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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, February 12, 2021

One cloud hangs over matches from today, tomorrow and Sunday and it is this. These are league matches prior to the Champions League and Europa League. We see a distinct drop in league form in such a weekend. Some managers seem happy to sacrifice league points for an improved performance in European Club competition. I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook. I usually take Friday off from Telegram because I work Saturday and Sunday. But never say never!

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Blackburn v Preston - 2.00 Blackburn

Blackburn - 8th

  • Only 1 loss in 5 was a 1-0 loss. That makes it 3 consecutive 1-0 results.
  • Win, Draw, Draw, Win at home.
  • Scored in their last 8 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, 2 at fulltime.
  • 0-3 win last head to head.
  • Only 1 home loss v 7th and lower.
  • 9 goals scored at home last 15 minutes of matches.

Preston - 11th

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches was a 1-0 win.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
  • No draw in 13 away matches.
  • 2-4-3-1-3 goals scored away v the top 6.
  • 76% goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Not happy with Preston's unreadability away and recently. Scoring 2-4-3-1-3 goals away v the top 6 yet failing to score in 4/6 matches recently! Which Preston turns up?
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0. Blackburn are keeping it tight with 3 1-0 results, 2 wins. BUT.....if you think this free scoring v the top 6 Preston turns up, Blackburn could be vulnerable if scoring.
  • Match outcome: Blackburn have won 6/8 home matches against middle-third teams while Preston have conceded first in 6/10 away matches against top-half teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/11 Preston away matches.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Celta Vigo v Elche - 1.53 Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo - 10th

  • 3 losses and now 3 draws last 6 matches.
  • 2-2 v Atl Madrid latest will give them confidence.
  • After 4 consecutive home wins, a loss and a draw.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 8th and lower. 1-1 draw last head to head. Not conceded that 2nd goal in those matches.

Elche - 19th

  • No win in 15 and in 7 away.
  • Conceded last 10 and last 4 away.
  • Positive results tend to come v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • If Celta Vigo show the fight they showed against a superb Atl Madrid side latest, then I have to favour them. The seasonal form backs me up here. Elche do their best work v 12th and lower. Celta are keeping sides to 1 goal max v 8th and lower at home.
  • 1st goal: Celta Vigo have conceded first in 7/12 home matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 6/9 Elche away matches.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Leipzig v Augsburg - 1.25 Leipzig

Leipzig - 2nd

  • 3 wins in 4 matches. Unexpected defeat to Mainz spoilt that.
  • 2 consecutive home 1-0 wins.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, only one at fulltime.
  • Only one loss home and away v 8th and lower was that loss to Mainz and still Leipzig scored 2 goals.
  • This is a match prior to a Champions League clash with Liverpool.
  • 5/6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Augsburg - 13th

  • 6 losses and 2 wins last 8 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score in all matches v the top 4.

Conclusions

  • Champions League upcoming would be the sole reason for Leipzig not winning comfortably today against an Augsburg having trouble even scoring.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • HT/FT: RB Leipzig have had W/W double results in 8/12 home matches against bottom-six teams while Augsburg have lost by two or more goals in 10/18 away matches. RB Leipzig have won the first half in 9/12 home matches against bottom-six teams.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Bologna v Benevento - 1.80 Bologna

Bologna - 13th

  • Loss, Win, Loss, Loss, Win latest.
  • Only 2 losses in 6 at home came v Roma and AC Milan.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 1-0 loss last head to head.
  • Unbeaten at home v 9th and lower but not met 12th-17th at home.

Benevento - 14th

  • No win in 5 matches.
  • 2 wins and now 2 defeats away.
  • 5 wins and a draw v 10th-15th home and away.
  • Only 1 loss away v 10th and lower.

Conclusions

  • I cannot discount Benevento here at all such is their performance v mid table sides, 5 wins and a draw. But then Bologna are unbeaten at home v 9th and lower - the concern? They are yet to meet 12th-17th at home.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Bologna home matches against middle-third teams and +3.5 goals in 5/10 Benevento away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 6/10 Bologna home matches against middle-third teams.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - RKC Waalwijk v Emmen - 2.10 RKC

RKC - 15th

  • No win in 10 but 4 1-1 draws in their last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss at home.
  • Conceded last 11 and last 10 at home.
  • Only 1 home win was a 3-2 v 14th.
  • 8/10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Emmen - 18th

  • No win.
  • 7 losses and a 0-0 last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal away.

Conclusions

  • No win in 10 plays no win all season. I note RKC's 1-1 draws recently which suggests that they can equalise if conceding first but please note these 2 are managed by Arthur Daley and Derek Trotter. They are dodgy.
  • Asian handicap: Emmen have lost by two or more goals in 11/20 away matches and they have lost the first half in 8/11 away matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 5/8 Waalwijk home matches against bottom-six teams.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

20:30 - Famalicao v Belenenses - 2.45 Famalicao

Famalicao - 17th

  • 7 losses and a win last  matches.
  • 4 consecutive home defeats.
  • Failed to score in 3/4 matches.
  • Conceded last 8 and last 9 at home.
  • Opponents scored first in 8/9 home matches.
  • 1-2 win last head to head.
  • Only 1 home win.

Belenenses - 12th

  • Only 3 wins. 2 consecutive draws, one a 0-0 v Porto.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches away.
  • Failed to score in their last 7 away. 8 consecutive under 2.5 goals away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, 3 at fulltime.
  • Only 1 away win was a 0-1.

Conclusions

  • Always a reason why it is 2.45 the favourite. 7 losses and a win for a Famalicao failing to score in 3/4 matches, playing a Belenenses with only 3 wins all season but a solid 0-0 v a solid Porto.
  • 1st goal: Famalicao have conceded first in 10/12 home matches and they have lost the first half in 8/12 home matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 10/10 Belenenses away matches.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

17:45 - Jong PSV Eindhoven v Helmond - 2.20 Jong PSV

Jong PSV Eindhoven - 16th

  • Only 3 wins since 18th September 2020.
  • A draw and 3 consecutive losses recently.
  • No win in 8 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 9 and last 5 at home. Conceded last 17 matches.
  • 1-0 loss last head to head.
  • Scored 2 goals only twice at home.
  • Only 1 home win.
  • 9/13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Helmond Sport - 14th

  • 5 score draws, and 2 wins last 7 matches.
  • 2-2, 2-2, 2-2, 1-1 away recently.
  • Only 2 losses home and away v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • The amount of times Helmond are score drawing tells us that they will make it hard for opponents to win to nil. With Jong PSV conceding in 17 matches and scoring and conceding in their last 9 matches, both teams to score has a chance here. With only 1 win for Jong PSV and with only 2 losses home and away for Helmond v 8th and lower, I would tentatively expect a positive result for the away side.
  • 1st half outcome: Jong PSV have lost the first half in 7/9 home matches against middle-third teams while Helmond have scored first in 7/11 away matches against bottom-six teams. Jong PSV have conceded first in 8/8 home matches against middle-third teams.

20:00 - Almere v FC Volendam - 2.05 Almere

Almere - 2nd

  • Only 2 losses, one came last match.
  • No defeat in 11 at home.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home, only 2 at fulltime.
  • 2-2 last head to head.
  • 16/22 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Volendam - 7th

  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches came away from home.
  • Impressive away form v top sides. Win v 1st, 3rd and 5th (loss v 4th) so on that basis cannot be wholly dismissed, hence I suppose the 2.05 odds.
  • that was the only away loss all season.

Conclusions

  • Volendam's form v the top 5 is excellent and cannot be dismissed but logically, a side like Almere have only 2 defeats all season. Surely that counts for something?
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • Asian handicap: Almere City have won by two or more goals in 7/10 home matches and they have won 9/10 home matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 15/18 Volendam away matches against top-six teams.

20:00 - NAC Breda v FC Eindhoven - 1.65 NAC Breda

NAC Breda - 4th

  • Only 1 loss in 11 matches.
  • 3 score draws and a win last 4 matches.
  • Win, Draw, Win at home recently.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 home matches.
  • Only one loss home and away v 7th and lower.
  • 2-4 win last head to head.
  • 62% of goals came 2nd half.

FC Eindhoven - 13th

  • 5 losses last 6 matches.
  • 3 draws and 2 losses last 5 away matches.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 11.
  • Failed to score away v the top 10.

Conclusions

  • Lay FC Eindhoven if they score first given they struggle to even score v the top 10 away from home.
  • Note 2/3rd of goals scored in NAC's home matches came 2nd half.
  • Match outcome: NAC Breda have won 6/8 home matches against middle-third teams while FC Eindhoven have lost 8/10 away matches against top-six teams. FC Eindhoven have lost by two or more goals in 9/14 away matches against top-six teams.

Over 3.5 goals.

Jong AZ v Jong Utrecht, Eerste Divisie, NetherlandsFebruary 12, 17:45 There have been +3.5 goals in 11/17 Jong AZ home matches and +2.5 goals in 11/14 Jong AZ home matches. Jong Utrecht have won the first half in 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  Ujpest v Diosgyor, OTP Bank Liga (Hungary), HungaryFebruary 12, 19:00 There have been +3.5 goals in 5/8 Ujpest home matches against bottom-six teams and +2.5 goals in 10/10 Diosgyor away matches against bottom-six teams. Diosgyor have had L/L double results in 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.

OVER 2.5 GOALS

Austria Wien II v FC Blau-Weiss, Austrian 2. Liga, AustriaFebruary 12, 17:30 There have been +2.5 goals in 11/17 Austria Wien II home matches and +3.5 goals in 12/20 FC Blau-Weiss away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 15/20 FC Blau-Weiss away matches.
Rapid Vienna II v SKU Amstetten, Austrian 2. Liga, AustriaFebruary 12, 17:30 There have been +2.5 goals in 5/6 Rapid Vienna II home matches and in 11/16 SKU Amstetten away matches. SKU Amstetten have scored first in 11/19 away matches.
Holstein Kiel v Wurzb. Kickers, 2.Bundesliga, GermanyFebruary 12, 17:30 There have been +2.5 goals in 13/16 Holstein Kiel home matches against bottom-six teams and in 7/10 Wurzb. Kickers away matches. Wurzb. Kickers have lost 9/10 away matches.
FC Wil v Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, Switzerland Challenge League, SwitzerlandFebruary 12, 19:00 There have been +2.5 goals in 13/20 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away matches and +3.5 goals in 8/14 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away matches. FC Wil have scored first in 7/8 home matches against top-half teams.
Slask Wroclaw v Wisla Krakow, Ekstraklasa (Poland), PolandFebruary 12, 19:30 There have been +2.5 goals in 10/10 Slask Wroclaw home matches against bottom-six teams and in 10/19 Wisla Krakow away matches. Wisla Krakow have lost 7/11 away matches against top-six teams.
Bologna v Benevento, Serie A, ItalyFebruary 12, 19:45 There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Bologna home matches against middle-third teams and +3.5 goals in 5/10 Benevento away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 6/10 Bologna home matches against middle-third teams.