Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

The return of league football today and throughout the weekend.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

18:00 - Nice v Toulouse - 2.28 Nice

Nice (9th)

  • 5 losses since 28th October 2018 came away from home.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches since 5th October 2018.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • 9 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • 76% of home matches have been 0-0 or 1-0 at halftime.
  • Unbeaten at home v 6th-16th.
  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Toulouse (15th)

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches. 3 consecutive away losses.
  • Scored in their last 7 away.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Loss, Win, Draw, Draw away v the top 10.
  • Scored 2 goals only once there.

Conclusions

  • Given the strong under 2.5 goals record for Nice, dare we back the 0-0 pre match and cash out as late as possible. I would tentatively favour Nice today, unbeaten at home v 6th-16th and playing a Toulouse side scoring 2 goals only once away v the top 10.

19:45 - Lille v Monaco - 2.28 Lille

Lille (2nd)

  • 7 wins and a draw last 9 matches.
  • 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (43%).
  • 8 wins and a 0-0 home and away v 16th and lower.

Monaco (17th)

  • Unbeaten in 6.
  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • 2 consecutive 2-2's away.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Not beaten a top 13 side away.
  • 11 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Although Monaco are unbeaten in 6, they have not beaten a top 13 side away so I will stick with that and expect Monaco not to win. With Lille keeping clean sheets, lay Monaco if Monaco score first.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Mgladbach v Freiburg - 1.62 Mgladbach

  • I have a concern with Mgladbach at home. Their invincibility at home has ended. 3 consecutive home defeats. But we need a context.
  • No draw in 12  at home, they have now conceded 2+ goals in their last 3 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (50%).
  • Mgladbach may return to winning ways. They have 100% wins v 11th and lower at home - 5 clean sheets, 2+ goals scored.
  • 21 of 26 goals scored at home by Mgladbach came 2nd half.
  • 2 recent Freiburg wins came at home.
  • Only 5 clean sheets for Freiburg.
  • 3 losses and a 1-1 away for Freiburg v 6th and higher.
  • Mgladbach's home solidity ended recently as they met higher positioned sides but on form, they should revert to a win, and 2+ goals. 100% wins v 11th and lower and meet 12th today. That is how I will enter this match. Remember that Mgladbach, if back to winning ways, tended towards 0-0 halftime, 2+ goals 2nd half.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:30 - Cagliari v Fiorentina - 2.38 Fiorentina

  • A market which is on the cusp of suggesting a tough to call match.
  • 2 consecutive home wins for Cagliari amongst 5 losses.
  • Only 5 clean sheets all season though.
  • Cagliari have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • Cagliari meet 10th today. They have only 1 home win v the top 9, with 0-0's at home v 7th and 9th.
  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • Only 2 home losses for Cagliari came v 2nd and 6th 0-1's.
  • Unbeaten at home v 7th and lower.
  • Only 3 losses for Fiorentina since 21st October 2018 but 12 draws.
  • Fiorentina are unbeaten away v 9th and lower and meet 14th today.
  • 6 draws in 8 matches there.
  • So, we have a Cagliari side unbeaten v 7th and lower, meeting a Fiorentina unbeaten v 9th and lower. So tough to call. With so many draws for Fiorentina, lay the first team to score?

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Real Sociedad v Levante - 1.97 Sociedad

  • Only 2 losses in 10 for Real did come within their last 2 matches.
  • 3 wins, a draw and a loss for Real at home recently.
  • Real are 9th and have lost only 1 in 8 at home v 11th and lower.
  • 1-3 win v Levante earlier this season.
  • Levante have lost their last 3 matches. Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • 5 losses in 6 away.
  • Levante have conceded in their last 10 away.
  • v top 10 away, Levante have beaten 3rd, 4th and 8th, lost to 2nd, 5th and 6th.