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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, February 17, 2017

The Europa League is done for another week. I noted APOEL score first against Ath Bilbao - a clear trade there in a muddling day. Back to league football today and this weekend. If I am up and about I will live chat on Twitter @drtclub. No promises though.

19:00 - FC Oss v Den Bosch - 2.54 Oss

The home side has tended to win head to heads recently in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

FC Oss 100% stats

No clean sheet.
100% over 1.5 goals.

FC Oss other stats

All over 2.5 goals bar 3 matches.
4 losses in their last 5 matches.
No draw in 12 matches.
Scored and conceded in 9 home matches.
v 6th-12th at home, scored 2 goals at least and conceded 2 goals at least in all bar 1 of those matches. I mention this as Den Bosch are 13th.

Den Bosch 100% stats

Unbeaten v teams below them in the league - where Oss are.

Den Bosch other stats

3 losses in their last 4 matches.

Conclusions

I like FC Oss and would back 2-2 here today. Oss are scoring and conceding at least 2 goals v mid table teams. Den Bosch are scoring 2 goals at least v teams below them in the league.
Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market - logical really if we expect 4 goals at least.

19:00 - Waalwijk v Dordrecht - 1.85 Waalwijk

1-2 Waalwijk and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads in Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Waalwijk 100% stats

No 0-0.
2 wins out of 2 at home v bottom 2 (Dordrecht are bottom 3).

Waalwijk other stats

3 losses and a 2-3 win in their last 4 matches.
Failed to score in only 4 matches.
Only 5 clean sheets.
Failed to score in only 1 home match.

Dordrecht 100% stats

All defeats away v top 12 teams and play 11th today.
No win away v top 17 sides.
Not won to nil away.

Dordrecht other stats

Only 4 wins.
Only 4 clean sheets.
Failed to score in only 5 matches.
Only 2 wins in 16 matches.

Conclusions

Lay any late 0-0.
Given these 2 tend to score and concede, both teams scoring looks an obvious call.
On form, I would be with Waalwijk today. Dordrecht away just tend to lose. Waalwijk have also shown they can beat the bottom 3 sides.

19:00 - Roda JC v Go Ahead Eagles - 2.1 Roda

2-0 Go Ahead in the last head to head in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Roda 100% stats

No over 4.5 goals matches at home.

Roda other stats

Only 2 wins.
Only 6 over 2.5 goals matches.
5 0-0's at halftime at home.

Go Ahead Eagles 100% stats

No 0-0.
Won 2 at home v bottom 3 and lost 2 away v bottom 3.

Go Ahead Eagles other stats

2 consecutive wins.
1-1, 1-1, 1-2 away last 3 matches.
Only 3 clean sheets.
Conceded in their last 10 and last 11 away.
14 of 20 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

Mixed signals from Go ahead v bottom 3 sides.
I would lay any late 0-0.
Not a match I want to play in. These 2 teams are struggling.

19:00 - Almere City v Cambuur - 2.2 Cambuur

Cambuur won 4-1 in the last Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Almere City 100% stats

All wins at home v 4th and lower.
No 0-0.

Almere City other stats

2 consecutive 3-1 wins.
Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
Failed to score in only 2 matches.
Scored in their last 10 matches.

Cambuur 100% stats

No 0-0.
No over 4.5 goals matches away.
Scored and conceded in 7 of 9 matches v teams above them in the league.

Cambuur other stats

Only 3 losses in 13 matches.

Conclusions

Cambuur's away form has no pattern to it. That is a problem.
Both teams could score today, that would be the sole angle for me.
Despite Cambuur winning emphatically in the previous head to head, we must note that Almere are solid at home. So I would see value in going against the odds and laying Cambuur if Cambuur score first.

19:00 - Achilles 29 v Jong Ajax - 1.4 Jong

Achilles are bottom of the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Achilles 29 100% stats

No win v top 8, where Ajax are positioned.
Not won to nil.

Achilles 29 other stats

Only 2 wins saw both teams score.
Only 1 clean sheet.
Not beaten a top 8 side, losing all bar a 0-0.

Jong Ajax 100% stats

Scored 2 goals at least in all matches v teams 13th and lower.

Jong Ajax other stats

Only 5 defeats.
Failed to score in only 3 matches.
Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
Only 4 clean sheets.
Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches away.

Conclusions

Achilles certainly should not be winning today. They could concede 2 goals at least.
Achilles may score and a hope they score first as I would back Jong Ajax.
I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market, despite no stats available.

19:00 - De Graafschap v Telstar - 1.55 De Graaf

2-1 Telstar in the last Dutch Eerste Divisie head to head.

De Graafschap 100% stats

No home 0-0.
No draw at home v 6th and lower - Telstar are 14th.
At least one team scored 3 goals in De Graaf's home matches v 6th and lower.

De Graafschap other stats

9 defeats in their last 12 matches.
Only 4 clean sheets.

Telstar other stats

3-1, 3-4 and 1-1 in the last 3 matches.
Scored and conceded in their last 6 away matches.

Conclusions

Lay any late draw.
Expect one team to score 3 goals at least today so we should see a goal fest in which both teams score.
The market expects De Graaf to dominate so they are the 3 goal goalscorers?

19:30 - Augsburg v Leverkusen - 2.38 Leverkusen

4 consecutive draws in head to heads, 3 were score draws and the last draw was a 0-0.

Augsburg 100% stats

Not led at halftime at home.
Not beaten a top 9 side home or away (Leverkusen are 9th).
No home match with exactly 3 goals.

Augsburg other stats

Not scored 2 goals in a home match v the top 14 teams.

Leverkusen 100% stats

No away 0-0.
Not led at halftime away.
All away wins v 11th, 12th and 14th away and play 13th today.
All wins and defeats away have been by a single goal.

Leverkusen other stats

Only 4 clean sheets.
Failed to score in only 3 matches.

Conclusions

Lay any late draw and hope the 4 match head to head draw sequence ends?
Slight nod in Leverkusen's favour given Augsburg are yet to beat a top 9 team, and Leverkusen have a 100% win record v 11th-14th inclusive, a small band of teams which include Augsburg by the way!

19:30 - Westerlo v Club Brugge - 1.44 Club Brugge

6 -0 and 1-0 0 Club Brugge in the last 2 head to heads in Belgian Pro League.

Westerlo 100% stats

Not beaten a top 9 team at home.
Scored and conceded in defeat at home v top 3 teams (Club Brugge are 2nd).
Not lost to nil at home.

Westerlo other stats

Nothing that stands out.

Club Brugge 100% stats

Beaten all bottom 3 sides (where Westerlo reside).
Not conceded in both halves away.
No away match with exactly 4 goals.

Club Brugge other stats

Lost their last 2 away matches.
Vulnerable away from home but clearly score heavily v bottom 3 sides.
7 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

Clearly Club Brugge struggle on their travels but they have scored 3-4-4-2-3 goals v bottom 3 sides. That's consistent and that's a 100% winning record.
With Westerlo themselves losing to all top 3 sides, we should see another away win today, albeit both teams could score.
I would back Westerlo if Club Brugge scored first.
If 0-0 at halftime I would venture towards the correct score market and a Club Brugge win by 2 or more goals.

19:45 - Granada v Betis - 2.82 Betis

2-2 the last time these 2 teams met in the Spanish Primera Liga.

Granada 100 stats

No over 3.5 goals matches at home.

Granada other stats

Only 2 wins.
Only 1 loss in 6 home matches saw those 2 wins so reasonable home form despite the dire season.
Only 1 0-0.
5 0-0's at halftime at home.
Scored 2 goals in only 1 home match.
8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Betis 100% stats

No away draw.
Unbeaten v teams below them in the league - Granada are 19th.
Not won to nil away.

Betis other stats

2 0-0's and a 1-1 last 3 matches.
Kept Barcelona to a 1-1 and Atl Madrid to a 0-0 recently.
Conceded in their last 9 aways though.
2-2 and 1-2 win v bottom 2 sides home and away.
Opponents scored first in 7/9 aways.

Conclusions

As tough as the market suggests. I can argue for a good performance from Granada based on recent home form, then I could point you to Betis keeping Atl Madrid and Barcelona quiet in recent matches.
Lay any late draw and hope Betis continue to avoid away draws?

19:45 - Juventus v Palermo - 1.17 Juventus

Juventus 100% stats

No draw.
All home wins.
Not conceded 2 goals in a home match.
Unbeaten at halftime at home.
No 0-0.
3 or 4 goals scored at home v teams 13th and lower.

Juventus other stats

4 2-0 wins in their last 5 matches.
7 clean sheets in their last 8 matches.
Failed to score only once.

Palermo 100% stats

Bottom 3 troubles.
Failed to score 2 goals in a match away v top 15 sides.
No 0-0.

Palermo other stats

Only 3 wins.
Only 2 clean sheets.
Conceded last 9 away matches.
Only 1 lead at halftime away. 5 0-0's.
1-1 v Napoli away, 1-1 v Inter away, 0-1 win v Atalanta away so if Juve have a pre Champions League wobble, Palermo could surprise.
16 of 23 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

We assume Juventus will not do a Dortmund or Bayern and turn into a pub side pre-Champions League. On form, Juventus will be scoring 3/4 goals today and possibly win to nil but not concede 2 goals.
Palermo are there to exploit any under-performance. Look at admirable away performances v top 5 sides so watch out for that.
Juventus have tended recently to lead at halftime so factor that in.

19:45 - Bastia v Monaco - 1.58 Monaco

5-0 to Monaco the last time these 2 met in French Ligue 1.
League leaders Monaco take on 2nd from bottom Bastia.
Monaco play Manchester City on the 21st February in the Champions League.

Bastia 100% stats

Not beaten a top 7 side.
Not scored 2 goals in a home match v top 8 sides.
No over 3.5 goals matches at home.

Bastia other stats

Only 2 wins in 17 matches.
Only 5 clean sheets.
Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 13 matches.

Monaco 100% stats

No 0-0.
All wins v 14th and lower.
Scored 3-5 goals in 3 matches v bottom 2.

Monaco other stats

Only 3 defeats.
Failed to score only once.
Scored first in 10/12 away matches.

Conclusions

If the Champions League does not turn Monaco into Monaghan United, they should score 3+ goals today and win rather comfortably.
Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the expectation for goals.
Will Bastia score? They have scored and conceded in 10 of their last 13 matches.