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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 12, 2018

A tester for coming attractions today as the German Bundesliga returns with league leaders Bayern Munich. Not the strongest selection of matches today.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Sheffield United v Sheffield Wednesday - 1.95 Sheff United

  • 2-4 Sheffield United in the sole recent Championship head to head.

Sheffield United (7th)

  • Sheffield derby of course and we could see a case of best on the day.
  • Only 1 win in 9 matches came against Sunderland. Poor stuff.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 14 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 defeats home and away v 16th and lower.
  • Clarke is the key goal scorer at home. If he does not play, that may change the balance.

Sheffield Wednesday (16th)

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches. As bad as their neighbours.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Muddling away form.
  • 13 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Oh dear. One win in 9 plays one win in 10 matches.
  • I would lay any late 0-0.
  • Note Sheff Weds horrendous 2nd half conceding stats if they lead or if it is 0-0 at halftime.
  • Apart from that, it looks like a Sean Bean special blood and thunder steel city derby.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:45 - Strasbourg v Guingamp - 2.48 Strasbourg

  • Another 2.48 favourite and what does that tell us? Yes, the market has not got Le Clue in this French Ligue 1 match.
  • I am analysing the results for matches where the favourite is 2.4 or higher. There are some patterns. More on that later.
  • I will research this match given the scarcity of top flight matches today.
  • 2-0 Guingamp the last time these 2 met in the top flight.

Strasbourg (11th)

  • Only 2 defeats in 12 matches came away from home.
  • 3 2-1 wins in their last 4 at home includes Paris St Germain!
  • Only 3 clean sheets so look like they need those 2 goals to secure wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals on 6 occasions at home so not exactly a fluke!

Guingamp (8th)

  • Solid at home v teams around them but away from home unable to score that 2nd goal so far.
  • All defeats bar one home and away though came v top 6 teams.
  • Opponents tend to score first and lead at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • The market always seems to flag up these imponderables. I would have sided with Strasbourg here and their 2 goal wins recently at home but then I note that Guingamp beat them already at home and have lost all bar one match v top 6 sides. The hint? 11th in the league will be an easier match.
  • It does look like Strasbourg will concede. Only 3 clean sheets all season. They certainly have goals in them too. Is 2-1/1-2 a goer here? We know Strasbourg certainly show that 2-1 habit in 3 wins in 4 at home. Guingamp may contribute a goal given they are not playing top 6 today.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich - 1.87 Bayern Munich

  • Post der grossen mince pien for these German sides returning after their Winter Break. Will this affect form reading?
  • Leverkusen are unbeaten in the last 3 head to heads at home, with 3 0-0s  and 2 consecutive 0-0 scorelines. Surely these are opposable? 0-0 is a hard sequence to continue.

Bayer Leverkusen (4th)

  • Oly 3 defeats came away from home and one was against Bayern Munich.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 6 consecutive home matches scoring 2+ goals ended last 2 home matches .
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All score draws in the home matches played v top 12.
  • Scored and conceded in all matches v top 7.
  • Scored first in 6/8 at home.
  • Led at halftime at home in 5/8.

Bayern Munich (1st)

  • 9 wins in 10 matches.
  • 3 of the last 4 away wins were 0-1.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • Lost away to 6th and 7th.

Conclusions

  • Surely not another 0-0? I would take on any late 0-0 despite acknowledging Bayerns recent clean sheets and 0-1 habit away.
  • Will Leverkusen score as they have in every match? If they score first or lead 2-1 I would lay them given that score draw sequence v top 12 sides.
  • It is an interesting match niggled somewhat by that return from the extended Winter Break.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Getafe v Malaga - 1.76 Getafe

  • These 2 last met in February 2016.

Getafe (11th)

  • 3 losses in the last 10 matches all came away from home.
  • Rock solid defensively at home. Only Barcelona and Real Madrid have scored 2 goals against Getafe at home.
  • 3 home losses came v top 5 teams.
  • 10 of 15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Malaga (19th)

  • Only 3 wins all season, one came within the last 2 away matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets all season, one came in that away win.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches but the last 2 defeats were only 1-0 so keeping it tight.
  • No away draw.
  • Did beat 12th away 0-2 and that came out of the blue as it's all defeats bar that away from home.
  • 12 of 17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Malaga have the kind of form which suggested a new manager but I have checked and that is not the case.
  • Their recent win v Sociedad came out of nowhere away from home and is not in keeping with dire away form for the rest of the season.
  • Getafe look rock solid defensively at home and that may be the key to their success. Only Barcelona and Real Madrid managed a 2nd goal away at Getafe and with a Malaga failing to score in 4 of their last 5 matches, it would have to be advantage Getafe today if their defence clicks and they score at least a goal. There is that niggle of that Sociedad win away for Malaga but I would lay Malaga if they scored first today. They are not quite in the same camp as Barca and Real so I assume will have trouble wrapping up a win with a second goal.
  • Do watch out for second half goals if 0-0 at halftime.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - Volendam v FC Oss - 1.58 Volendam

  • 2-2 and 1-0 Oss last 2 head to heads.

Volendam (17th)

  • 3 wins in the last 5 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 win v top 14 teams and they are odds on favourites?
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

FC Oss (10th)

  • Only 5 losses all season.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of the last 8 head to heads.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 2 away losses. 3 wins in 4 matches away v 12th and lower, scoring 3 goals in each case.
  • Never conceded a first half goal away.

Conclusions

  • Have the market makers been on Amsterdam's finest wacky backy? Volendam odds on favourites?
  • There may be a back story to that but on form lay Volendam if Volendam score first.
  • Watch for a 0-0 at halftime but not fulltime.
  • A very strange market indeed. Strong both teams to score bias for Oss away.

19:00 - Waalwijk v Jong AZ Alkmaar - 1.66 Waalwijk

  • 2-1 Jong AZ in the last head to head.

Waalwijk (15th)

  • All 4 wins this season came within the last 9 matches.
  • 4 wins in the last 5 home matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • 2 1-0 wins, a loss and a 2-2 v teams below them at home.

Jong AZ (19th)

  • 8 losses in 9 matches.
  • Only 1 draw was a 2-2.
  • No clean sheets.
  • No draw in 14 matches.
  • All defeats away v 9th and lower  2/3 goals conceded way in all bar one of those matches.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0, Jong should concede at some point.
  • Jong are conceding 2/3 goals away regularly v 9th and lower so if that pattern continues, lay Jong AZ if they score first.
  • Waalwijk have a chance here and their only 4 wins came within the last 5 home matches.

19:00 - NEC Nijmegen v Go Ahead Eagles - 1.35 NEC Nijmegen

  • 1-2 Go Ahead and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

NEC Nijmegen (2nd)

  • Only 2 losses came away from home.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 6 wins and a draw in 7 matches at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home and at halftime at home.
  • 7 wins and a 1-1 at home v 9th and lower.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • 7 of 8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Led at home in 8/10 at home.

Go Ahead Eagles (13th)

  • Unbeaten in 8 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away losses conceding 2/3 goals.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 2-1 and 3-1 losses v top 4 away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today with NEC not losing. I hope Go Ahead score first as I would lay them.
  • NEC should score 2/3 goals today so let that be an angle. having led in 8/10 at home, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - Cambuur v De Graafschap - 2.26 Cambuur

  • 2 draws and 2 wins for De Graafschap in the last 4 head to heads.

Cambuur (14th)

  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Wins at home v 1st and 4th, losses v 2nd and 5th and play 6th today at home.
  • 9 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

De Graafschap (6th)

  • Only 4 defeats. 2 consecutive away defeats though.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 13 matches and last 6 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.
  • 14 of 18 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Slight nod towards De Graafschap today based on head to heads and the fact De Graafschap are unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower in the league.
  • Cambuur have kept only 3 clean sheets, De Graafschap have scored in 13 matches.
  • Watch out for a 0-0 at halftime. It is possible but De Graafschap have a strong scoring record 2nd half so watch for that scenario.
  • I would lay Cambuur if Cambuur scored first.

19:00 - Jong PSV v Helmond Sport - 2.06 Jong PSV

  • PSV won the 2 2017 head to heads.

Jong PSV (5th)

  • Only 2 losses in 10 matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 home matches.
  • 3 2-3 scorelines in the last 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 losses home and away v 9th and lower.

Helmond Sport (18th)

  • 2 draws and a win last 3 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets - 2 consecutive!
  • No win in 5 away matches.
  • Only 1 away win v 19th.
  • Scored and conceded in 8/9 matches v top 9 teams.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I would lay Helmond if Helmond scored first. They tend to score v top 9 but only 1 win.
  • Jong PSV are in a good groove today and on form look the team most likely to win here.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Jong PSV.

 19:00 - FC Eindhoven v Emmen - 2.46 FC Eindhoven

  • 3 Emmen wins and a 1-1 in the last 4 head to heads.

FC Eindhoven (12th)

  • 3 wins in 4 home matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • No win v top 10 home and away.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their 9 home matches.
  • 12 of 16 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

FC Emmen (7th)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 11 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 2-2 draws.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • A touch of old draw-itis. Unbeaten v top 14 home and away but 10 of 13 matches were draws.
  • Rather random losses away v 18th and 19th.

Conclusions

  • The market has taken a neutral position. For me, both teams could reasonably score today. With only 2 defeats and umpteen draws, for Emmen, it suggests we can lay the first goal scorer today?
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the suggestion for goals.
  • A draw does look best case for FC Eindhoven v draw specialists Emmen. It fits in with Eindhoven's inability to beat top 10 teams home and away.

19:00 - Jong Utrecht v Dordrecht - 2.5 Jong Utrecht

  • Another match with a 2.5 odds favourite so brace yourself for a potentially unreadable match.
  • Dordrecht have won the last 2 head to heads.

Jong Utrecht (20th - bottom)

  • 10 defeats in 12 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home defeats.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home. Interesting for bottom of the league!
  • Only 1 win v 18th and higher home and away.
  • 15 of 17 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Dordrecht (16th)

  • 5 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime all season.
  • No away draw.
  • All defeats away bar wins v 13th and 18th.
  • Scored and conceded in the 4 matches v teams below them in the league.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score only because both teams are dire at keeping a clean sheet.
  • Watch out for Jong Utrecht being unbeaten at halftime but not necessarily fulltime. If Jong Utrecht lead at halftime the stats suggest laying them for the 2nd half.