Arsenal and Everton flexed their muscles yesterday. Liverpool, Wigan, Roma, Newcastle and Bayer Leverkusen are amongst the recognisable names on friendly duty today. These matches are not really researchable, suffice to say that when you see an english club play a friendly with an Irish club (Shamrock Rovers v Burnley for instance today), the English Clubs invariably win. That is just something I have noticed in pre-seasons past.
If you followed my pre-tournament tips for Wimbledon, then you'd be in fine fettle as both Marin Cilic and Roger Federer survive to play today. Trade out for a guaranteed profit if you want.
17:00 - Linfield v Celtic - 1.12 Celtic
- This is a first leg Champions League match.
- Linfield are a Northern Irish side.
- In a recent friendly with Hearts, Linfield lost 1-4.
- That is the expectation for tonight.
- React if 0-0 after 20 minutes by backing 0-3 and any other away score.
- We should see at least a goal before halftime.
17:00 - AGF v Horsens - 1.67 AGF
- In the last 6 head to heads, both teams have scored.
- 1-5 and 1-3 AGF in the last 2 head to heads.
- This is the beginning of the Danish Superliga.
- We have nothing to go on bar the head to heads which relay to me laying Horsens if Horsens score first.
19:45 - St Patricks v Derry - 2.4 Derry
- 0-2 Derry and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.
- This is 11th v 5th in the Irish Premier Division.
- Only 3 wins.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Both teams have scored in 8 of the last 11 matches with St Pats winning only one match.
- 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
- No 0-0.
- v top 8 at home, 6 losses and a single win.
- Only 2 losses in 13 matches came within their last 3 matches.
- No win in 7 away matches saw 5 draws sandwiched between 2 defeats.
- Only 1 away loss v 1st and 3rd.
- Expect at least 2 goals in total.
- I would expect Derry City not to lose i.e. I cannot discount the draw and will therefore lay any St Pats lead during this match.
20:00 - Finn Harps v Bohemians - 2.78 Finn Harps
- Recently the home team has tended to be favoured and the home team has not conceded last 4 head to heads.
- This is 8th v 7th in the Irish Premier Division.
- Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- No draw in 7 at home.
- Conceded in their last 9 at home.
- No home 0-0.
- Scored and conceded at home without losing v 6th, 9th, 10th, 11th.
- Only 5 clean sheets.
- 3 consecutive away wins.
- No draw in 9 away.
- Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- No 0-0 away.
- Win, loss, win, win, win away v 6th and lower.
- No wonder the market shrugs its shoulders. We can make a cogent argument for both sides not losing today. Finn Harps solid at home v 6th and lower, Bohemians solid away v 6th and lower.
- I would lay any late 0-0 here.
- I would note both sides tend to avoid the draw so lay any late draw.
I hope you have enjoyed this journey through a Grand Slam from early rounds to semi-finals. With Grand Slams, we make the vast majority of our profits early rounds. We saw yesterday with the ladies that semi-final matches are unreadable. That said, I will have a look at today's matches and remind you that I selected Marin Cilic and Roger Federer pre-tournament in the Outright Winners market. So allow me a quick 'ker ching'.
Sam Querrey v Marin Cilic - 1.34 Cilic
- 27th v 8th. I have already backed Cilic pre-tournament as I said so can lay off here for a guaranteed profit.
- The last time these 2 met in 2015, we saw 2 tie breakers and a win for Cilic.
- 4-5-5-5 setters for Querrey and latterly he met a crocked Murray, hence winning the last 2 sets 6-1 6-1 so I dare say that he is lucky to be here.
- Cilic has only dropped sets in his encounter with Muller which was a great profit maker for us as Gilles took a 2-0 sets lead (I advocated laying Cilic given Muller#s superb grass court form).
- The last time these 2 met at Wimbledon was 2012, and we saw a 5 setter.
- I am on Cilic's side today, basically having backed him pre-tournament and will seek to back him at higher odds at some stage in this match if Querrey offers some resistance.
Roger Federer v Tomas Berdych - 1.14 Roger
- The 2nd of my pre-tournament picks, old Roger the Dodger means I can guarantee a profit laying him at 1.14 and sit back and enjoy the Final with my Pimms, Barley Water and Strawberries.
- This is 4th v 13th.
- 7-0 Roger in the last 7 head to heads and in Australia (another Grand Slam) Roger won in 3 sets.
- Berdych is very lucky to be here as Djokovic retired last round. Berdych record v the elite is poor. His beating of Thiem is the highlight of his run in. It does tell me that Berdych will not be winning 3-0 today if he goes 1-0 or 2-0 sets up.