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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, June 12, 2015

 Odds taken from www.willhill.com. The Betfair coupons were not up until the day before the matches. There will be price discrepancies so please look at the Betfair odds. Do note any time differences too. There are occasional mistakes in time at www.willhill.com

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches.

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised.

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

12 Jun 17:00 UK Kazakhstan v Turkey  - 1.4 away

Standout Stats

  • Turkey showed they are in good nick with a convincing win against Bulgaria in a friendly recently.
  • This is a Euro qualifier.
  • The Kazaks have a dire record.7 losses and 2 0-0 draws in their last 9 matches. 4 consecutive defeats conceding 3-4-3-3 goals.
  • In 2014, 0-0 at home, 2-4 and 0-3 losses to the likes of Czechs and Iceland
  • Turkey beat the Kazaks 3-1 at home, in between 2 1-1 draws. So this match is important for them given that one of the teams they are playing is the Netherlands. 3 points are required from these minnows.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Must win you feel for Turkey as they keep drawing their other opponents. 3-0 already suggests Turkey will win against a poor Kazak side.
  • I cannot see any strong angles in so look for potential shocks and exploit them.
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7:45pm - Andorra v Cyprus  - 1.29 away

Standout Stats

  • 5-0 to Cyprus in an earlier euro qualifier with Andorra.
  • All defeats for Andorra and another tonight. They have not scored in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Cyprus have not had a draw. 3 points could see them equal with Israel if Israel lose.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • It's normally wins to nil when meeting Andorra so that's the angle in today. 1.29 is relatively high when playing a minnow like Andorra.
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12 Jun 19:45 UK Croatia v Italy  - 2.37 home

Standout Stats

  • Due deference to Croatia that they are actual favourites here. The top 2 in Group H tussle here. The Croats have 13 points after 5 matches.
  • The Croats drew 1-1 with Italy earlier and the market expects another tight match. 4 wins and a draw so far this campaign.
  • Italy have 2 consecutive score draws in the Euros and this might be a 3rd tonight. Norway are only 2 points back in 3rd spot so Italy need to arrest these draws.
  • Italy have scored 2 goals on 3 of 5 occasions. 0-2, 0-1 and 2-2 in their 3  matches. The 2-2 was a poor one v Bulgaria.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Too tight to call. I would lay the first goal scorer to manufacture a value angle in but this really could go either way. The greater need is with Italy who have dropped points with 2 score draws.
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12 Jun 19:45 UK Norway v Azerbaijan  - 1.3 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-1 to Norway earlier in the Euro qualifiers. The market expects a more emphatic showing tonight.
  • Norway are bang in contention in a tough GRoup H, 3rd to Croatia and Italy.
  • With 1st and 2nd sure to take points off each other, a win for Norway today will see them possibly 2nd in the group.
  • No draws yet for either side so lay any late draw.
  • Norway have only lost to the big 2 this campaign.
  • Azerbaijan have 4 losses and a win in their Euro qualifiers.They only beat Malta but failed to score v Croatia and Norway.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Needs must for Norway today and I think they should record an unconvincing win, possibly to nil. They have to take advantage of Croatia meeting Italy today. If 0-0 for a while, lay said 0-0. I would even lay the 0-0 halftime score here as late as I can.
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12 Jun 19:45 UK Iceland v Czech Republic  - 2.6 away

Standout Stats

  • 1st and 2nd in Group A and the winner goes top. A draw sees the Czechs remain top.
  • 4 wins and a 2-1 loss to the Czechs for Iceland.
  • All wins were to nil.
  • 3-0 v Turkey and 2-0 v Netherlands is eyecatchingly good home euro qualifier form for Iceland.
  • Czechs have 4 wins and a 1-1 draw. Both teams have scored in those 5 matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both teams could score today and I would lay the Czechs if they score first today simply because Iceland at home have been so good.
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12 Jun 19:45 UK Bosnia v Israel  - 1.73 home

Standout Stats

  • Belgium and Wales dominate Group B but Israel are only 2 points shy of these 2.
  • Bosnia's only win this campaign came v Andorra. Says it all recently.
  • 1-2 loss to Cyprus at home and 1-1 draw with Belgium
  • Israel won 3-0 at home in their encounter.
  • Israel won their first 3 matches but lost against Belgium and Wales at home, without scoring.
  • Israel have won their 2 away matches v Cyprus and Andorra and both teams scored.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Tough to call. On form, Israel should not lose. Only the big 2 have beaten them and Belgium only won 1-0.
  • Bosnia are in poor form. They did actually have the 2 highest scorers in European World Cup qualifiers  but 1-0-1-0-3 goals means they should be opposed if leading as they have not shown they can score a 2nd v other than the minnows.
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12 Jun 19:45 UK Wales v Belgium  - 1.8 away

Standout Stats

  • Wales have had a good campaign so far in these euro qualifiers. Both teams are on 11 points in Group B with Israel close on 9 points.
  • A win here could be absolutely crucial.
  • 2 0-0's for Wales v Bosnia and Belgium. Wins v Andorra (expected), Cyprus (expected) and Israel.
  • Belgium have 4 wins and said 0-0 v Wales.3-5-1-4 scored in the wins. I think Belgium are worthy favourites here and should not lose today

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I don't think Wales will win today. I hope they do as one of the home nations but if Belgium click, they score 3+ goals. Lay Wales if they score first today. It could as easily be 0-0 as a high scorer!
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12 Jun 19:45 UK Malta v Bulgaria  - 1.28 away

Standout Stats

  • Both of these sides are strugglers in Group H. Bulgaria on 5 points, are 4 points shy of 3rd spot. Malta only have one point.
  • 4 losses and a 1-1 draw with Bulgaria for Malta so far in these Euro qualifiers.
  • That goal was a penalty and the only goal scored so far.
  • Bulgaria's recent 2-2 home draw with Italy I hope will ignite some self-belief. It's the 2nd consecutive score draw and I would take a chance and lay any late score draw in the hope this sequence ends tonight.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Bulgaria should win to nil tonight. Malta's solitary goal was via a penalty. Bulgaria have scored before halftime in their 2 aways so far. Lay the 0-0 halftime score as late as you can.
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12 Jun 19:45 UK Latvia v Holland - 1.2 away

Standout Stats

  • The Netherlands are faltering here in GRoup A as the Czechs and Iceland dominate. Netherlands are 5 points shy of 2nd spot.
  • No wins yet for Latvia, have seen 3 draws, including a 1-1 v Turkey and Czechs.
  • The Netherlands beat them 6-0 at home. Emphatic.
  • The Netherlands have been poor, losing to the top 2, beating the obvious Kazaks and Latvians.A 1-1 draw with Turkey followed.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • With Iceland taking on the Czechs tonight, one or both of these sides will drop points. This becomes a must-must win for the Dutch and they should have enough to shorten the 5 point gap to 2nd tonight. This could be the pivotal match in their Euro campaign.
  • I am not sure of any value angle . I would lay the 0-0 halftime score and hope to delay to get a short price.
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7:45pm - Cabinteely v Athlone  - 1.57 away

Standout Stats

  • 2-2 the last time these 2 met in 2015
  • This is 8th of 8th v 5th in the Irish First Division

Cabinteely

  • Only 2 wins this season, both 1-0 at home.
  • 5 of their last 6 defeats were away.
  • No win in 9
  • Conceded in those 9
  • 2 consecutive home score draws.

Athlone Town

  • No draw in 5 away
  • Conceded in their last 6 away and failed to score in their last 3 away
  • Only 2 wins in 9 were home 1-0 wins.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both teams are in very iffy form. I would lay Cabinteely if they score first given their score draws but do note that Athlone have failed to score in their last 3 away. I do think that they can break this poor pattern.
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7:45pm - Cork City v Bray  - 1.23 home

Standout Stats

  • Cork have won the last 3 head to heads away, latterly 0-1 and 0-2. At home, 1-3, 3-1,1-1 so Cork do tend to concede.
  • This is 2nd v 11th in the Irish Premier Division.

Cork City

  • Only 1 defeat
  • No defeat in 6 matches
  • 6 wins , a draw and a defeat at home.0-0 last time out at home.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.

Bray

  • No win in 4 away
  • Only 1 win in 8 was a big surprise at home to St pats.
  • 2 0-0's in their last 4 away matches.
  • 8-1 and 4-2 losses away recently

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Cork to end their 0-0 sequence at home today? It certainly could be the case if the Bray who lost 8-1 and 4-2 recently away turns up and not the Bray of the recent 0-0's away.
  • I would lay any late 0-0 here. I cannot see that happening again.
  • Bray should get well beaten today but they did surprise St Pats lately albeit at home.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score here as late as possible in the hope Bray revert to the team which conceded 12 in 2 recent aways.
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7:45pm - St Patricks v Limerick  - 1.21 home

Standout Stats

  • 2 Limerick wins and a 1-2 St Pats win in the last 3 head to heads. The market is emphatic though that Limerick will not win this match! Do we agree?
  • This is 4th v 12th in the Irish Premier Division

St Pats

  • 2 match winning streak
  • No draw in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home came v Dundalk 2 home matches ago. Dundalk are currently top.

Limerick

  • 4 match losing streak.
  • No win in 15 matches.Conceded in those 15 matches.
  • 4 losses and a draw in their last 5 away matches.
  • 2 1-0 losses in their last 3 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • In 6 matches, Limerick have never lost by more than 2 goals.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Interesting recent form from Limerick. They have been very tight in their last 6 matches, albeit not winning. They keep conceding and that is a strong angle in today. Expect a St Pats goal at some stage. 2 recent 1-0 losses for Limerick suggests they can keep things tight but as I say may eventually concede. Only the top of the league has beaten St Pats at home.
  • Lay Limerick if they score first.