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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, April 17, 2015

Prices taken from www.willhill.com

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

  • Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

  • Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

  • Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

  • Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds)

  • Lay the underdog  scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market , especially in BANKER matches.

It was a tough evening last night but I nailed the Sevilla v Zenit match. Zenit scored first and Sevilla scored 2.

17:00 UK Lok Zagreb v Dinamo Zagreb - 1.36 away

Standout Stats

  • 15 wins in the last 16 head to heads for Dinamo Zagreb
  • This is 3rd v 1st in the Croat top league. Despite the close proximity of the positions, there is a 26 point gap between the 2.

Lok Zagreb

  • Scored in their last 5 home matches.
  • Conceded  5 and 2 in their last 2 home matches.
  • 3-4, 3-0, 2-1 losses already to Dinamo Zagreb this season. 2 of the matches have been one-goal-in-it, you'll note.
  • Recently beat 2nd in the league 1-0 at home
  • Only 1 0-0

Dinamo Zagreb

  • No defeat in 26 matches and in 12 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 away matches.
  • 5 draws in their last 6 away matches, includes 3 consecutive score draws now.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches all season.
  • Both teams scored in 2/3rd of away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Dinamo Zagreb are unlikely to lose, and are utterly dominant in head to heads. They have already beaten Lok 3 times this season, 2 of the matches were by one goal.
  • Dinamo Zagreb have 5 draws in 6 away matches which is a concern to away backers. It does suggest we oppose the home team if they score first.
  • Both teams could score today and Dinamo perhaps edge it by a single goal if they are to end this draw sequence.
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17:30 UK Ingolstadt v Fortuna Dusseldorf - 1.57 home

Standout Stats

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's in head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 7th in Bundesliga 2

Ingolstadt

  • 2 match winning streak
  • Scored in their last 14 home matches.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 all season.
  • Only 3 defeats all season
  • Losses at home were v 4th and 8th 1-3
  • Scored in all home matches.

Dusseldorf

  • 2 match losing streak away
  • Conceded in their last 5 away
  • Conceded 3-3-1-2-3-0-4-1 recently. Did conceded 3 and 4 in their last 2 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches. Scored and conceded in all away matches v top 10

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A good angle in? Ingolstadt are highly likely to score today so factor that into any 0-0 or if they are losing in-play.
  • Dusseldorf conceded 7 in their last 2 away matches so they should concede.
  • Both teams could score today so lay any team 2-0/0-2 up.
  • I expect the home side not to lose and expect goals.
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17:30 UK Midtjylland (Mid) v Silkeborg - 1.33 home

Standout Stats

  • Both teams have scored in the last 9 head to heads.
  • Mid have won the last 2 matches 2-1 and in both matches were comfortable at 2-0 until 90th minute Silkeborg goals.
  • This is top v bottom in the Danish Superliga table.

Mid

  • An 11 point gap over 2nd is very impressive.
  • It helps when you have lost only 3 matches and drawn 3 matches all season.
  • 12 consecutive home wins.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 67% over 2.5 goals at home
  • No 0-0
  • Consistent scoring of late, scoring 2-2-2-2-0-3-1-3-2-3-3-2
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 home matches.
  • Only conceded 1 goal at home in the first half. 29 goals scored
  • Scored first in 11 of 12 homes

Silkeborg

  • Conceded in their last 20 matches and last 10 away
  • Unbeaten in 3 away scoring 2-4-2 against 4th, 6th and 8th.
  • Prior to those 3matches we have 7 consecutive away defeats.
  • Have been really tight 0-0 and 1-0 loss v Copenhagen this season.1-2 twice with Mid earlier in the season too
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in their last 15 matches.
  • Only 17 goals scored away, 5 in the first half.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I am not sure we will see a DRT here as Mid tend to score first at home. Having only conceded 1 goal in the first half at home, they could strike early. Lay the 0-0 halftime score perhaps?
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Do note that Silkeborg have been extremely competitive this season against 1st and 2nd with 2 2-1 defeats, a 1-0 defeat and a 0-0 so this may not be the foregone conclusion the odds are anticipating. Mid though are very consistent scorers.
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19:00 UK Troyes v Ajaccio - 1.57 home

Standout Stats

  • Only 1 French Ligue 2 head to head saw Ajaccio win 2-1  in November after conceding first.
  • This is 1st v 15th . Troyes are 10 points clear at the top. Ajaccio are 4 points clear of relegation.

Troyes

  • 3 match winning streak
  • No defeat in 12 at home and 5 overall
  • Scored in their last 10 at home
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 14 clean sheets in their last 20 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 0-1 wins.
  • Scored 2 goals in each of 4 of their last 5 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • All clean sheets so far at home v 13th and lower.
  • Only 2 0-0's at home

Ajaccio

  • No win in 4 away matches.
  • Only 2 wins in their last 14 matches
  • Only 2 away wins v 2nd and 18th. 2nd are AFC Ajaccio so this is a derby

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Ajaccio won at home earlier in the season. Troyes have a 10 point gap at the top and 21 possible points remaining , and Ajaccio need points too.
  • Troyes are the form side with no defeat in 12 at home, and scoring 2 goals regularly at home. Can we trust them today? They lost to Ajaccio after taking the lead last time.  I think we can so will lay Ajaccio if they score first.
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19:30 UK Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia M'gladbach - 2.05 away

Standout Stats

  • 2 frankfurt wins in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 8th v 3rd. Frankfurt are 8 points clear of the relegation zone and Mgladbach are 7 points shy of 2nd spot with Bayer Leverkusen on 2 points behind them in 4th spot
  • There are 6 matches remaining and thus an available 18 points for both sides so plenty to play for. Frankfurt are perilously close to the relegation spots if results do not go their way, despite being 8th in the league.

Frankfurt

  • No defeat in 8 at home
  • Scored 2-4-2 in their last 3 matches at home. 2-2 latest saw them lost a 2-0 lead.
  • Their last 6 defeats have all come away.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 3 home defeats v 1st, 6th and 17th, latterly a 4-5 humdinger.
  • 0-4 at home to 1st, 1-1 v 2nd and playing 3rd today .
  • No 0-0 this season.
  • 20 of 31 home goals scored 2nd half.

Mgladbach

  • 4 match winning streak, 2 away
  • No defeat in 8 matches
  • 6 wins and 2 draws in those 8 matches.
  • 2-2-2-2-4-3 scored in their last 6 matches. This includes an away win v Bayern Munich
  • Losses away v 2nd,5th, 6th and 10th, 3 of those were 1-0.
  • Only 2 wins away v top 14.
  • Only 2 0-0's away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Mgladbach's impressive away win v Bayern Munich catches the eye, as does the fact that they have scored 2+ goals in their last 6 matches. They are clearly in excellent form, but away from home, have only 2 wins away to top 14 sides. This is a concern.
  • I do expect Mgladbach to score today so that is an angle in, however you want to play it. With Frankfurt joining Mgladbach in scoring 2+ goals recently, we could see both sides score. Frankfurt's record v the top 2 suggests that they may be competitive today without actually winning so lay them if they lead, particularly late on.
  • With a potential for goals, lay the 0-0 halftime score as late as you can.
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19:30 UK Nantes v Marseille - 2.1 away

Standout Stats

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in the last 2 head to heads at Nantes.
  • This is 11th v 4th in the French Ligue 1

Nantes

  • Scored and conceded in their last 2 matches at home.
  • Only 5 wins in 19 matches.
  • Yet to beat the top 5 at home, with a 1-1 draw with PSG, 0-1 loss to Monaco and 0-0 v St Etienne. So tough to beat.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (38% of matches)

Marseille

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches came away
  • Not beaten any top 10 away this season and are playing 11th today.
  • Unbeaten v 12th and lower so where do Nantes fit in?
  • No away 0-0
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away (50%)
  • 19 of 40 away goals scored 2nd half.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • 6 matches remain and Marseille can still grab 3rd spot from Monaco. Nantes are on 40 points and 3rd bottom is 35 points so they are not clear of trouble by any stretch.
  • This makes this likely to be a tough fought contest (as all remaining 6 matches will be for those with something to play for)
  • Nantes are tight v top 5 sides  and that could continue.I will back 0-0 pre match and hope this is tight first half and Marseille record another 0-0 at halftime as they do in 50% of their matches away.
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19:45 UK Norwich v Middlesbrough - 2.15 home

Standout Stats

  • This is 2nd v 4th in the Championship and a real potential title decider. In games of this import, I will not trade. Form is thrown out of the window. Luck will play a huge part in what might be the most important game of the season for these 2 sides.
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19:45 UK Levante v Espanyol - 2.7 home

Standout Stats

  • Levante, draw, Espanyol in head to heads sheds no new light onto this contest where the favourite is priced at 2.7 - the bookies are saying " we haven't got a clue!"
  • This is 18th v 8th in La Liga. With Levante on 28 points, and 14th place on 31 points, the home side can still survive in La Liga but will need a couple of consecutive wins.
  • Espanyol are safe, but with 6th place 10 points higher, it seems Espanyol will not go down and have little to play for.

Levante

  • No draw in 13 matches and in 6 at home
  • Conceded in all those matches.
  • 2 match home losing streak
  • 4 losses in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 3 losses in 11 home matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 4 2-0 scorelines at halftime in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 wins at home to top 13, v Valencia and Malaga.  Failed to score at home v 6 of the top 11
  • Only 1 0-0 at home
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home (53%)
  • Opponents have scored first in 12 of 15 home matches.

Espanyol

  • No defeat in 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
  • No draw away v 15th and higher.
  • Wins away v 6th, 7th, 11th.
  • Draws away v bottom 4, 2 of those were 0-0
  • Unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower
  • Scored 10 goals in the last 1/4 hour of away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Much to play for so context may supercede form.
  • Levante have plenty to play for so expect a rear-guard action from them today. Another match I may back 0-0 pre match and hope this is 0-0 til halftime. Espanyol have been keeping clean sheets lately and Levante will want to keep it tight early on.
  • Lay the late 0-0. Levante are likely to concede at some stage. Only 4 clean sheets all season.
  • Lay any late draw. Espanyol keep avoiding draws.
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19:45 UK Athlone v Cabinteely FC - 1.33 home

Standout Stats

  • No head to heads suggests that Cabinteely are newcomers to the First Division in Ireland.
  • This is 3rd v 7th in the Irish First Division.
  • Little to go on of course after only 6 matches.
  • Athlone have lost their last 2 matches 1-0 so will be seeking to end this sequence tonight. 4-0 and 0-1 so far at home.
  • Cabinteely are yet to draw this season. They have lost 4 of their 6 matches this season, failing to score in 2-0, 1-0, 2-0, 1-0 defeats.
  • Cabinteely have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This could be a tight win for the home side. I do expect them not to record a 3rd consecutive 1-0 defeat tonight against a side failing to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.  If Cabinteely score first, consider laying them , and if 0-1 is high enough odds, back the 0-1 as insurance given this recent Athlone 1-0 losing sequence.
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