DRT Daily Research Bulletin, August 11, 2017
The in-play stats were very readable in last night's Twitter chat. I hope you profited from them. They'll be required again today as we have very little form to work with. We also need to see how new recruits to teams bed in. I hope to be online @drtclub as I was yesterday. There is some quality tennis on as well but it is begin played late evening and into the night.
18:00 - ADO Den Haag v Utrecht - 2.36 Utrecht
- 3 score draws and a Utrecht win in the last 4 head to heads.
- The Dutch Eredivisie returns and this is hardly a marquee match with which to kick it off.
- 1st goal: Den Haag have conceded first in 7/8 home matches against top-six teams while Utrecht have won 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams.
- Den Haag have lost 6/8 home matches against top-six teams.
- Mid table mediocrity for ADO last season They only scored one goal at home v the top 6 (where Utrecht finished). ADO were very strong v teams below them in the league.
- Utrecht only lost 4 matches from 15th October 2016 onwards. Excellent end to the season.
- Away from home last season, Utrecht lost 3 of their 4 away matches to top 3 sides.
- If we base conclusions on last season (and it is a dangerous assumption), then we side with Utrecht in this match today and lay any ADO lead.
FRENCH LIGUE 1
18:00 - Nice v ESTAC Troyes - 1.59 Nice
- No recent head to heads in French Ligue 1.
- Match outcome: Nice have won 13/17 home matches while promoted teams have lost 55% of away matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
- Promoted teams have conceded first in 59% of away matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
- Nice lost 1-0 to St Etienne in their opener. Troyes drew 1-1 with Rennes.
- Very little to work with, as Troyes are newly promoted.
- Nice only lost one match at home last season.
19:45 - Rennes v Lyon - 2 away
- 2 consecutive score draws when Lyon has visited Rennes recently. In fact, Rennes are unbeaten in 3 of the last 4 head to heads.
- 1st goal: Rennes have conceded first in 7/10 home matches against top-six teams.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Lyon away matches.
- Rennes noticeably did not beat a top 4 side home or away last season (Lyon were 4th).
- Only 2 wins away for Lyon v the top 10 last season (Rennes were 9th) suggests a toughie for a Lyon without Lacazette, their star striker now with Arsenal.
- I can see trouble ahead for Lyon based on head to heads, the loss of such a good striker and their top 10 record away last season. Consideration for laying Lyon should they lead. Confirmation via inplay stats though as we are not sure in what shape Rennes are in.
18:00 - Malmo v Kalmar - 1.39 Malmo
- 1-1 and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.
- This is 1st v 13th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.
- Match outcome: Malmo FF have won 8/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Kalmar FF have lost 8/11 away matches.
Malmo FF have won by two or more goals in 13/20 home matches against bottom-six teams.
- Served up a nice profit in their away match v Djurgardens when they scored a late winner to end the draw. I advocated laying the draw at 1.08 odds. They hit a low of 1.04 before Malmo scored. A nice return.
- Only 1 loss.
- 4 wins to nil in 5 matches, 3 were 1-0.
- Failed to score only once.
- Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 3 home matches.
- 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
- 13 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- Only 2 draws, one came v Malmo on 27th April.
- 3 consecutive wins to nil.
- No draw in 13 matches.
- Did beat 2nd 0-1 away but that was the only away win.
- Malmo should be scoring 2 goals today and winning. They tend to score first so will likely negate any trading angle.
- I do note the recent 1-0 wins for Malmo but they have a 100% over 1.5 goals record at home.
18:00 - Sandefjord v Sogndal - 2.14 Sandefjord
- 3-2 Sogndal in the last head to head.
- This is 8th v 13th.
- Sandefjord have drawn the first half in 5/8 home matches as have Sogndal in 7/9 away matches against top-half teams.
- Sogndal have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 away matches against top-half teams.
- 4 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
- Beat 14th and 16th to nil. Other than that, unexceptional home form.
- Not conceded a first half goal at home.
- Only 1 win in 6 matches.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- Only 1 win away.
- Only scored 1 of their 6 goals away in the first half.
- Tend to concede heavily away from the 31st minute onwards.
- If there is to be a first half goal it seems Sandefjord statistically are the likelier scorers.
- On form, too, Sogndal should not be winning today , despite scoring 6 goals in 2 meetings with Sandefjord (albeit one was a friendly).
BELGIAN PRO LEAGUE (JULIPER)
19:30 - Zulte-Waregem v Club Brugge - 2.08 Club Brugge
- 2-2 and 2-1 Club Brugge in the last 2 head to heads.
- Zulte-Waregem has scored first in 10/18 home matches while Club Brugge has conceded first in 7/10 away matches.
- Club Brugge have lost 6/10 away matches.
- Both sides have 2 wins out of 2 this season. Zulte are yet to concede and scored 7 goals. Club Brugge scored 7 goals and conceded once.
- Very early in the season. One of these teams will lose their winning record. The market sides with Club Brugge as favourites.
TURKISH SUPER LIG
19:45 - Basaksehir v Bursaspor - 1.5 Basak
- The home side are also known as Buyuksehyr or Istanbul BB in Turkey's Super League and are the new kids on the block (minus the shoite music).
- Basaksehir finished 2nd last season and split apart the usual suspects, Besiktas, Fenerbahce and Galatasary.
- They were unbeaten at home and beat Bursaspor 1-0 at home and 0-2 away.
- Bursaspor endured a torrid 2017 in the league with only 3 wins. They lost 8 of 10 matches away v the top 10.
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Istanbul BB home matches against bottom-six teams and in 8/10 Bursaspor away matches against top-six teams.
- Bursaspor have drawn the first half in 7/9 away matches against top-six teams.
- All things being equal (i.e. no major impact players transferred out), Basaksehir should certainly expect a positive result tonight. That is the trading angle should Bursaspor manage to score first. They did not score v the home side last season.
19:45 - Arsenal v Leicester City - 1.49 Arsenal
- Match outcome: Arsenal have won 11/13 home matches while Leicester have lost 13/19 away matches.
- Arsenal have won by two or more goals in 8/13 home matches.
- Arsenal won 14 of 19 at the Emirates last season.
- No significant transfers out for Arsenal.
- We should expect Arsenal to remain unbeaten today. No stats of course to help us in peripheral markets such as halftime.
SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE (SPL)
19:45 - Partick v Celtic - 1.26 Celtic
- What an uncompetitive league the SPL is for teams like Celtic.
- HT/FT: Partick has had Lose/Lose double results in 7/7 home matches against the Big boys while Celtic have had Win/Win double results in 8/11 away matches. These refer to the Halftime/Fulltime markets which do go inplay but are too illiquid to trust trading.
- 22 match winning run for Celtic in head to heads ended with a 1-1 draw in April this year, then Celtic resumed their winning ways.
- Do expect a goal before halftime and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market if that goal has not materialised by the 20 minute mark.
PORTUGUESE PRIMERA LIGA
20:30 - Sporting Lisbon v Vitoria Setabul - 1.16 Sporting
- 0-3 Sporting last head to head. Setabul did win a cup head to head.
- This is the Portugeuse Primera Liga.
- Sporting has had win/win double results in 15/20 home matches while Vitoria FC have lost by two or more goals in 9/13 trips to the top 3. Sporting has won the first half in 17/20 home matches.
- Sporting came 3rd last year and only lost 2 matches.
- They beat Setabul home and away, scoring 5 goals and conceding none.
- Setabul could not beat a top 13 side away from home last season.
- 1.16 odds hints at 3/4 goals minimum from Sporting.