Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A busy enough Friday with largely secondary leagues. I am sure there are some trading angles lurking. The Dutch Eerste Divisie is coming to an end (3 matches remain) and a hope that the teams are fully wound up, particularly the mid-table sides who have little to play for. Shorties List is at the DRT Facebook page.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Aston Villa v Leeds - 1.58 Aston Villa

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads.

Aston Villa (4th)

  • Back on track at home with 2 consecutive home wins. The wobbles have come away with 2 losses and a draw last 3 away matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (29%).
  • Only 2 home losses v 15th and 17th.

Leeds (14th)

  • Only 2 wins in 18 matches came at home.
  • No win in 9 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 6 away matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away (24%) and only 1 fulltime.
  • Only 1 away win v top 12.

Conclusions

  • Leeds are safe. Thankfully they do not need points as they are dire away recently. Against top 12 they are likely to concede 2 goals and with Villa back on track with 2 consecutive home wins, I am with the home side today.
  • We may see 0-0 at halftime, but not fulltime.
  • Lay Leeds if Leeds score first. Only 2 wins in 18 matches came at home.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Wolfsburg v Augsburg - 2.08 Wolfsburg

  • 1-2 and 2-1 Augsburg in the last 2 head to heads.

Wolfsburg (15th)

  • Only 2 wins in 15 matches came away from home.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 4 losses in 5 home matches.
  • No win in 6 at home, conceding in those 6.
  • Unbeaten v 6th and lower at home but 7 score draws and 2 wins.
  • 15 of 21 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Augsburg (11th)

  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches.
  • Only 4 away wins v 5th, 12th, 13th, and 16th - scoring 3 goals in those latter 3 wins.

Conclusions

  • 2 teams in really poor recent form. Can they be relied upon?
  • Note Wolfsburg's score draws at home. Are they layable if they score first today?
  • Note too Augsburg's impressive 3 goal wins v 12th, 13th and 16th. Does this suggest, and reinforce, a lay of Wolfsburg if Wolfsburg score first.
  • Remember, dire recent form for both parties could make them as reliable as an Arthur Daley motor.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - Heracles v AZ - 1.45 AZ

  • 8 consecutive AZ wins in head to heads.

Heracles (11th)

  • A draw and 2 consecutive losses.
  • 3 consecutive home wins ended in defeat.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Scored in their last 15 home matches.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home (20%).
  • Scored and conceded in all matches v top 10 at home.
  • Did beat 2nd and 6th 2-1.
  • 18 of 27 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

AZ Alkmaar (3rd)

  • Only tend to lose to the top 4.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 and last 15 away.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away (20%).
  • 10 wins and a draw away v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Unlikely we see any surprises. AZ tend to score first away.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. 80% chance statistically.
  • Heracles do score and concede v top 10 at home so let's hope Heracles score first so we can take them on.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Girona v Betis - 2.22 Girona

  • 2-2 last head to head.

Girona (8th)

  • Last 6 losses all came away from home.
  • 6 wins and a draw last 7 at home.
  • Only failed to score 3 times since 29th September 2017.
  • Scored last 11 at home.
  • Loss, Draw, Win, Loss, Loss at home v top 7 teams.
  • 3-2-1-2 goals conceded at home v top 6.

Betis (5th)

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • 4 wins in 5 away.
  • No draw in 11 away.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Bitty form v top 10 away. All losses bar wins v 4th, and 7th.

Conclusions

  • For me, Betis slightly edge it. Why? Recent winning form and the fact Girona are conceding 3-2-1-2 goals at home v top 6.
  • The problem for me is that both teams have bitty form v top teams and on that basis the form is unreadable.

IRISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Derry v Waterford - 2.36 Derry

  • 2-1 Waterford in the last head to head.

Derry (4th after 8 matches)

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • No draw this season.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 matches.
  • 100% wins at home (3 matches).
  • 100% over 2.5 goals at home.
  • All wins v 6th and lower at home. yet to play the current top 4.

Waterford (2nd after 9 matches)

  • 7 wins and only 2 defeats came away v the top 2.
  • Scored 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
  • Away wins came v current 8th/9th.

Conclusions

  • Derry are yet to meet the current top sides so will be tested today. Only a handful of matches to work with. I would think Waterford will get a result today although there are gaps in the form for Derry (not played top 4 at home).

19:45 - Bray v Dundalk - 1.16 Dundalk

  • 1-0 Dundalk and 0-0 in the last head to head.

Bray (10th)

  • Sole point this season was a 0-0 v Dundalk first match of the season. All other defeats.
  • 4-5 goals conceded last 2 matches.

Dundalk (1st)

  • Unbeaten.
  • 6 wins and a draw last 7 matches.
  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Conceded in only their last match.
  • 3/3 clean sheets away.

Conclusions

  • Expectation for a win to nil for Dundalk today. Bray have scored in defeat to lesser sides so if they score first, back Dundalk at better odds.

19:45 - Cork City v St Patricks - 1.69 Cork

  • 4-2 St Pats and 2-3 Cork in the last 2 head to heads.

Cork City (3rd)

  • 2 losses came away.
  • 3 wins to nil at home.
  • Failed to score only once.

St Pats (6th)

  • 3 losses in the last 4 away matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in the last 6 matches.
  • Noticeably all losses have come v teams above them in the league and 3 came away.

Conclusions

  • The early season form sides are beating St Pats currently and that is expected to continue, although I'll repeat that it's a small sample of matches on which to base firm conclusions.
  • Cork are only losing to the current top 2 and away from home.

20:00 - Shamrock Rovers v Bohemians - 1.58 Shamrock

  • 1-2 and 3-1 Bohs the last 2 head to heads.

Shamrock Rovers (4th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • 3 consecutive home wins ended with a loss v Sligo 0-1.
  • Wins have come v teams below them in the league.

Bohs (8th)

  • 3 consecutive away defeats albeit v the current top 3.
  • Only 1 clean sheet came last match.
  • Failed to score last 3 away.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8.

Conclusions

  • Bohs have lost to the early season top 3 and play 4th today. They have also had trouble scoring so on that basis, lay Bohs if Bohs score first as conjuring up a 2nd goal may be trial?
  • Shamrock have been winning v the early season teams below them in the league.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

18:00 - Akhisar v Besiktas - 1.48 Besiktas

  • 0-0 last head to head.

Akhisar (11th)

  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches with only one win.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home (30%).
  • Not beaten top 3 but not played 2nd and 3rd at home.
  • Scored 2 goals only once at home v 9th.
  • 11 of 16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Besiktas (3rd)

  • 8 wins in the last 11 matches with only 1 defeat.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away (21%).
  • A lot less reliable away.v top 10, only 2 away wins v 5th and 8th.

Conclusions

  • Lay Akhisar if Akhisar score first, they have scored in their last 5 with only 1 win.
  • Besiktas are in the best recent form but do drop points away.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - Volendam v Waalwijk - 1.44 Volendam

  • 1-4 and 1-3 Volendam last 2 head to heads.
  • 3 matches remain this season.

Volendam (10th)

  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • 8 wins and 2 draws last 10 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime in the last 18 matches.
  • Scored in their last 12 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home (41%).
  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.
  • 2-4 goals scored at home v 14th and lower.

Waalwijk (19th)

  • 3 matches remain and all 3 must be won to give them a chance of staving off relegation.
  • Only 2 wins since 8th December 2017.
  • No win in 17 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 23 of 33 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market - if Waalwijk are to concede it seems they concede the vast majority away in the first half.
  • Volendam could concede but I would lay Waalwijk if Waalwijk scored first. Volendam should go unbeaten today.

19:00 - Jong AZ Alkmaar v MVV Maastricht - 2.26 MVV

  • 3-0 MVV last head to head.

Jong AZ (15th)

  • Only 3 draws.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 home matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home (24%).
  • Only 1 loss at home v top 8.scored 2+ goals in all of those matches.
  • 19 of 30 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

MVV (8th)

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away (23.5%).
  • v 13th and lower away, only 1 win.
  • 15 of 23 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, Jong AZ should score 2+ goals today as they tend to do v the top 8. MVV actually struggle v 13th and lower away from home so it is a case of the team lower in the league being the one on form for me.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring trends so I would take on any 0-0 at halftime in the 2nd half.

19:00 - Jong Ajax v Emmen - 1.61 Jong Ajax

  • 1-1, 0-0 and 2-2 in the last 3 head to heads.

Jong Ajax (1st)

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • In 12 of their last 17 matches, they scored 2+ goals and when they did so they tended to win.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home (12%).
  • v top 6, did lose to 4th and 5th at home and drew v 6th at home.
  • 14 of 18 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Emmen (7th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 7 away.
  • Scored in their last 8 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away (12%).
  • Unbeaten away v top 14 but losses started coming v 15th and lower away.

Conclusions

  • Emmen actually have a strong record v top 14 away and remain unbeaten. Do we have a potential surprise today?
  • Jong Ajax are scoring 2 goals regularly so Emmen would have to match that in order to remain unbeaten v top 14.
  • I think both teams will score today. I would back 2-2 pre match here and hope that acts as a trading angle during the match.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market given 88% of matches see goals before halftime.

19:00 - FC Oss v De Graafschap - 1.89 De Graaf

  • 2-1 Oss and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

FC Oss (14th)

  • Only 3 wins in 14 matches came at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of those 14 matches.
  • Beat 3rd at home but that was the only win home and away v top 7 teams.

De Graaf (4th)

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Scored in their last 13 away.
  • Unbeaten away v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Lay Oss if Oss score first. They tend to concede when they score and De Graaf have scored in their last 12 away matches.

19:00 - Dordrecht v Cambuur - 2.2 Cambuur

  • 2 consecutive 3-0 Cambuur wins in head to heads.

Dordrecht (12th)

  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • No draw in 25 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • Only 1 win at home v the top 13 teams.
  • 2-3-1-2-2-2-2-2-goals conceded at home v the top 10.
  • No 0-0.
  • 66% of goals conceded and 61% of goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Cambuur (9th)

  • Only 2 losses in 11 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • All 5 wins away came v teams 10th and lower.
  • 15 of 20 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Cambuur slightly edge it on form. Dordrecht, if conceding 2 goals again v a top 10 side, will struggle to score 2. Cambuur have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches so have 2 goals in them.
  • Cambuur are a very strong 2nd half goalscoring side so note that if Dordrecht lead or 0-0 at halftime.

19:00 - Almere City v Jong PSV - 2.36 Almere

  • 3-2 Jong PSV last head to head.

Almere City (11th)

  • Only 3 wins in 13 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored in their last 17 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home (12%).
  • v top 5, lost to 1st and 2nd, beat 3rd and 4th at home.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match at home.

Jong PSV (5th)

  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches.
  • 17 of 24 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Jong PSV's away form is muddling which means we cannot discount a loss, or a win, for them. Unreadable sides do not make for good trading sides.

19:00 - Fortuna Sittard v Den Bosch - 1.39 Fortuna

  • 1-1 and 2-4 Fortuna in the last 2 head to heads.

Fortuna Sittard (1st)

  • Unbeaten in 11 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 and last 17 at home.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home (12%).
  • 11 wins and a 2-2 at home v 8th and lower.

Den Bosch (13th)

  • 5 losses and 2 wins last 7 matches. The 2 wins came at home.
  • No win in 10 away matches.
  • Conceded in those 10 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away (12%).
  • Lost away to all top 6. 1-0 losses v 1st and 3rd away.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score based on the % but concern with Den Bosch's 2 1-0 losses away v top 3.
  • Fortuna should be eyeing the win today. It might be tight.
  • Keep the faith if 0-0 or 0-1 as Fortuna have scored in their last 11 matches and last 17 at home.

19:00 - Go Ahead Eagles v FC Eindhoven - 2.28 Go Ahead Eagles

  • 0-0 and 3-2 Eindhoven in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Relegation six pointer or is this league a relegation play-off league?

Go Ahead (17th)

  • 2 consecutive 1-0 defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 7 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home (18%).
  • v 14th and lower at home, 2-1, 2-1, 3-1, 0-0, 0-0.

FC Eindhoven (16th)

  • 8 consecutive away defeats.
  • No win in 10 away.
  • Conceded in their last 17 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 9 matches and last 8 away.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v teams below them in the league.

Conclusions

  • And I stop there. Both of these sides tend to produce positive results v the bottom sides so I can make an equal argument for either side.

19:00 - Helmond Sport v NEC Nijmegen - 1.39 NEC

  • 1-1 last head to head.

Helmond (18th)

  • 4 consecutive defeats conceding 3 goals in each. They did score 2 goals in the last 2 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 home matches.
  • All defeats at home v top 6 - 2+ goals conceded v top 6 at home.

NEC (3rd)

  • Lost their last 2 away, won their last 2 at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 17th and lower.
  • 20 of 30 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • NEC are poor away from home tending to lose far more than they win. They are, though, unbeaten v bottom 4 and that may see them get the points. It was 1-1 last head to head.
  • Helmond are scoring 2+ goals but v top 6 teams at home they are conceding 2+ goals.
  • Even if Helmond score 2 goals, I would still expect NEC to go unbeaten this evening.