Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook. Officially no Telegram today. I have to take 2 nights off in the week in lieu of working weekends, and Monday is an obvious choice as is Friday. Don't forget to check out the stats spreadsheets at DRT Facebook page with a bias towards goals. If you watched the accompanying video yesterday you'd have seen the Willem II and Ajax matches indicated for goals - well they saw 5 and 4 goals in total respectively. A good sign!

FRENCH LIGUE 1

20:00 - Montpellier v Monaco - 1.83 Monaco

Montpellier - 8th

  • No win in 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Conceded last 7 and last 10 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 6. It did come v 1st in the league Lyon.

Monaco - 4th

  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 2 losses and 2 wins away.
  • Failed to score in only match.
  • Scored in their last 6 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 5/5 away defeats came v the top 11.

Conclusions

  • Monaco's away defeats v the top 11 is a concern for an odds on favourite v 8th.
  • Monaco could score today. Montpellier are poor v the top 6.
  • Messy form.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Union Berlin v Bayer Leverkusen - 2.15 Leverkusen

Union Berlin - 5th

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 2 draws, 2 wins, and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Both teams scored in 12 matches this season.
  • Scored in every match.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • Scored in their last 15 and last 8 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v the top 10, 6 score draws, and a win though!
  • Scored 6 goals at home in the first 15 minutes.

Bayer Leverkusen - 3rd

  • 2 losses and a draw last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 loss away came last match.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 6 and last 7 away matches.
  • 5 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not played the top 5 away.

Conclusions

  • Union Berlin are in excellent form but tend to allow other teams to score so watch that pattern. They are unbeaten at home in 7 matches and unbeaten v the top 10 but score draws are a concern. If that continues, Union Berlin may not be able to hold on to a lead.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Slight gap in form. Leverkusen not met the top 5 away yet.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Lazio v Roma - 2.30 Roma

  • Watching brief in this Roman Derby. Formlines can be thrown out of the window. In-play stats.

BELGIAN JULIPER LEAGUE

19:45 - Eupen v Anderlecht - 1.95 Anderlecht

Eupen - 13th

  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches with just one win.
  • Only 2 home wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 8 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played 4th-10th at home.
  • 13/18 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Anderlecht - 4th

  • 2 consecutive away defeats part of a run of 5 without a win.
  • Those defeats were 1-0.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away notably all defeats have come away v the top 7.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • 8 goals conceded away came last 15 minutes of matches.

Conclusions

  • Score draw worst case for Anderlecht if their pattern of only losing away to the top 7 continues today. They do concede away and that is a concern, making it doubly difficult to get the win.
  • If Eupen score first, lay them but cover the 1-0 in case Anderlecht decide to lose a 3rd consecutive away match 1-0.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

17:45 - Dordrecht v Volendam - 1.46 Volendam

Dordrecht - bottom

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • 4 defeats and a win last 5 at home.
  • No draw in 11 matches.
  • Conceded last 6 at home.
  • Not beaten the top 7 at home (failed to score in 3 matches).
  • 7-1 loss v Volendam last time these 2 met.

Volendam - 6th

  • 2 losses and a win last 3 matches.
  • 3/3 wins v the bottom 3, scoring 6-6-7 goals.

Conclusions

  • 6 goals on average for Volendam v the bottom 3 in 3 matches. Quite something. With Volendam scoring 7 v Dordrecht earlier this season, I would expect a defensive reaction from Dordrecht. But I cannot see them win, they have failed to score in the 3 matches they played at home v the top 7.

17:45 - Excelsior v Eindhoven - 2.03 Excelsior

Excelsior - 15th

  • 6 consecutive defeats.
  • 3 wins and 3 losses at home.
  • Conceded in their last 8 and last 4 at home.
  • No draw in 9 and in 9 at home.
  • 100% defeats at home v the top 8.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • 7 goals conceded at home came last 15 mins of away matches.

Eindhoven - 9th

  • Win and 3 draws away last 4 matches.
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower.
  • 5/7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • With Eindhoven unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower, and Excelsior's 100% defeats at home v the top 9, the Challenge Table at least is with the away side.
  • Excelsior are late conceders of goals. Remember that if they are leading or drawing 75th minute.

17:45 - Roda v Graafschap - 2.04 Graafschap

Roda - 10th

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss came last home match.
  • Conceded in their last 3 at home.
  • 4-0 loss v Graafschap earlier this season but have met the top 5 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 11 side.

De Graafschap - 3rd

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches came last away match.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 5 wins and a loss away v 12th and lower.
  • 8 goals scored away last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • For me these 2 have good form lines. Only 1 home loss for Roda came last match. BUT they are yet to beat the top 11. Does that clinch it for De Graafschap's 5 wins v 12th and lower away.

20:00 - Go Ahead Eagles v MVV Maastricht - 1.59 Go Ahead Eagles

Go Ahead Eagles - 7th

  • 4 wins and a 0-0 last 5 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 6 clean sheets in 7 matches at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home and 3 at fulltime.
  • 3 home defeats came v 11th, 13th and 18th.
  • 0-2 win v MVV Maastricht earlier this season.
  • 5 goals scored at home last 15 minutes of home matches.

MVV Maastricht - 17th

  • 2 wins in 3 matches but only 4 wins all season.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Did beat 6th and 8th away from home.
  • 12/17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Go Ahead won the head to head earlier this season. Intriguingly MVV beat 6th and 8th away and meet 7th today. Coincidence?
  • With Go Ahead keeping clean sheets, this is a plus for me as they could arguably keep MVV to 1 goal max (note that if MVV score first).

20:00 - Helmond Sport v Den Bosch - 2.01 Helmond Sport

Helmond Sport - 14th

  • Both teams scored 2 goals in each of the last 4 matches, with Helmond unbeaten.
  • Conceded 2 goals last 2 home matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v teams below them in the league.

Den Bosch - 19th

  • No win in 15 and in 9 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 9 and last 4 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not met 13th and lower away.
  • 1-2 loss v Helmond last time these 2 met.

Conclusions

  • I would favour Helmond today but there is a gap in form away for Den Bosch who are yet to meet 13th and lower away. They did lose to Helmond earlier this season.
  • With only 2 clean sheets Helmond may need 2 goals yet again in order to get a result.

20:00 - Jong AZ v Almere City - 1.64 Almere City

Jong AZ - 18th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
  • No win in 7 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 9 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2-0 loss to Almere earlier this season.
  • Sole win was a 7-3 v 3rd but looks totally anomalous.
  • 11/16 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Almere City - 2nd

  • Only one defeat.
  • 4 wins and a 0-0 last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 away matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 6 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • The market looks right here. Almere are in excellent form, do score and concede away but should not lose.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. If Almere continue to score their 2 goals away, that could be enough today.