DRT Daily Research Bulletin, February 17, 2017

The Europa League is done for another week. I noted APOEL score first against Ath Bilbao - a clear trade there in a muddling day. Back to league football today and this weekend. If I am up and about I will live chat on Twitter @drtclub. No promises though.
19:00 - FC Oss v Den Bosch - 2.54 Oss
- The home side has tended to win head to heads recently in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.
FC Oss 100% stats
- No clean sheet.
- 100% over 1.5 goals.
FC Oss other stats
- All over 2.5 goals bar 3 matches.
- 4 losses in their last 5 matches.
- No draw in 12 matches.
- Scored and conceded in 9 home matches.
- v 6th-12th at home, scored 2 goals at least and conceded 2 goals at least in all bar 1 of those matches. I mention this as Den Bosch are 13th.
Den Bosch 100% stats
- Unbeaten v teams below them in the league - where Oss are.
Den Bosch other stats
- 3 losses in their last 4 matches.
Conclusions
- I like FC Oss and would back 2-2 here today. Oss are scoring and conceding at least 2 goals v mid table teams. Den Bosch are scoring 2 goals at least v teams below them in the league.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market - logical really if we expect 4 goals at least.
19:00 - Waalwijk v Dordrecht - 1.85 Waalwijk
- 1-2 Waalwijk and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads in Dutch Eerste Divisie.
Waalwijk 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- 2 wins out of 2 at home v bottom 2 (Dordrecht are bottom 3).
Waalwijk other stats
- 3 losses and a 2-3 win in their last 4 matches.
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- Only 5 clean sheets.
- Failed to score in only 1 home match.
Dordrecht 100% stats
- All defeats away v top 12 teams and play 11th today.
- No win away v top 17 sides.
- Not won to nil away.
Dordrecht other stats
- Only 4 wins.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- Failed to score in only 5 matches.
- Only 2 wins in 16 matches.
Conclusions
- Lay any late 0-0.
- Given these 2 tend to score and concede, both teams scoring looks an obvious call.
- On form, I would be with Waalwijk today. Dordrecht away just tend to lose. Waalwijk have also shown they can beat the bottom 3 sides.
19:00 - Roda JC v Go Ahead Eagles - 2.1 Roda
- 2-0 Go Ahead in the last head to head in the Dutch Eredivisie.
Roda 100% stats
- No over 4.5 goals matches at home.
Roda other stats
- Only 2 wins.
- Only 6 over 2.5 goals matches.
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
Go Ahead Eagles 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- Won 2 at home v bottom 3 and lost 2 away v bottom 3.
Go Ahead Eagles other stats
- 2 consecutive wins.
- 1-1, 1-1, 1-2 away last 3 matches.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- Conceded in their last 10 and last 11 away.
- 14 of 20 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- Mixed signals from Go ahead v bottom 3 sides.
- I would lay any late 0-0.
- Not a match I want to play in. These 2 teams are struggling.
19:00 - Almere City v Cambuur - 2.2 Cambuur
- Cambuur won 4-1 in the last Dutch Eerste Divisie.
Almere City 100% stats
- All wins at home v 4th and lower.
- No 0-0.
Almere City other stats
- 2 consecutive 3-1 wins.
- Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
- Failed to score in only 2 matches.
- Scored in their last 10 matches.
Cambuur 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- No over 4.5 goals matches away.
- Scored and conceded in 7 of 9 matches v teams above them in the league.
Cambuur other stats
- Only 3 losses in 13 matches.
Conclusions
- Cambuur's away form has no pattern to it. That is a problem.
- Both teams could score today, that would be the sole angle for me.
- Despite Cambuur winning emphatically in the previous head to head, we must note that Almere are solid at home. So I would see value in going against the odds and laying Cambuur if Cambuur score first.
19:00 - Achilles 29 v Jong Ajax - 1.4 Jong
- Achilles are bottom of the Dutch Eerste Divisie.
Achilles 29 100% stats
- No win v top 8, where Ajax are positioned.
- Not won to nil.
Achilles 29 other stats
- Only 2 wins saw both teams score.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Not beaten a top 8 side, losing all bar a 0-0.
Jong Ajax 100% stats
- Scored 2 goals at least in all matches v teams 13th and lower.
Jong Ajax other stats
- Only 5 defeats.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches away.
Conclusions
- Achilles certainly should not be winning today. They could concede 2 goals at least.
- Achilles may score and a hope they score first as I would back Jong Ajax.
- I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market, despite no stats available.
19:00 - De Graafschap v Telstar - 1.55 De Graaf
- 2-1 Telstar in the last Dutch Eerste Divisie head to head.
De Graafschap 100% stats
- No home 0-0.
- No draw at home v 6th and lower - Telstar are 14th.
- At least one team scored 3 goals in De Graaf's home matches v 6th and lower.
De Graafschap other stats
- 9 defeats in their last 12 matches.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
Telstar other stats
- 3-1, 3-4 and 1-1 in the last 3 matches.
- Scored and conceded in their last 6 away matches.
Conclusions
- Lay any late draw.
- Expect one team to score 3 goals at least today so we should see a goal fest in which both teams score.
- The market expects De Graaf to dominate so they are the 3 goal goalscorers?
19:30 - Augsburg v Leverkusen - 2.38 Leverkusen
- 4 consecutive draws in head to heads, 3 were score draws and the last draw was a 0-0.
Augsburg 100% stats
- Not led at halftime at home.
- Not beaten a top 9 side home or away (Leverkusen are 9th).
- No home match with exactly 3 goals.
Augsburg other stats
- Not scored 2 goals in a home match v the top 14 teams.
Leverkusen 100% stats
- No away 0-0.
- Not led at halftime away.
- All away wins v 11th, 12th and 14th away and play 13th today.
- All wins and defeats away have been by a single goal.
Leverkusen other stats
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
Conclusions
- Lay any late draw and hope the 4 match head to head draw sequence ends?
- Slight nod in Leverkusen's favour given Augsburg are yet to beat a top 9 team, and Leverkusen have a 100% win record v 11th-14th inclusive, a small band of teams which include Augsburg by the way!
19:30 - Westerlo v Club Brugge - 1.44 Club Brugge
- 6 -0 and 1-0 0 Club Brugge in the last 2 head to heads in Belgian Pro League.
Westerlo 100% stats
- Not beaten a top 9 team at home.
- Scored and conceded in defeat at home v top 3 teams (Club Brugge are 2nd).
- Not lost to nil at home.
Westerlo other stats
Club Brugge 100% stats
- Beaten all bottom 3 sides (where Westerlo reside).
- Not conceded in both halves away.
- No away match with exactly 4 goals.
Club Brugge other stats
- Lost their last 2 away matches.
- Vulnerable away from home but clearly score heavily v bottom 3 sides.
- 7 0-0's at halftime away.
Conclusions
- Clearly Club Brugge struggle on their travels but they have scored 3-4-4-2-3 goals v bottom 3 sides. That's consistent and that's a 100% winning record.
- With Westerlo themselves losing to all top 3 sides, we should see another away win today, albeit both teams could score.
- I would back Westerlo if Club Brugge scored first.
- If 0-0 at halftime I would venture towards the correct score market and a Club Brugge win by 2 or more goals.
19:45 - Granada v Betis - 2.82 Betis
- 2-2 the last time these 2 teams met in the Spanish Primera Liga.
Granada 100 stats
- No over 3.5 goals matches at home.
Granada other stats
- Only 2 wins.
- Only 1 loss in 6 home matches saw those 2 wins so reasonable home form despite the dire season.
- Only 1 0-0.
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
- Scored 2 goals in only 1 home match.
- 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Betis 100% stats
- No away draw.
- Unbeaten v teams below them in the league - Granada are 19th.
- Not won to nil away.
Betis other stats
- 2 0-0's and a 1-1 last 3 matches.
- Kept Barcelona to a 1-1 and Atl Madrid to a 0-0 recently.
- Conceded in their last 9 aways though.
- 2-2 and 1-2 win v bottom 2 sides home and away.
- Opponents scored first in 7/9 aways.
Conclusions
- As tough as the market suggests. I can argue for a good performance from Granada based on recent home form, then I could point you to Betis keeping Atl Madrid and Barcelona quiet in recent matches.
- Lay any late draw and hope Betis continue to avoid away draws?
19:45 - Juventus v Palermo - 1.17 Juventus
Juventus 100% stats
- No draw.
- All home wins.
- Not conceded 2 goals in a home match.
- Unbeaten at halftime at home.
- No 0-0.
- 3 or 4 goals scored at home v teams 13th and lower.
Juventus other stats
- 4 2-0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 7 clean sheets in their last 8 matches.
- Failed to score only once.
Palermo 100% stats
- Bottom 3 troubles.
- Failed to score 2 goals in a match away v top 15 sides.
- No 0-0.
Palermo other stats
- Only 3 wins.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Conceded last 9 away matches.
- Only 1 lead at halftime away. 5 0-0's.
- 1-1 v Napoli away, 1-1 v Inter away, 0-1 win v Atalanta away so if Juve have a pre Champions League wobble, Palermo could surprise.
- 16 of 23 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- We assume Juventus will not do a Dortmund or Bayern and turn into a pub side pre-Champions League. On form, Juventus will be scoring 3/4 goals today and possibly win to nil but not concede 2 goals.
- Palermo are there to exploit any under-performance. Look at admirable away performances v top 5 sides so watch out for that.
- Juventus have tended recently to lead at halftime so factor that in.
19:45 - Bastia v Monaco - 1.58 Monaco
- 5-0 to Monaco the last time these 2 met in French Ligue 1.
- League leaders Monaco take on 2nd from bottom Bastia.
- Monaco play Manchester City on the 21st February in the Champions League.
Bastia 100% stats
- Not beaten a top 7 side.
- Not scored 2 goals in a home match v top 8 sides.
- No over 3.5 goals matches at home.
Bastia other stats
- Only 2 wins in 17 matches.
- Only 5 clean sheets.
- Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 13 matches.
Monaco 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- All wins v 14th and lower.
- Scored 3-5 goals in 3 matches v bottom 2.
Monaco other stats
- Only 3 defeats.
- Failed to score only once.
- Scored first in 10/12 away matches.
Conclusions
- If the Champions League does not turn Monaco into Monaghan United, they should score 3+ goals today and win rather comfortably.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the expectation for goals.
- Will Bastia score? They have scored and conceded in 10 of their last 13 matches.