I have included the Irish Premier Division today. 12 matches in and patterns are emerging. Note there are no halftime stats available for the Irish Premier Division which is a big loss to us. But in matches such as Bray's, you can take the opinion that goals are expected and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in expectation for goals.
Potential big night in the Premiership for Chelsea. They win, they win! Everton's last home match of the season so expect a good performance from a team with a draw and 2 defeats in their last 3 matches, failing to score in those 3. Lukaku dreaming on Sunny Southend already? Celtic have tended to score first and then concede. This is their pattern recently. I hope for more of that today! It has been a profitable angle recently since they nailed the title and are playing with one eye on their hols.
18:00 - AFC Utd v Norrkoping - 1.66 Norrkoping
- I continue with a gradual introduction to the Swedish Allsvenskan.
- This is 16th v 5th and I have a feeling AFC Utd are newly promoted and, bottom, are struggling.
- No win yet for AFC Utd after 7 matches, sees 4 defeats and 3 draws.
- They are scoring at home which is encouraging but in the home matches where they have scored, they have conceded as well, resulting in 2-2, 0-0, 1-3.
- That 0-0 was the only AFC Utd clean sheet.
- AFC have now failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- Norrkoping are an established Allsvenskan side who have 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats this season. A current run of 2 wins and 2 draws.
- 1-0, 1-2 win and 3-3 in their 3 away matches. Norrkoping have scored 5 goals in 2 aways.
- I do think AFC Utd might get another rude welcome to the Allsvenskan. They may score but lose in the process. 1-2, 1-3 would interest with a 0-2 saver. I would back these scorelines especially if 0-0 after 20 minutes.
- Caveat - creating trading angles after 7 matches is tough so please note that. There are few matches to work with.
19:45 - Everton v Watford - 1.48 Everton
- 2 score draws and a 3-2 Watford win in the last 3 head to heads.
- This is 7th v 15th in the Premiership.
- 2 matches remain for Everton and 3 for Watford.
- This is a dead rubber. Watford are safe and really only need 1 point from 3 matches to confirm.
- A draw and 2 defeats for Everton in their last 3 is reminiscent of Southampton's decline as the season ends.
- Everton have failed to score in those 3 matches. The reason the market might be so warm is because this is Everton's last home match of the season.
- Watford have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, their last 4 wins coming at home and pretty much saving the season.
- Although they beat Arsenal, Watford have lost against the rest of the top 9.
- Everton at home are unbeaten outside the top 4.
- Stick with the market and the home side to send Evertonians home happy.
19:45 - Aberdeen v Celtic - 1.76 Celtic
- I think this is a Championship match after the season-proper in the Scottish Premier League has ended.
- Aberdeen have lost their last 2 home matches without scoring.
- Celtic have scored and conceded in their last 5 matches without winning.
- Against Partick Thistle, Kilmarnock, Ross County and St Johnstone lately, Celtic have scored first and then conceded the next goal. Do note this if they score first today. Yes, we need to trust in Aberdeen ending their run of 2 matches.
- It is not a match I want to dwell on at this part of the season bar that Celtic pattern of scoring and conceding next which I have highlighted, and profited from, in Live Chats. Trade out though if there is an equalizer as Celtic do tend not to lose.
19:45 - Galway Utd v Cork City - 1.48 Cork City
- 0-5 and 4-0 Cork City in the last 2 head to heads.
- This is 11th of 12 v 1st after 12 matches in the Irish Premier Division.
- Note in order to find the Challenge table in the Irish premier division, you have to use www.fcstats.com as soccerstats.com's coverage is not as comprehensive as, say, the English Premiership.
- Only the one win for Galway in their 12 matches was v 3rd placed Dundalk at home. Galway have already lost 4-0 away to Cork this season (12 matches old).
- Galway's problems are draws. 7 draws this season, 6 were score draws. Galway have only scored 2 goals once at home and that was in the Dundalk win which looks a little anomolous.
- 6 draws in their last 8 matches. Draws tell us that Galway could be layed if leading.
- Only the one clean sheet for Galway all season came last match.
- A perfect record for Cork, 100% wins.In their last 5 aways, Cork have scored at least 2 goals.
- 6 clean sheets in 7 too for Cork.
- I am still using this basic form of research. 12 matches in. Some good patterns. Cork City are likely to continue scoring and thereby not lose as Galway have trouble scoring that 2nd goal at home.
- Back Cork if Galway score first. If Cork can score 2 goals at least again, then the win should be theirs.
- Lay any late 0-0.
19:45 - St Patricks v Drogheda - 1.74 St Pats
- 2-0 Drogs in the most recent head to head.
- This is 12th v 7th in the Irish Premiership. St Pats have the worst form in 12 matches so far.
- Only 2 wins all season for St Pats but they have had 3 score draws in their last 4 matches so it's not all doom and gloom.
- They are poor at home. 4 defeats and a win.
- Only 1 clean sheet is a problem for St Pats.
- More points accumulated away for St Pats.
- 2 consecutive score draws for Drogheda. Both teams know this score draw pattern is leaking points.
- Only 1 loss in 5 for Drogs.
- No away draw for Drogs sees 4 losses end with a win.
- Tellingly, Drogs have 2 away wins v 10th and 11th without conceding. They are unbeaten v 10th and lower.
- Reminders that this is early in the season. St Pats are a dangerous side for the trader because their form shows no patterns. They could do anything. The market actually sides with St Pats despite Drogheda having the better recent form and remaining unbeaten v the current bottom 3.
- I would take a chance and lay any late score draw in the hope these 2 are getting tired of dropping points by drawing. I would lay St Pats if St Pats scored first based really on Drogs having the better recent form.
19:45 - Bohemians v Shamrock Rovers - 1.94 Shamrock
- 3-1 Shamrock in the most recent head to head and 2-1 in the league.
- This is 9th v 6th in the Irish Premier Division.
- Only 1 draw for Bohs so far but 7 defeats and 4 wins, 2 wins were 0-1 away wins.
- Bohs failed to score at home v top and bottom. They have scored 2+ goals twice so have goals in them at home.
- That said, failing to score in 5 of their last 6 is a worry.
- 100% over 1.5 goals at home for Bohs.
- No 0-0 this season for Bohs ...yet.
- Shamrock Rovers have scored and conceded in 10 of their 12 matches this season.
- They have only 1 away win v 11th. 3 away defeats were 2-1.
- They have beaten Bohs 2-1 this season.
- Bohs have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 but did score 2 goals in their last home match. A sign of change? They play a Shamrock side who like conceding.
- I would try out my 2-1/1-2 trade here today. And trade out of both scores if 1-1 is hit. Last head to head was 2-1 so that is a sign Bohs could score. Shamrock defeats away tend to be 2-1 and their sole away win was 2-1.
19:45 - Dundalk v Sligo Rovers - 1.38 Dundalk
- A comprehensive 0-4 Dundalk in the last head to head.
- This is 3rd v 8th in the Irish Premier Division.
- No draw yet for Dundalk this season. Will that pattern continue?
- Solid at home. All wins bar the loss to Bray.
- Dundalk have scored in every match.
- 3 defeats in 4 matches, 2 were away. Should we be concerned or default to the solid earlier home form?
- All home wins v teams below them in the league and scored 2+ goals at home v 6th and lower.
- Sligo Rovers are yet to win away and have only 1 loss in 6 so good enough recent form.
- Sligo have failed to score only twice. They did score in defeat to 1st placed Cork so might get a goal tonight.
- Sligo cannot score more than 1 goal in a match away so I would look to lay them if they scored first.
- Strong early season patterns. Lay any late draw and hope Dundalk avoid another draw.
- Lay Sligo Rovers if Sligo Rovers score first.
- Dundalk have scored in every match so note the above, and any 0-0 can be opposed late on too.
- Dundalk on form should be scoring 2 or 3 goals. They have 3 defeats in 4 but contextually, 2 defeats were away and the other was home v 2nd in the league.
- I expect Dundalk not to lose today.
20:00 - Finn Harps v Bray - 1.89 Bray
- 5-3 to Bray the last head to head.
- This is 10th v 2nd after 12 matches in the Irish Premier League.
- Finn Harps have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- They have 5 defeats in 6 matches and Bray are not shorter odds in the betting?
- Finn have failed to score in their last 2 home matches.
- They have only the one clean sheet. Finn have lost all matches v the current top 3 and failed to score at home v 1st and 3rd going down 0-1 and 0-2.
- Those scorelines hint that Finn may offer some resistance but, like Sunderland, eventually capitulate.
- Bray have scored and conceded in 10 matches this season so give opponents a chance.
- Bray have lost 3-2 away to 8th and 9th and play 10th today. 1-3-3-2-2-2 goals scored away by Bray.
- My trading angle here? Faith in Bray scoring at least 2 goals again away from home. Let's hope they are poor defensively away again and Finn Harps can take a lead by 2 goals. That would be fantastic.
- Lay any late Desmond. 2 3-2 defeats away by Bray suggests one will end.
- Finn Harps have hit a poor run in front of goal and really Bray should punish them but Bray let them score 3 last head to head.
- I am with Bray throughout this match.
20:00 - West Brom v Chelsea - 1.39 Chelsea
- 1-0 Chelsea the last time these 2 met.
- This is 8th v 1st in the Premiership. West Brom have been on sabbatical since clinching 40 points.
- Chelsea are 7 points clear of Tottenham at the top and a win secures the title. 86 points is the maximum Tottenham can achieve. 84 points is Chelsea's current total.
- West Brom have failed to score in 7 of their last 9 matches and have lost their last 3 matches 0-1.
- They have not had a draw in 14 matches. With Chelsea's last 2 matches at home to Watford and Sunderland, Chelsea would take a draw here.
- West Brom have only 1 win v top 7.
- Note this is West Brom's last home match of the season so we may see them put in a little more effort than usual.
- 1-1 v Tottenham, 0-1 v Liverpool and 3 0-1 losses suggests West Brom still possess defensive capabilities.
- 4-3-3 scored by Chelsea last 3 matches.
- This is a match all about the context. If Chelsea win, they are Champions. This is also West Brom's last home match so expect an effort. 0-1, 0-2 are possibles. I would certainly oppose a late 0-0 or any West Brom lead.