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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, April 14, 2017

The Wigan match was one of a crop of matches where one team is the better team but has the knotted hankies on their heads already, dreaming of Skegness in the Summer. The other needs points. And Wigan got the needed points with a Desmond ending winner, exactly as they did v Rotherham. Fight beat Form. We get these matches now where I highlight that 'on form' teams should not lose, but based on need, we might get a Crotone 2-1 v Inter!
2-2 as a trading vehicle worked in the Celta match IF you traded out at 2-1. Today the English Championship dominates. I have researched it as best I can but there are a lot of 'desperation stakes' matches.
Do you guys want a live chat tomorrow and Sunday or are you too busy watching the Eastenders Easter Special which sees the surprise return of Wicksy to the Square etc.etc.etc. whilst munching chocolate eggs? Let me know.

15:00 - Sheff Wed v Cardiff - 1.81 Sheff

  • 1-1 in the last head to head.
  • This is 6th v 14th in the English Championship.

Sheff Wed 100% stats

  • No home match with 4 goals exactly.

Sheff Wed other stats

  • Only 1 clean sheet in 11 matches.
  • Conceded last 6 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Scored in all bar 1 match v teams below them in the league.
  • 11 goals scored in the last 15 mins at home.

Cardiff City other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches.
  • Beat 5th 0-2, drew 2-2 with 7th and beat 8th 3-4 away so can surprise!
  • Only 3 clean sheets away though.

Conclusions

  • Angles? Expect Sheff Wed to score if they haven't scored in good time in this match.
  • No other strong angles. Note Cardiff were solid away v 5th-8th and play 6th today.

15:00 - Brentford v Derby - 2.56 Derby

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 12th v 8th in the English Championship. Note the market cannot split the teams and this usually signals a tough match to research.

Brentford other stats

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home 2-0 wins.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 17 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at home.
  • Clean sheets at home v 9th, 10th and 11th and play 8th today. Did lose at home to 7th though.
  • 14 of 21 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Derby County 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.

Derby County other stats

  • A draw and 3 consecutive wins last 4 matches.
  • 1-0 or 0-0 at halftime in 13 away matches.
  • Only 1 win v top 13 away.

Conclusions

  • Another toughie. I am only researching as it is rare to see the Championship on a Friday.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Both sides are in good very recent form.
  • Lay any late 0-0. If pushed, I would give a slight nod towards Brentford as Derby have only the 1 win away v top 13 sides.

15:00 - Norwich v Fulham - 2.46 Norwich

  • 2-2 the last time these 2 teams met.
  • This is 10th v 7th in the English Championship.

Norwich 100% stats

  • All defeats at home v teams above them in the league.

Norwich other stats

  • Scored in their last 13 at home.
  • No defeat in 9 at home.
  • 2-1-7-2-0-3-1 goals scored at home v teams above them in the league.
  • 15 of 19 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Led at halftime in 15 of 20 home matches.

Fulham other stats

  • 2-2-3-1-2 goals scored in their last 5 away matches.

Conclusions

  • I could see Fulham continue their excellent scoring run away - 2 goals even? let that be an angle if Norwich score first. Remember all defeats Norwich had at home came v teams above them in the league.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score.

15:00 - Bristol City v QPR - 2 Bristol City

  • 2 consecutive 1-0 QPR wins in head to heads.
  • This is 21st v 16th in the English Championship.

Bristol City 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v 15th and lower.

Bristol City other stats

  • 2 draws and 2 wins in their last 4 home matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 7 home matches.
  • 21 of 28 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 0-1 and 0-0 in 70% of home matches at home.

QPR 100% stats

  • Have not scored or conceded more than 1 goal away v bottom 6.

QPR other stats

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • 2 consecutive 1-0 away defeats.
  • 0-0-0 scored last 3 away.
  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • 15 scorelines away have been either 1-0 or 0-0 at halftime.
  • 1-0 defeats away v 3rd bottom and bottom.
  • 15 of 20 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Bristol City, on form, should not lose in what could be a tight match. QPR though are not conceding more than 2 goals v bottom 6 away nor are they scoring 2 goals or more away.
  • Strong 2nd half goals stats. So if 0-0 at halftime I would expect that to end 2nd half.

15:00 - Huddersfield v Preston - 1.81 Huddersfield

  • 2 consecutive Preston wins in head to heads saw both teams score.
  • Huddersfield's goal is to maintain a play-off position as it seems 2nd spot is beyond them - they do have a game in hand over Newcastle so we never know!
  • While a play-off position is mathematically possible, Preston will be giving their all.

Huddersfield 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • No home draw v top 17 teams.

Huddersfield other stats

  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • All draws this season were 1-1.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime at home (45%).
  • Have beaten 8th-17th at home inclusive.

Preston 100% stats

  • Not beaten a team above them in the league away.

Preston other stats

  • A strange pattern. Unbeaten in 5, lose, unbeaten in 5, lose, unbeaten in 5, lose. If that continues today, they will be unbeaten!
  • No win in 8 away.
  • In 4 of 5 away matches v top 7m Preston conceded 2 or 3 goals.

Conclusions

  • Preston are solid at home v the top 4 but are yet to beat a team above them in the league away. They could even concede 2/3 as is the habit away.
  • Lay any late draw as Huddersfield keep avoiding home draws v top 17.Slight favour to Huddersfield. I would lay Preston if Preston scored first.

15:00 - Nottm Forest v Blackburn - 2.28 Forest

  • 2-1 Blackburn in the last head to head.
  • This is 19th v 22nd in the English Championship.Forest have a 5 point gap above the relegation places, one of which is occupied by Blackburn.
  • As we are at 'that' part of the season. I will do basic research as this might be the proverbial 'relegation six pointer'.
  • Forest have scored in their last 8 home matches. They have only 6 clean sheets all season which suggests a possible both teams to score bet.
  • No 0-0 at home for Forest and away for Blackburn so do not expect a 0-0.
  • Forest have all home wins v 18th and lower. Blackburn have not beaten any team away v 9th and lower.
  • Both sides have very strong 2nd half scoring stats.
  • On form Blackburn may struggle to win given how strong Forest are v bottom sides (100% record).

15:00 - Rotherham v Birmingham - 2.02 Birmingham

  • 4-2 Birmingham the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 24th v 18th in the English Championship. Rotherham are relegated. Birmingham are not safe.
  • Again no full research here.
  • 10 consecutive defeats for Rotherham, 5 at home.
  • Rotherham have conceded in each of their last 21 matches.
  • Rotherham have only 1 home defeat in 6 matches v 15th and lower! Interesting!
  • NO 0-0 this season for Rotherham.
  • 18 goals conceded by Rotherham in the last 1/2 hour of home matches.
  • Only 2 wins for Birmingham since 17th December 2016.
  • Birmingham have conceded in their last 16 matches away and scored and conceded last 5.
  • 1-1 draws away v bottom 3 for Birmingham.
  • This is not clear cut for Birmingham. Of course this depends on Rotherham's attitude. Rotherham have a solid record at home v 15th and lower.
  • I could see both teams score. Based on need, more than anything else, I would back Birmingham to equalise if going behind.

17:00 - Wolves v Brighton - 2.32 Brighton

  • 1-0 Brighton earlier this season.
  • This is 15th v 1st in the English Championship.

Wolves 100% stats

  • Lost 0-1 at home v 2nd.

Wolves other stats

  • 5 wins ended with a loss last match.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home win v top 10.
  • 17 of 24 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Brighton other stats

  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • No draw in 10 matches.
  • 12 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only l defeat home and away v 13th and lower.
  • 19 of 25 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • It may be 0-0 at halftime. Brighton, probability wise, are unlikely to lose though. I would not discount a 0-1.
  • Both sides have a strong 2nd half goals record so any 0-0 for the 2nd half should be opposed.

19:00 - Heracles v AZ Alkmaar - 2.16 AZ

  • 6 consecutive AZ wins in head to heads scoring 3-3-6-5 in the last 4.
  • This is 9th v 6th in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Heracles 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.

Heracles other stats

  • Only 1 draw since 6th November 2016.
  • 3 consecutive home wins ended with a 0-1 v Vitesse.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 win at home v top 7 teams.
  • 18 of 27 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

AZ Alkmaar 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.

AZ Alkmaar other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 9 away matches.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v teams below them in the league.
  • 16 of 22 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • On form, AZ do not tend to lose to teams below them in the league. So I would lay Heracles if Heracles score first despite recent home form being good.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring for both sides so lay 0-0 in the halftime score.

19:00 - Almere City v Jong Utrecht - 1.38 Almere

  • 1-1 in the last head to head.
  • This is 8th v 18th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.
  • 5 matches remain this season. Jong Utrecht seem to be the only member of the bottom 3 capable of staving off relegation. Almere still have plenty to play for, so tight is it at the top.

Almere City 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten at home outside of the top 4.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower.

Almere City other stats

  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 8 of their last 9 matches.

Jong Utrecht 100% stats

  • Conceded in all away matches.
  • Not beaten any top 7 side away.

Jong Utrecht other stats

  • 2 consecutive home wins and that may be where they pick up the points.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Beat 10th away recently. Signs of hope? The only away win though.

Conclusions

  • Another match where form meets fight. On form Almere should score 2 goals at least again today and beat Jong Utrecht.
  • Jong though are fighting, as advertised in 2 consecutive home wins and recording their solitary away win back in February.
  • Remember Jong have conceded in every away match so that is a ready angle for any lead they might have during the match.

19:45 - Burton v Ipswich - 2.22 Burton

  • 2-0  Ipswich in an earlier head to head.
  • This is 20th v 17th in the Championship.
  • 5 and 9 points respectively above the relegation zone. Another relegation six pointer of sorts.
  • A tough match to research as the form is bitty from both of these sides.
  • But Burton are unbeaten at home v 13th - 19th inclusive and Ipswich have not beaten any side 12th - 22nd away from home.
  • Both teams scored in Ipswich's last 5 away matches.
  • A match not to dwell on. IF pushed I would note the latter 2 points and lay Ipswich if Ipswich scored first.

19:45 - Newcastle v Leeds - 1.61 Newcastle

  • 0-2 Newcastle in the last head to head.
  • This is 2nd v 5th in the English Championship.

Newcastle 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.
  • No draw at home v top 15.

Newcastle other stats

  • Failed to score in only 7 matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Losses v 3rd, 6th and 7th at home so vulnerable.

Leeds 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • Lost away v all top 4.

Leeds other stats

  • Lost last 2 away.
  • Conceded in their last 13 away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Newcastle are highly likely to score so note that if Leeds score.
  • Lay any late draw.
  • The only 3 angles.

19:45 - Angers v PSG - 1.31 PSG

  • Post Champions League for PSG.
  • PSG have won the last 2 head to heads, albeit at home.
  • This is 12th v 2nd in the French Ligue 1. Angers are 8 points clear of relegation. PSG are 3 points shy of Monaco.

Angers 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 9 side at home.
  • 0-1 defeats at home to 1st and 3rd.

Angers other stats

  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins ended with a tight loss v Monaco.
  • Not scored 2 goals home or away v top 9 teams.

PSG 100% stats

  • No away draw.
  • 0-1 wins away v teams on either side of Angers.
  • No 0-0 away.

PSG other stats

  • 11 wins and 2 draws last 13 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 6 consecutive away wins.
  • 2 or more goals scored last 5 aways.
  • 11 of 15 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Watch out for a 0-1. Note Angers 0-1 v 1st and 3rd and PSG 0-1 wins v teams either side of Angers away.
  • Watch out too for post Champions League hangover.
  • Remove those 2 'watch outs' and on form PSG should be scoring 2 goals at least.
  • Lay any late draw.