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Topic: DRT live chat webinar for7th March 2021

Time: Mar 7, 2021 01:30 PM London

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English Premier League

12:00 - West Brom v Newcastle - 2.45 West Brom

  • Leave this to the in-play stats or don’t trade at all. West Brom under Big Sam and Newcastle desperate to end a poor run. A welcome clean sheet run recently for West Brom. Only 2 wins for Newcastle since 16th December 2020 . They have arguably had a tough run last 3 matches v Chelsea, Man Utd and Newcastle (Loss, Loss, Draw).
  • -1.5 goals: There have been -1.5 goals in 3/5 WBA home matches against bottom-six teams and -2.5 goals in 11/14 Newcastle away matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 3/5 WBA home matches against bottom-six teams.

14:00 - Liverpool v Fulham - 1.28 Liverpool

Liverpool - 7th - Champions League Wednesday

  • A bit like their recent run of 4 defeats ending v Sheffield United, this match afford Liverpool the opportunity to end an unprecedented run of 5 consecutive home defeats and no win in 7 at home, scoring 1-0-0-0-1-0-0 goals. Any other manager other than Mr. Sparkly teeth would get the chop.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • 2 0-1 home defeats v 15th and 16th, draw v 19th and win v 20th.

Fulham - 18th

  • Only 2 defeats in 9 came at home v Leicester and Tottenham. Unlucky to have met the wrath of VAR v Tottenham, to come away 0-1 rather than 1-1.
  • 4 clean sheets in 6 matches but have failed to score in their last 2 matches.
  • no defeat in 7 away but, alas, 6 of those were draws, so seeking out a meagre point a match for going unbeaten.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away, only 2 at fulltime.
  • Have beaten 2nd and 5th away and drawn with 8th away.

Conclusions

  • It would take a brave soul to back Liverpool at those odds given they have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 home matches. Old sparkly teeth might get a reprieve today as he did v Sheffield United in a win ending another poor run. Fulham though have improved defensively with 4 clean sheets in 5 matches. Watch the in-play stats today. They certainly spoke for Liverpool v Sheffield United and it will remain to be seen whether Fulham can stifle the front 3 or not.
  • Pre-Champions League Liverpool too adds to the fun!! We saw Sevilla yesterday falter and that was because key players were rested pre-Champions League and came on all too late.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 10/12 Fulham away matches and they have drawn the first half in 7/12 away matches. Liverpool have won 11/14 home matches against bottom-six teams.

16:30 - Man City v Man Utd (Europa League Thursday) - 1.57 Man City

  • A tasty derby but you know my thoughts on these high profile derby matches. Too tough to call so there is no need to trade unless the in-play stats are emphatic
  • Match outcome: Man City have won 10/11 home matches and they have won by two or more goals in 7/11 home matches. Man Utd have conceded first in 8/14 away matches.

19:15 - Tottenham (Europa League Thursday) v Crystal Palace - 1.44 Tottenham

Tottenham - 8th

  • 3 London derbies in 6 matches, 0-1 loss v Chelsea, 2-1 loss v West Ham, 0-1 win v Fulham.
  • 2 consecutive wins to nil.
  • 2+ goals scored last 2 home matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v 10th and lower.
  • Only 1 defeat home and away v 10th and lower.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • 14/21 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • 10/13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Crystal Palace - 13th

  • 2 consecutive 0-0’s is a sequence I would be keen to see end today.
  • Unbeaten in 3 now but failing to score in 4 of their last 5 matches must be a concern for Woy. No regular goal scorer at the moment.
  • Palace have only 1 away win v the top 15, and have failed to score in 7/9 away v the top 15.
  •  1-1 last time these 2 met.

Conclusions

  • 0-0 does nobody any good so I would look to lay 0-0 late on given the Palace sequence. Will Tottenham scoring 2 goals at least in their last 2 home matches, we have a chance here of it ending. Tottenham are favoured on seasonal form, unbeaten v 10th and lower at home.
  • Match outcome: Spurs have won 9/13 home matches against middle-third teams while C Palace have lost 8/9 away matches against top-half teams. C Palace have lost by two or more goals in 8/9 away matches against top-half teams.

Scottish Premiership

12:00 - Dundee Utd v Celtic - 1.33 Celtic

  • Unless the top 6 holds something special in Scotland (European Club competition play-offs?) then there is nothing for either of these 2 to gain from their remaining 2 matches.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/12 Dundee Utd home matches and in 13/14 Celtic away matches against middle-third teams. Celtic have had W/W double results in 10/14 away matches against middle-third teams.

Spanish La Liga Primera

13:00 - Huesca v Celta Vigo - 2.45 Celta Vigo

  • It is really tight at the bottom of La Liga, so much so that 3 points could leapfrog Huesca out of the bottom 3 – they are bottom currently.
  • If we take away the probably unwinnable – anyway losses v Real Madrid and Sevilla, Huesca have had a Draw, Win, Win, Draw.
  • Draw, Loss, Win at home latest.
  • 2-1 loss v Celta Vigo last time these 2 met.
  • 20th v 11th. Celta have not met 10th-14th at home.
  • Only 1 win in 9 for Celta came v Elche at home. Only 1 loss in 6 matches suggests plenty of draws.
  • They have no win in 6 away. Worryingly for Huesca, they are unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower, albeit all draws, 3 1-1 and a 0-0, v 14th and lower away from home.
  • Angles? A chance for Huesca to get at least a draw if Celta continue to remain unbeaten v 14th and lower but draw all away.
  • 2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 4/5 Huesca home matches against middle-third teams while Celta Vigo have drawn the first half in 8/10 away matches. Huesca have drawn the first half in 4/5 home matches against middle-third teams.

15:15 - Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid - 2.7 home and away

  • The second tasty derby of the day following the Manchester Derby and the same approach. In-play stats or not at all.
  • Match outcome: Atl. Madrid have won 8/10 home matches and they have scored first in 13/17 home matches. Real Madrid have drawn the first half in 6/9 away matches against top-six teams.

17:30 - Real Sociedad v Levante - 1.50 Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad - 5th

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 2-2, 4-1, 4-0 at home recently.
  • Unbeaten in 6 and in 4 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 at home.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.
  • Only 2 home defeats.
  • 8/10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Levante - 9th

  • Only 3 defeats since 26th October 2020.
  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
  • Draw, Win, Win away.
  • 2+ goals scored last 2 away.

Conclusions

  • For me, Sociedad are really hitting the heights upfront and could simply outscore Levante today, despite Levante themselves scoring 2+ goals in their last 2 away matches. I will enter the match with that expectation.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 15/19 Real Sociedad home matches against middle-third teams and in 13/17 Levante away matches against top-six teams. Levante have lost 12/17 away matches against top-six teams.

20:00 - Athletic Bilbao v Granada - 1.65 Athletic Bilbao

Athletic Bilbao - 10th

  • 3 draws and a win last 4 matches.
  • Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Draw, Draw, at home recently.
  • 3 1-1 draws in 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home.
  • Of the top 10 played at home, have beaten 4th, 6th and 9th.
  • 2-0 loss last head to head.
  • 7 goals scored at home last 15 mins of home matches.

Granada - 8th

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches came at home.
  • Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss, Draw, Loss away recently, conceding 2-2-2-3-2-3 goals.
  • Not beaten the top 10 away.

Conclusions

  • Granada are getting a little too generous away from home, conceding 2-2-2-3-2-3 goals recently. Athletic Bilbao have 3 wins at home v the top 10 so could be competitive today. Both teams score recently in Bilbao matches.
  • 1st half outcome: Granada CF have won the first half in 5/8 away matches against middle-third teams and they have scored first in 5/8 such matches. Ath. Bilbao have lost 5/8 home matches against top-half teams.

German Bundesliga

14:30 - Koln v Werder Bremen - 2.70 Werder Bremen

  • Newly promoted v a newly renewed Werder Bremen who got a coupon busting 2-1 win v a solid Frankfurt last match.
  • After 2 wins v Bielefeld and Mgladbach, Koln have lost their last 3 matches.
  • Koln have conceded in their last 7 matches and last 2 at home.
  • 14th v 12th, Koln have not beaten top 15 at home.
  • Only 2 losses in 8 for said renewed Werder. Win, Draw, Loss, Win, Loss away though.
  • All 3 Werder away wins came v 15th and lower. Can that extend to 14th?
  • Angles? The market is none too sure but I would slightly favour Werder Bremen here particularly with that recent win against Frankfurt and a decent enough set of recent results.
  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 11/20 FC Koln home matches and in 6/9 W. Bremen away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 15/20 FC Koln home matches.

17:00 - Arminia Bielefeld v Union Berlin - 2.00 Union Berlin

  • Clash of 2 newly promoted teams in a weekend chock full with these types of fixtures, or high profile derbies or top 5 clashes. Very unreadable pre match but something we may be able to react to in-play.
  • 16th v 7th.
  • 3 losses and a win for Union last 4 away matches.
  • Union though have lost away v 15th, 17th and drew v 18th.
  • Angles? Another match making little appeal pre-match.
  • Match outcome: A Bielefeld have lost 6/6 home matches against top-half teams and they have lost by two or more goals in 4/6 such matches. Union Berlin have scored first in 7/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Italian Serie A

11:30 - Roma (Europa League Thursday) v Genoa - 1.40 Roma

Roma - 5th

  • Scraped a late winner mid week v Fiorentina.
  • Only 5 defeats since 27th September v Napoli away, Atalanta away, Lazio away, Juventus away and Milan at home.
  • Scored last 8 at home, 5 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Only home loss v 2nd.
  • 1-3 win last head to head.
  • 11/15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Genoa - 13th

  • Only 4 defeats since 7th December but 3 draws and a loss last 4 matches.
  • Not beaten top 5 home or away.
  • Not beaten top 14 away.
  • 12/17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • It takes a big name to beat Roma and Genoa are not a big name. Not beaten top 14 away. Roma have only lost to 2nd at home.
  • Roma play in the Europa League on the 11th March. Will that impact?
  • Match outcome: Roma have won 10/10 home matches against middle-third teams while Genoa have lost 15/20 away matches against top-six teams. Roma have had W/W double results in 7/9 home matches against middle-third teams.

14:00 - Crotone v Torino - 1.95 Torino

  • A bottom 3 clash brings up the question of reliability with these 2.
  • 10/11 defeats recently for Crotone contrasts markedly with Torino’s only 1 defeat in 11 matches. So why are Torino bottom 3? How about 8 draws in those 11 matches.
  • Crotone have conceded last 12 at home and are likely to give Torino at least a goal.
  • 0-0 last head to head, Torino have beaten 17th and 19th away and meet bottom today.
  • Angles? Question of reliability but on recent form, Torino may not lose, but drawitis haunts them.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Crotone home matches and in 8/11 Torino FC away matches. Torino FC have scored first in 7/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.

14:00 - Fiorentina v Parma - 1.83 Fiorentina

Fiorentina - 14th

  • 4 losses last 5 matches. Close to a 1-1 v Roma latest.
  • Draw, Draw, Draw, Draw, Win, Win, Loss, Draw, Loss at home recently. Losses v Roma and Inter Milan.
  • 7 0-0’s at halftime at home, only once at fulltime.
  • 0-0 last head to head.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 8th and lower.

Parma - 19th

  • you know the pattern. Take a 2-0 lead, get pegged back to 2-2.
  • No win in 15 and in 7 away.
  • Conceded last 12 and last 12 away.

Conclusions

  • I will favour Fiorentina. Good at home albeit against top notch sides and should be capable. Parma may well score again, they have shown a 2-0 lead habit. The question is….3rd time a charm for a 2-0 to 2-2?
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 16/20 Fiorentina home matches against bottom-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 8/10 home matches. Parma have scored first in 13/18 away matches.

14:00 - Verona v AC Milan (Europa League Thursday) - 1.91 AC Milan

Verona - 8th

  • Win, Draw, Draw, Win latest.
  • Win, Win, Win, Draw at home latest and a win v Napoli and draw v Juventus. Milan cannot be relying on 97th minute penalties to redeem them today.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 home matches.
  • 2-2 last head to head. Lost at home to 1st but beat 5th, 6th and drew with 4th.
  • 8/12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Milan - 2nd

  • Loss, Loss, Win, Draw should be Loss, Loss, Win, Loss but for a 97th minute equaliser v Udinese.
  • Win, Win, Win, Win, Loss, Win away latest.
  • 67% of away matches have seen a 0-1 lead by halftime.
  • Scored and conceded all aways v top 13 without winning.
  • 10/11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This could be competitive with Verona in really good home form, with a win v Napoli and a draw v Juventus under their belts recently, playing a Milan side liking to score and concede away v the top 13. I would consider laying a Milan lead here. I think both teams could score again. The question is why the dip for Milan v Udinese after such a superb win v Roma? And what of Ibrahimovic’s absence? Is that going to impact performance and did it impact performance v Udinese?
  • 1st goal: Verona have conceded first in 8/10 home matches against top-six teams while AC Milan have won 7/8 away matches against top-half teams. AC Milan have had W/W double results in 12/14 away matches.

17:00 - Sampdoria v Cagliari - 2.20 Sampdoria

Sampdoria

  • Only 1 win in 6 came at home v Fiorentina.
  • No draw 9 at home, conceded last 10 at home.
  • 2-0 loss last head to head.
  • Scored and conceded all home v 9th and lower.

Cagliari

  • Some small turnaround? 2 consecutive wins to nil ends a horrific run of 16 matches without a win.
  • Did win 2-0 last head to head.
  • 9/13 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This match is muddied by Cagliari’s 2 consecutive wins to nil which throws out of the window the potential to lay them if they lead. That said, Samp have scored and conceded in all matches at home v 9th and lower, Cagliari are 17th.
  • Match outcome: Cagliari have lost 10/15 away matches and they have conceded first in 10/13 away matches against middle-third teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 17/20 Sampdoria home matches.

19:45 - Napoli v Bologna - 1.57 Napoli

Napoli - 6th

  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored last 12 and last 9 at home.
  • 4 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.
  • All wins bar 3 losses v 2nd, 9th, 15th at home v 2nd-16th.
  • 8/10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Bologna - 12th

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches came last match.
  • All defeats away v top 7, conceding 2 goals at least.

Conclusions

  • Napoli can throw in the odd wobbly under Gattuso but 3 consecutive home wins and clean sheets and a solid win record v 2nd-16th at home suggests the market is right here. Bologna keep conceding 2 goals in defeat v the top 7 away and there is nothing to suggest this halting today.
  • Match outcome: Napoli have won 14/19 home matches while Bologna have lost 16/20 away matches against top-six teams. Bologna have conceded first in 8/9 away matches against top-six teams.

Dutch Eredivisie

11:15 - Ajax (Europa League Thursday) v Groningen - 1.22 Ajax

Ajax

  • 9 wins and 3 draws last 12 matches.
  • Scored last 19 and last 11 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 1-0 loss last head to head.

Groningen

  • Only 2 losses since 9th January.
  • Draw, Win, Loss, Loss, Draw away.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Conceded last 10 away.
  • 1-0 win last head to head.

Conclusions

  • With Ajax scoring in their last 19 and last 11 at home, we should not see a 2nd Groningen 1-0 head to head win. They have conceded last 10 away as well but are keeping clean sheets at home.
  • The odds are a tad short for me, but I suppose, as I say, those clean sheets are coming at home and not away for Groningen. 1.22 is on the cusp of a 3/4 goals expectation from Ajax, and a goal before halftime. If 0-0 after 20 mins, back 1-0, 2-0, any unquoted in the halftime score market.
  • HT/FT: Ajax have had W/W double results in 15/20 home matches while Groningen have had L/L double results in 7/10 away matches against Big Two teams. Ajax have won by two or more goals in 7/11 home matches.

13:30 - Fortuna Sittard v PSV Eindhoven - 1.53 PSV Eindhoven

Fortuna Sittard - 9th

  • 4 wins in 6 matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Loss, Win at home recently.
  • No draw in 11 and in 8 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten the top 8.
  • 2-0 loss last head to head.

PSV - 2nd

  • Only 3 defeats all season.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Scored last 24 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All defeats v top 5.

Conclusions

  • Sittard, for all of their recent good results, still cannot beat the top 8 and that’s how I will approach this one. PSV, remember, score! They have done last 24 matches.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/12 Sittard home matches and in 17/20 PSV away matches against top half non-Big Two teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 7/12 Sittard home matches.

13:30 - Heracles v Zwolle - 2.10 Heracles

Heracles - 11th

  • 2 losses and a draw recently.

Conclusions

  • I end the research early. No strong patterns for either side here.
  • Match outcome: H Almelo have won 5/8 home matches against middle-third teams while Zwolle have lost 9/10 away matches against middle-third teams. Zwolle have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 away matches against middle-third teams.

15:45 - Vitesse v AZ Alkmaar - 2.25 AZ Alkmaar

  • I hate to say it, but yet another derby(ish) match this weekend where either side could take the spoils.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 11/14 Vit. Arnhem home matches against top-six teams and in 11/12 AZ Alkmaar away matches against top-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 6/11 AZ Alkmaar away matches against top-six teams.