Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Some good calls on twitter last night for the Europa League - thank you Sheriff, Copenhagen and Hapoel beer sheva amongst others.
Thank you Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Norway for keeping us ticking over. Now we are on to Elite European League football and what should be 8 months of good profits. Today's coupon lacks recent form by-and-large. As I did in yesterday's live chat, use in-play stats to verify that these short priced favourites with little current form are playing like short-priced favourites. It is a coupon today with potential. I am not sure whether I will be tweeting though. In an ideal world, all matches would have the same kick-off time (like tomorrow's). As ever, IF I am online, I will be tweeting @drtclub.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - Man Utd v Leicester - 1.51 Man Utd

  • 3 league wins and a 2-2 all in Man Utd's favour in recent head to heads. 4-1 and 2-0 for Man Utd in the last 2 home head to heads.
  • Blind is the only major transfer out for Man Utd. Fred is the significant transfer in.
  • Mahrez has been sold to Man City. With that money, Leicester have plundered the Portugeuse Primiera Liga for 2 £20 million+ purchases.
  • Puel begins a full season now for Leicester.
  • Man Utd only lost 2 home matches last season to top and bottom of the league.
  • leicester away last season quite simply could not beat a top 8 side.
  • The market is right here based on last year's form. It all depends if those 2 Portugeuse signings make an impression, or even get into the First Team straight away.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:00 - Zwolle v Heerenveen - 2.28 Zwolle

  • Not a match which greatly appeals without form.
  • Zwolle have won the last 3 home head to heads, conceding in each match.
  • Zwolle finished 9th last season. Only 2 wins in 2018 in the league makes that 9th place even more of an achievement!!
  • Zwolle did the double over Heerenveen last season, 2 of only 3 wins v the top 8.
  • At home, Zwolle were robust outside of the top 6, where they lost only one match.
  • Heerenveen were 8th last season. 4 of their 6 wins away last season were 1-2. They needed to score 2 goals to win away at least. Both teams scored in all matches v the top 13 away last season.
  • Based on last year's form, Zwolle are expected not to lose but may concede.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMEIRA LIGA

20:30 - Benfica v Guimaraes - 1.25 Benfica

  • You're going to get a lot of trading opportunities from this league, particularly with a focus on Benfica, Sporting Lisbon, Porto, and Sporting Braga.
  • Benfica tend to win head to heads, scoring 2 goals at least.
  • Benfica were 2nd by 7 points last season. Only 3 losses last season, 2 at home v 1st and 11th. All wins bar 1 v 4th and lower at home last season.
  • Guimaraes came 9th last season.8 losses in 9 away v the top 10 last season.
  • Expect a winning start from Benfica.

TURKISH SUPER LEAGUE

19:45 - Ankaragucu v Galatasaray - 1.69 Galatasary

  • Galatasary have already been good for a trade in the Turkish Super Cup, going 1-0 down, equalising late on.
  • 0-3 and 4-0 Gala last season. They should be feeling confident here.
  • Ankaragacu are newly promoted, having finished 2nd last season so there is that element of the unknown here.
  • Galatasary were Champions last season.All of their defeats came away. All bar 1 of those defeats came away v the top 10.
  • An inference therefore that Gala should cope with a newly promoted side unlikely to be a top 10 team.

DANISH SUPERLIGA

18:00 - Vendsyssel FF v Vejle - 2.42 Vejle

  • Vejle won the last 2 head to heads, where both teams scored.
  • Still only 4 matches in.
  • Vendsyssel 3-2 win; 2-3 win; 3-0 loss; 0-1 loss. The first 3 matches were worrisome conceding 2 goals at least. That was addressed last match but then they did not score.
  • There have been 8 post 70th+ minute goals in Vin Diesel's matches this season already. Fast and Furious after the 70th minute. It might suggest laying any correct score come the 70th minute?
  • Vejle have scored and conceded in all 4 of their matches, win, 2 1-1 draws and a 1-3 loss.
  • Little to work with. I think both teams could score and we could see late goals in the last 20 minutes.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

18:00 - IFK Goteborg v Sirius - 1.86 IFK

  • 2-2 and 3-2 Sirius in the last 2 head to heads.

IFK (11th)

  • Only 1 draw this season.
  • 2 consecutive home wins surrounded by 5 losses.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home (25%).
  • All defeats bar 1 have come v the top 8.
  • 100% wins at home v 9th and lower.

Sirius (13th)

  • 3 consecutive wins including a 3-2 at home v......IFK on 22nd July.
  • IFK scored the first 2 goals.
  • All defeats exclusively v the top 10.

Conclusions

  • Ultra recent history. IFK let a 0-2 lead slip.
  • Both sides are comfortable outside of the top 10 and that makes this difficult to pick a side.
  • The value therefore, if we cannot readily dismiss the underdog, is in laying an odds on shot IFK?

18:00 - Dalkurd FF v Malmo FF - 1.45 Malmo

  • 1-0 Malmo and 1-1 last 2 head to heads. Tighter than the market sugggests!

Dalkurd (16th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • No 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only played 2 of the top 7 at home, 3-0 win v 4th and 2-2 v 7th.
  • 100% over 2.5 goals at home.

Malmo (6th)

  • 4 wins and 2 draws last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Beat 10th, 12th, 13th and lost to 15th away.
  • 1-1 draw and 1-0 loss v the bottom 2.

Conclusions

  • I am not sure why the market is so confident. There is an argument for Malmo struggles. Note Dalkurd win v 4th and 2-2 v 7th at home (yes only 2 wins all season though). Note Malmo's 1-1 draw and 1-0 loss v the bottom 2. That does not scream out backing a 1.45 shot.
  • Elsewhere, we'd lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Dalkurd but then the niggle of Malmo's poor scoring v bottom 2.
  • A match very much for in -play stats to determine whether the market is right or I am right in thinking Malmo's form is not that of 1.45 shots. It may be because their opponents have 2 wins only all season.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:45 - Marseille v Toulouse - 1.44 Marseille

  • 2-0 and 1-2 Marseille last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 18th from last season. How much of a contrast can you get?
  • Marseille only lost 5 matches last season, 2 against Lyon, one v PSG, and one in the Cote D'azur derby with Monaco.
  • All defeats came v the top 5 last season.
  • All wins bar 3 draws at home v 6th and lower. 100% win record home and away v the bottom 5.
  • Toulouse lost all bar 1 match away v the top 11.
  • No major exits for Marseille suggests we should see performances akin to last year's.

SWEDISH SUPERETTAN

18:00 - Landskrona v Degerfors - 2.22 Landskrona

  • 2-1 Degerfors in the last head to head.

Landskrona (10th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Unbeaten in 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home. Conceded in their last 8 matches overall.
  • 3 of 4 wins have come v the bottom 2 in the league.

Degerfors (8th)

  • 3 losses and a draw last 3 away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 6 away.
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches overall.
  • All defeats exclusively v the top 6 this season.
  • 100% wins v 12th and lower but away, 1-3, 0-1, 0-1 so prepare for a possible tight niggly 0-1.
  • 12 of 15 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Prepare for the possibility that Degerfors may edge another away 0-1 v lesser lights. They certainly should not be losing today. They do concede recently but their 100% win record v 12th and lower stands out for me.
  • Only 2 clean sheets is the worry for Degerfors. Landskrona tend to win v the bottom 2 so if that form is upheld, a draw is best case scenario today.

NORWEGIAN ELITESERIEN

18:00 - Sandefjord v Tromso - 2.32 Tromso

  • 3-0 Sandefjord and 4-0 Tromso last 2 head to heads. That clears that up then!!

Sandefjord (16th)

  • Only 1 win.
  • No clean sheet.
  • 5 consecutive home defeats.
  • Failed to score in their last 5 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 100% defeats v the top 7 home and away.

Tromso (7th)

  • Only 2 draws.
  • 3 wins ended with 2 consecutive defeats.
  • 4 2-1 scorelines last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime all season.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • 4-1 win at home v Sandefjord, 4-1 loss away v 15th!!

Conclusions

  • Ordinarily I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but it seems to be prevalent on Tromso conceding (10 first half goals away) rather than scoring. In Sandefjord they meet a team with 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals at home and a team incapable of scoring in their last 5 at home. So I would swerve this today BUT would consider post 30th minute lay if still 0-0. Just to reduce liabilities.
  • Expectation is for Sandefjord to concede at some point. Let that be an angle into today's match. They have 100% defeats v the top 7 so we should expect Tromso to eventually come out of this with a win (but note their 2-1 pattern recently - we can only hope Sandefjord score first for a lay of Sande!)

BELGIAN JULIPER LEAGUE

19:30 - Club Brugge v KV Kortrijk - 1.3 Club Brugge

  • As is the pattern today, we have a short priced favourite but with no current form to back it up.
  • 5-1, 1-2 and 2-1 Club Brugge in the last 3 head to heads. They are conceding!
  • 5-2 and 0-1 so far this season for Club Brugge. Kortrijk lost 1-4 at home to Anderlecht and 0-0 away at Antwerp. The Anderlecht scoreline might be the template.
  • Please note what I said above about Club Brugge conceding at least a goal v KV. Let's hope KV score first.