Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

The Europa League is done for another week. I noted APOEL score first against Ath Bilbao - a clear trade there in a muddling day. Back to league football today and this weekend. If I am up and about I will live chat on Twitter @drtclub. No promises though.

19:00 - FC Oss v Den Bosch - 2.54 Oss

  • The home side has tended to win head to heads recently in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

FC Oss 100% stats

  • No clean sheet.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

FC Oss other stats

  • All over 2.5 goals bar 3 matches.
  • 4 losses in their last 5 matches.
  • No draw in 12 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 home matches.
  • v 6th-12th at home, scored 2 goals at least and conceded 2 goals at least in all bar 1 of those matches. I mention this as Den Bosch are 13th.

Den Bosch 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league - where Oss are.

Den Bosch other stats

  • 3 losses in their last 4 matches.

Conclusions

  • I like FC Oss and would back 2-2 here today. Oss are scoring and conceding at least 2 goals v mid table teams. Den Bosch are scoring 2 goals at least v teams below them in the league.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market - logical really if we expect 4 goals at least.

19:00 - Waalwijk v Dordrecht - 1.85 Waalwijk

  • 1-2 Waalwijk and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads in Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Waalwijk 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • 2 wins out of 2 at home v bottom 2 (Dordrecht are bottom 3).

Waalwijk other stats

  • 3 losses and a 2-3 win in their last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 1 home match.

Dordrecht 100% stats

  • All defeats away v top 12 teams and play 11th today.
  • No win away v top 17 sides.
  • Not won to nil away.

Dordrecht other stats

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Only 2 wins in 16 matches.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Given these 2 tend to score and concede, both teams scoring looks an obvious call.
  • On form, I would be with Waalwijk today. Dordrecht away just tend to lose. Waalwijk have also shown they can beat the bottom 3 sides.

19:00 - Roda JC v Go Ahead Eagles - 2.1 Roda

  • 2-0 Go Ahead in the last head to head in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Roda 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.

Roda other stats

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 6 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.

Go Ahead Eagles 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Won 2 at home v bottom 3 and lost 2 away v bottom 3.

Go Ahead Eagles other stats

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • 1-1, 1-1, 1-2 away last 3 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 10 and last 11 away.
  • 14 of 20 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Mixed signals from Go ahead v bottom 3 sides.
  • I would lay any late 0-0.
  • Not a match I want to play in. These 2 teams are struggling.

19:00 - Almere City v Cambuur - 2.2 Cambuur

  • Cambuur won 4-1 in the last Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Almere City 100% stats

  • All wins at home v 4th and lower.
  • No 0-0.

Almere City other stats

  • 2 consecutive 3-1 wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 matches.

Cambuur 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of 9 matches v teams above them in the league.

Cambuur other stats

  • Only 3 losses in 13 matches.

Conclusions

  • Cambuur's away form has no pattern to it. That is a problem.
  • Both teams could score today, that would be the sole angle for me.
  • Despite Cambuur winning emphatically in the previous head to head, we must note that Almere are solid at home. So I would see value in going against the odds and laying Cambuur if Cambuur score first.

19:00 - Achilles 29 v Jong Ajax - 1.4 Jong

  • Achilles are bottom of the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Achilles 29 100% stats

  • No win v top 8, where Ajax are positioned.
  • Not won to nil.

Achilles 29 other stats

  • Only 2 wins saw both teams score.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side, losing all bar a 0-0.

Jong Ajax 100% stats

  • Scored 2 goals at least in all matches v teams 13th and lower.

Jong Ajax other stats

  • Only 5 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches away.

Conclusions

  • Achilles certainly should not be winning today. They could concede 2 goals at least.
  • Achilles may score and a hope they score first as I would back Jong Ajax.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market, despite no stats available.

19:00 - De Graafschap v Telstar - 1.55 De Graaf

  • 2-1 Telstar in the last Dutch Eerste Divisie head to head.

De Graafschap 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • No draw at home v 6th and lower - Telstar are 14th.
  • At least one team scored 3 goals in De Graaf's home matches v 6th and lower.

De Graafschap other stats

  • 9 defeats in their last 12 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.

Telstar other  stats

  • 3-1, 3-4 and 1-1 in the last 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw.
  • Expect one team to score 3 goals at least today so we should see a goal fest in which both teams score.
  • The market expects De Graaf to dominate so they are the 3 goal goalscorers?

19:30 - Augsburg v Leverkusen - 2.38 Leverkusen

  • 4 consecutive draws in head to heads, 3 were score draws and the last draw was a 0-0.

Augsburg 100% stats

  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side home or away (Leverkusen are 9th).
  • No home match with exactly 3 goals.

Augsburg other stats

  • Not scored 2 goals in a home match v the top 14 teams.

Leverkusen 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • All away wins v 11th, 12th and 14th away and play 13th today.
  • All wins and defeats away have been by a single goal.

Leverkusen other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw and hope the 4 match head to head draw sequence ends?
  • Slight nod in Leverkusen's favour given Augsburg are yet to beat a top 9 team, and Leverkusen have a 100% win record v 11th-14th inclusive, a small band of teams which include Augsburg by the way!

19:30 - Westerlo v Club Brugge - 1.44 Club Brugge

  • 6 -0 and 1-0 0 Club Brugge in the last 2 head to heads in Belgian Pro League.

Westerlo 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 9 team at home.
  • Scored and conceded in defeat at home v top 3 teams (Club Brugge are 2nd).
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Westerlo other stats

  • Nothing that stands out.

Club Brugge 100% stats

  • Beaten all bottom 3 sides (where Westerlo reside).
  • Not conceded in both halves away.
  • No away match with exactly 4 goals.

Club Brugge other stats

  • Lost their last 2 away matches.
  • Vulnerable away from home but clearly score heavily v bottom 3 sides.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Clearly Club Brugge struggle on their travels but they have scored 3-4-4-2-3 goals v bottom 3 sides. That's consistent and that's a 100% winning record.
  • With Westerlo themselves losing to all top 3 sides, we should see another away win today, albeit both teams could score.
  • I would back Westerlo if Club Brugge scored first.
  • If 0-0 at halftime I would venture towards the correct score market and a Club Brugge win by 2 or more goals.

19:45 - Granada v Betis - 2.82 Betis

  • 2-2 the last time these 2 teams met in the Spanish Primera Liga.

Granada 100 stats

  • No over 3.5 goals matches at home.

Granada other stats

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 home matches saw those 2 wins so reasonable home form despite the dire season.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Scored 2 goals in only 1 home match.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Betis 100% stats

  • No away draw.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league - Granada are 19th.
  • Not won to nil away.

Betis other stats

  • 2 0-0's and a 1-1 last 3 matches.
  • Kept Barcelona to a 1-1 and Atl Madrid to a 0-0 recently.
  • Conceded in their last 9 aways though.
  • 2-2 and 1-2 win v bottom 2 sides home and away.
  • Opponents scored first in 7/9 aways.

Conclusions

  • As tough as the market suggests. I can argue for a good performance from Granada based on recent home form, then I could point you to Betis keeping Atl Madrid and Barcelona quiet in recent matches.
  • Lay any late draw and hope Betis continue to avoid away draws?

19:45 - Juventus v Palermo - 1.17 Juventus

Juventus 100% stats

  • No draw.
  • All home wins.
  • Not conceded 2 goals in a home match.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • 3 or 4 goals scored at home v teams 13th and lower.

Juventus other stats

  • 4 2-0 wins in their last 5 matches.
  • 7 clean sheets in their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.

Palermo 100% stats

  • Bottom 3 troubles.
  • Failed to score 2 goals in a match away v top 15 sides.
  • No 0-0.

Palermo other stats

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 9 away matches.
  • Only 1 lead at halftime away. 5 0-0's.
  • 1-1 v Napoli away, 1-1 v Inter away, 0-1 win v Atalanta away so if Juve have a pre Champions League wobble, Palermo could surprise.
  • 16 of 23 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • We assume Juventus will not do a Dortmund or Bayern and turn into a pub side pre-Champions League. On form, Juventus will be scoring 3/4 goals today and possibly win to nil but not concede 2 goals.
  • Palermo are there to exploit any under-performance. Look at admirable away performances v top 5 sides so watch out for that.
  • Juventus have tended recently to lead at halftime so factor that in.

19:45 - Bastia v Monaco - 1.58 Monaco

  • 5-0 to Monaco the last time these 2 met in French Ligue 1.
  • League leaders Monaco take on 2nd from bottom Bastia.
  • Monaco play Manchester City on the 21st February in the Champions League.

Bastia 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 7 side.
  • Not scored 2 goals in a home match v top 8 sides.
  • No over 3.5 goals matches at home.

Bastia other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 17 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 13 matches.

Monaco 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All wins v 14th and lower.
  • Scored 3-5 goals in 3 matches v bottom 2.

Monaco other stats

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored first in 10/12 away matches.

Conclusions

  • If the Champions League does not turn Monaco into Monaghan United, they should score 3+ goals today and win rather comfortably.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the expectation for goals.
  • Will Bastia score? They have scored and conceded in 10 of their last 13 matches.