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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 12, 2021

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English Premier League

20:00 - Newcastle v Aston Villa - 1.95 Aston Villa

Newcastle - 16th

  • Only 2 wins in 16.
  • 2 losses and 2 consecutive draws latest.
  • Win, Draw at home latest.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
  • 2-0 loss last head to head.
  • Unbeaten in the cluster 5th-8th home and away.

Aston Villa - 9th

  • Failed to score last 2 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away clean sheets ended with a 1-0 loss to Sheff Utd.
  • Have failed to score that 2nd goal last 8 matches.
  • v 10th and lower away, 7 clean sheets in 9 matches.

Conclusions

  • Oh dear, I don't think I can trust these 2. Only 2 wins in 16 for Newcastle BUT unbeaten in 2 at home plays a Villa, yes keeping clean sheets v 10th and lower but failing to sore last 2 and failing to score that 2nd goal last 8 matches.

English Championship

19:45 - Blackburn v Brentford - 2.15 Brentford

Blackburn - 14th

  • Only 1 loss in 4 matches now.
  • Loss, Loss, 1-1, 1-1 at home.
  • Scored in their last 12 at home, scored and conceded last 4 at home.
  • Not beaten the top 5.
  • 2-1-2-2 goals scored at home v 2nd -6th. 2-2 away v Brentford last head to head.
  • 10 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Brentford - 4th

  • 4 losses and 2 wins last 6 matches
  • 3 consecutive away defeats, scoring 1-0-0 goals.
  • conceded last 9 away
  • 15 goals scored away last 1/2 hour of matches

Conclusions

  • Rather like Leeds United, Brentford have an air of unreadability about them. They used to be trustworthy. Concede first, equalise by halftime, 2/3 goals 2nd half. But they are on a 3 match losing run away and have failed to score in their last 2 away matches.
  • Blackburn do threaten 2 goals v the top 6 so watch out for that. I was monitoring their match mid week and was very impressed with their shots stats at 1-1. They did not manage a 2nd goal on that occasion.
  • Both sides have a solid reputation for goals from the 60th minute onwards so remember that if it is a barren match.

Spanish La Liga Primera

20:00 - Levante v Valencia - 2.20 Levante

Levante - 11th

  • Only 4 defeats in 20 matches, 3 were 1-0 only. Solid stuff.
  • 4 consecutive home score draws.
  • Conceded last 8 at home.
  • 4-2 loss last head to head.

Valencia - 12th

  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 away.
  • Only 2 away wins were 0-1.

Conclusions

  • If Valencia win away, it tends to be 0-1 so maybe lay them if they score first, particularly with Levante's score draw pattern at home and 3 losses in last 20 matches being 1-0 only?

German Bundesliga

19:30 - Augsburg v M'gladbach - 1.91 Mgladbach

Augsburg - 13th

  • Only 2 wins in 10.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal in 12 of their last 13 matches.
  • Conceded last 11 at home.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • 13/20 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Mgladbach - 10th

  • 4 defeats and a draw last 5 matches.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Champions League v Man City on 16th March 2021.
  • Unbeaten away v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Is Mgladbach's recent poor run down to their Champions League distractions v Man City, as there is another on the horizon on the 16th March. I think we have firmly established that some sides simply under perform, or are unreadable, in the league match prior to a Champions League match. On seasonal form, Augsburg have trouble scoring that 2nd goal and we exploited that to profit last match. Will that ring true today? Mgladbach are unbeaten away v 7th and lower, for what that is worth.
  • Seasonal form should see Mgladbach unbeaten but what of the Curse of the Champions League?

Italian Serie A

14:00 - Lazio v Crotone - 1.28 Lazio

Lazio - 7th

  • 17th March sees Champions League v Bayern Munich and it's realistically over.
  • 3 losses and a win last 4 matches.
  • Again, Champions League influenced?
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 12 at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.
  • 0-2 win last head to head.
  • 12/18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Crotone - 20th

  • 10 defeats and 2 wins last 12 matches.
  • 7 consecutive away defeats.
  • No win in 13 away.
  • Conceded last 14.
  • All wins have come at home v 15th and lower.

Conclusions

  • The Champions League looks over for Lazio but even if they were to be distracted, Crotone have tended to do their winning at home v 15th and lower. They have no win in 13 away and Lazio have 6 consecutive home wins. The market looks right but the Curse of the Champions League is always there to prove the seasonal form wrong!

19:45 - Atalanta v Spezia - 1.25 Atalanta

Atalanta - 5th

  • 4 wins and a loss to Inter Milan latest.
  • Real Madrid on the 16th March, a tie they are still in come 2nd leg. Will that be a distraction?
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 home matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower. 0-0 last head to head.
  • 3 or 5 goals scored at home v 14th and lower.
  • 66% goals scored at home 2nd half.

Spezia - 15th

  • You know this lot well I hope?
  • 2-2-0-3-0-2-2-0-2-0-1 goals scored recently. Yes, they have the occasional 2 goal habit and v the likes of Napoli, Roma, Sampdoria and AC Milan no less!
  • They have failed to score last 2 defeats away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away, only once at fulltime.
  • Have lost away to all top 4.
  • 21/25 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The Curse of the Champions League for Atalanta? It had better not bite, because on their day, Spezia score 2 goals and v solid sides. And will be their should the curse occur.
  • It was 0-0 last time these 2 met and if I remember, that was near a Champions League match. So it is not all wrapped up for Atalanta. On seasonal form, Spezia do concede heavily v the top 4 away and play 5th today.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

13:00 - MVV Maastricht v Jong AZ Alkmaar - 2.15 MVV

  • Match outcome: Maastricht have won 9/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while Jong AZ have lost by two or more goals in 11/18 away matches. Maastricht have won by two or more goals in 8/11 home matches against bottom-six teams.

15:30 - FC Eindhoven v Almere - 2.85 Almere

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 9/15 FC Eindhoven home matches and in 8/10 Almere City away matches. Almere City have won 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams.

17:45 - Den Bosch v FC Volendam - 1.73 Volendam

  • 1st half outcome: Volendam have won the first half in 11/20 away matches and they have scored first in 9/12 away matches. Den Bosch have drawn 10/13 home matches against top-half teams.

17:45 - Dordrecht v TOP Oss - 2.20 TOP Oss

  • Match outcome: FC Oss have lost 8/13 away matches and they have lost the first half in 13/20 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 6/8 Dordrecht home matches against bottom-six teams.

17:45 - Excelsior v Jong Utrecht - 1.83 Excelsior

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/7 Excelsior home matches against bottom-six teams and in 13/17 Jong Utrecht away matches. Jong Utrecht have lost 8/10 away matches against middle-third teams.

17:45 - NEC Nijmegen v Jong PSV Eindhoven - 1.44 NEC Nijmegen

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 NEC home matches against bottom-six teams and in 10/11 Jong PSV away matches against top-six teams. Jong PSV have lost 10/10 away matches against top-six teams.

20:00 - Go Ahead Eagles v Cambuur - 1.91 Cambuur

  • Asian handicap: Cambuur have won by two or more goals in 12/20 away matches and they have won the first half in 9/14 away matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 5/8 G.A. Eagles home matches against top-six teams.

20:00 - NAC Breda v Helmond - 1.36 NAC Breda

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 NAC Breda home matches against middle-third teams and in 8/10 Helmond away matches against top-six teams. Helmond have lost 8/10 away matches against top-six teams.

20:00 - Roda v Jong Ajax - 2.00 Roda

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/11 Roda JC home matches against middle-third teams and in 8/8 Jong Ajax away matches against top-half teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 8/11 Jong Ajax away matches.

20:00 - Telstar v De Graafschap - 1.85 De Graafschap

  • Match outcome: Telstar have lost 5/10 home matches against top-six teams while De Graafschap have won 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams. De Graafschap have drawn the first half in 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams.