The return of league football today and throughout the weekend.
FRENCH LIGUE 1
18:00 - Nice v Toulouse - 2.28 Nice
- 5 losses since 28th October 2018 came away from home.
- 4 consecutive home wins.
- Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches since 5th October 2018.
- No defeat in 8 at home.
- 9 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
- 76% of home matches have been 0-0 or 1-0 at halftime.
- Unbeaten at home v 6th-16th.
- 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
- 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
- Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches. 3 consecutive away losses.
- Scored in their last 7 away.
- Loss, Win, Loss, Loss, Win, Draw, Draw away v the top 10.
- Scored 2 goals only once there.
- Given the strong under 2.5 goals record for Nice, dare we back the 0-0 pre match and cash out as late as possible. I would tentatively favour Nice today, unbeaten at home v 6th-16th and playing a Toulouse side scoring 2 goals only once away v the top 10.
19:45 - Lille v Monaco - 2.28 Lille
- 7 wins and a draw last 9 matches.
- 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 3 wins and a draw last 4 at home.
- 6 0-0's at halftime at home (43%).
- 8 wins and a 0-0 home and away v 16th and lower.
- Unbeaten in 6.
- 2 consecutive score draws.
- 2 consecutive 2-2's away.
- Only 5 clean sheets.
- Not beaten a top 13 side away.
- 11 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- Although Monaco are unbeaten in 6, they have not beaten a top 13 side away so I will stick with that and expect Monaco not to win. With Lille keeping clean sheets, lay Monaco if Monaco score first.
19:30 - Mgladbach v Freiburg - 1.62 Mgladbach
- I have a concern with Mgladbach at home. Their invincibility at home has ended. 3 consecutive home defeats. But we need a context.
- No draw in 12 at home, they have now conceded 2+ goals in their last 3 at home.
- 6 0-0's at halftime at home (50%).
- Mgladbach may return to winning ways. They have 100% wins v 11th and lower at home - 5 clean sheets, 2+ goals scored.
- 21 of 26 goals scored at home by Mgladbach came 2nd half.
- 2 recent Freiburg wins came at home.
- Only 5 clean sheets for Freiburg.
- 3 losses and a 1-1 away for Freiburg v 6th and higher.
- Mgladbach's home solidity ended recently as they met higher positioned sides but on form, they should revert to a win, and 2+ goals. 100% wins v 11th and lower and meet 12th today. That is how I will enter this match. Remember that Mgladbach, if back to winning ways, tended towards 0-0 halftime, 2+ goals 2nd half.
ITALIAN SERIA A
19:30 - Cagliari v Fiorentina - 2.38 Fiorentina
- A market which is on the cusp of suggesting a tough to call match.
- 2 consecutive home wins for Cagliari amongst 5 losses.
- Only 5 clean sheets all season though.
- Cagliari have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
- Cagliari meet 10th today. They have only 1 home win v the top 9, with 0-0's at home v 7th and 9th.
- 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
- Only 2 home losses for Cagliari came v 2nd and 6th 0-1's.
- Unbeaten at home v 7th and lower.
- Only 3 losses for Fiorentina since 21st October 2018 but 12 draws.
- Fiorentina are unbeaten away v 9th and lower and meet 14th today.
- 6 draws in 8 matches there.
- So, we have a Cagliari side unbeaten v 7th and lower, meeting a Fiorentina unbeaten v 9th and lower. So tough to call. With so many draws for Fiorentina, lay the first team to score?
SPANISH LA LIGA
20:00 - Real Sociedad v Levante - 1.97 Sociedad
- Only 2 losses in 10 for Real did come within their last 2 matches.
- 3 wins, a draw and a loss for Real at home recently.
- Real are 9th and have lost only 1 in 8 at home v 11th and lower.
- 1-3 win v Levante earlier this season.
- Levante have lost their last 3 matches. Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
- 5 losses in 6 away.
- Levante have conceded in their last 10 away.
- v top 10 away, Levante have beaten 3rd, 4th and 8th, lost to 2nd, 5th and 6th.