrecht away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 10/11 Zwolle home matches.
  • Another match tainted by a near month since last played.
  • Only 1 draw all season PEC.
  • Only 2 draws all season Utrecht. Lay the late draw?
  • PEC Zwolle conceded in every match.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on seasonal stats.
  • PEC have lost all matches v the top 10 but gape in form - not played 5th-10th at home.
  • Utrecht have 4 wins, a draw and a loss away v 8th and lower.
  • Angles? Please remember no recent form and no match played since 21st December 2019. Utrecht look reasonable v teams below them away from home.
  • Both sides tend to avoid draws and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market if last year's patterns continue after the Winter Break.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - Volendam v Jong PSV - 1.18 Volendam

Volendam - 4th

  • 9 wins and a 3-3 last 10 matches.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home (20%).
  • Only home loss v 1st.
  • 3-1 loss to Jong PSV earlier this season.

Jong PSV - 17th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded last 10 away.
  • 2 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only away win v 9th.

Conclusions

  • Despite an emphatic Jong PSV win last time these 2 met, I cannot see it happening this time around. Jong PSV are dire away from home and Volendam are on a role, scoring 2+ goals in each of their last 7 matches.
  • 80% chance of a goal before hafltime so lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

NAC Breda v Jong AZ - 1.35 NAC

NAC - 6th

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • 2 wins in 3 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored last 8 at home.
  • 55% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3 losses at home v 2nd, 3rd, 11th were all 1-2.
  • 1-2 win v Jong AZ last time these 2 met.

Jong AZ - 13th

  • Only 6 wins, 5 of which came at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 10 and last 10 away.
  • Conceded last 20 matches.
  • No win in 9 away.
  • Only away win v 18th.
  • 10/14 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Jong AZ do not look equipped away to win today. If NAC Do lose it is likely to be 1-2. No win in 9 away for Jong AZ who have only 1 away win. Yes they do score and concede but likely without recording the win.

Eindhoven v Helmond Sport - 1.67 Eindhoven

  • 1st goal: FC Eindhoven have scored first in 13/20 home matches while Helmond have lost 9/11 away matches against middle-third teams. Helmond have lost by two or more goals in 6/10 away matches.

Eindhoven - 14th

  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home losses.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Unbeaten at home v 9th and lower, albeit only 5 matches played.
  • 80% goals scored, 78% goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Helmond Sport - 19th

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • Conceded last 10 away.
  • No win in 10.
  • Only away win v 20th.

Conclusions

  • Only 1 recent match played so an assumption form lines will keep post Winter Break. Both sides have a Danny Dyer Defence. Eindhoven may concede but should not lose based on their performances v 9th and lower at home.
  • Strong 2nd half bias Eindhoven so green light to lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • No win in 10 for Helmond should be no win in 11 for Helmond after this match.

Excelsior v Telstar - 1.95 Excelsior

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/10 Excelsior home matches and +3.5 goals in 5/9 Telstar away matches against top-half teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 7/10 Excelsior home matches.

Excelsior - 7th

  • Only 3 losses in 12 matches did all come at home.
  • Only 4 matches failing to score.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 9 at home.
  • No draw in 10 at home.
  • 9 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Lost 3-0 to Telstar last head to head but that was the only loss outside of the top 6 home and away.
  • 100% wins at home v 8th and lower.
  • They scored and conceded in all bar 1 of those wins.

Telstar - 9th

  • 2 draws and 2 wins last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 8 away.
  • Scored and conceded all bar 1 away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score is a strong trend. Over 2.5 goals is a strong trend.
  • Excelsior have a 100% win record v 8th and lower but lost 3-0 to Telstar earlier in the season. Slight niggle there.
  • Home side favoured here on that basis. So, with the likelihood of both teams scoring, lay Telstar if Telstar score first.

TOP Oss v Cambuur - 1.36 Cambuur

TOP Oss - 18th

  • 7 losses in 8.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 9 matches and last 3 at home.
  • 5-1 loss last head to head.
  • 8/11 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Cambuur - 1st

  • Only 4 losses.
  • 2 losses last 3 though.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 away.
  • No defeat in 9 away.
  • 45% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Top Oss did beat 2nd at home....so you speculators will get good odds about them beating 1st at home....but then reality may hit. 5-1 Cambuur last head to head, 7 losses in 8 for Oss, and only 4 losses for Cambuur should see the 3 points go away. Cambuur are unbeaten home and away v 7th and lower, and that is a lot of matches.

Almere City v De Graafschap - 2.05 De Graafschap

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 14/17 Almere City home matches against top-six teams and in 7/10 De Graafschap away matches. De Graafschap have scored first in 7/10 away matches.

Almere City - 10th

  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches at home.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • 1-0, 1-1, 1-0 v top 6 at home.

De Graafschap - 3rd

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 4 score draws in 5.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 8 away.
  • Only 1 away loss v top 13, but only 1 away win v top 13.
  • 10 of 13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • De Graafschap tend to be haunted by draws. Only 1 away loss...only 1 away win... v the top 13 away. Almere keep it tight when meeting top 6, and effectively so. 2 1-0 wins and a 1-1 draw.
  • This is a match too tight to call. Only 1 home loss plays only 1 away loss. I do fee a draw may pervade this match. If Almere cannot follow up with a 2nd goal v top 6 at home, lay them if they score first but do cover that 1-0 given their past history.

MVV Maastricht v NEC Nijmegen - 2.00 NEC Nijmegen

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 NEC away matches against bottom-six teams and +3.5 goals in 6/10 NEC such matches. Maastricht have scored first in 11/19 home matches.

MVV - 15th

  • Only 3 wins in 17 did come at home.
  • Those 3 wins came within the last 4 home matches.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side home or away.
  • 2-0 loss to NEC last head to head.
  • 67% goals scored, 69% goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

NEC - 8th

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score only 4 matches.
  • 5 wins and a loss away v 13th and lower.
  • 76% goals scored, 69% goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • NEC must fancy their chances. Scoring 2+ goals in 5 wins v 13th and lower away. Consistent form. MVV too not beating a top 9 side home or away helps matters.
  • Look at the very strong 2nd half goals bias so if 0-0 at halftime.....well..you don't need an invitation to take on that 0-0 2nd half.