Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, April 9, 2021

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook. Friday is normally a day off in lieu of working weekends but you never know, if I'm about, I'll telegram.

English Premier League

20:00 - Fulham v Wolves - 2.45 Fulham

  • Not liking the odds here.
  • 4 losses in 5 for Fulham.
  • 3 consecutive home losses for Fulham.
  • 3 losses in 4 for Wolves. No win in 5 for Wolves.
  • Angles? In-play stats for me. 2.45 the favourite and 2 sides in poor recent form.

English Championship

19:45 - Watford v Reading - 1.83 Watford

Watford - 2nd

  • Must keep the pressure up to secure this 2nd place.
  • 6 consecutive wins ended with a draw last match.
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • No draw in 10 at home.
  • Scored in their last 12 at home.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 1-0 loss last head to head.
  • 1-0, 1-1, 1-0, 1-1, v the top 7 at home.
  • 9/12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Reading - 6th

  • Only 1 loss in 8 came away v Birmingham.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches - 3 1-1 draws.
  • Loss, Win, Draw, Loss, Draw away.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away, 4 at fulltime.
  • Not beaten the top 7 away.

Conclusions

  • Watford are unbeaten at home v the top 7 albeit single goal matches. Expect a tight match with Watford not losing? Remember Reading have had 8 0-0's at halftime away.

English League 2

18:00 - Mansfield v Newport - 2.45 Mansfield

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 6/10 Mansfield home matches. Newport have scored first in 8/10 away matches.

19:00 - Oldham v Colchester - 2.45 Oldham

  • 1st half outcome: Oldham have drawn the first half in 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 8/8 Colchester away matches against bottom-half teams. Colchester have drawn the first half in 8/12 away matches.

Scottish Championship

19:45 - Hearts v Alloa - 1.14 Hearts

Hearts

  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches sees 1 defeat and 5 draws.
  • Loss, Win, Draw, Win, Win, Loss recently at home.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Scored in their last 12 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 at home.
  • No fulltime 0-0 at home.
  • 12/16 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 3-0 win and 1-3 win last 2 head to heads.

Alloa

  • Bottom of the league.
  • Not beaten a top 5 side away.
  • Only 2 wins in 15 matches.
  • Conceded last 16.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 away.
  • 7 consecutive over 2.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • Top v Bottom should make this obvious? Only 2 wins in 8 for Hearts is a concern though but alleviated by the fact that they have scored 2+ goals in their last 3 at home. And head to heads are emphatic for Hearts, 3 goals in each of the 2 wins.

Spanish La Liga Primera

20:00 - Huesca v Elche - 2.05 Huesca

Huesca - 18th

  • Only 4 wins all season but did win their last match.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Only 1 win in 8 at home was a 3-2.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home, 3 at fulltime.
  • 0-0 last head to head.
  • Unbeaten at home v 14th and lower albeit 3 draws and a win.

Elche - 17th

  • Only 2 wins since 1st November came at home.
  • 2 losses and 2 1-1 draws last 4 matches.
  • 6 consecutive away defeats.
  • No win in 13 away.
  • Conceded last 10 away.
  • Not conceded v bottom 3 this season yet.

Conclusions

  • Both sides do not win often. Huesca did win their last match. Elche though are 2/2 v the bottom 3 away and are yet to concede.
  • The market is with Huesca but remember this is a bottom 4 clash.

German Bundesliga

19:30 - Arminia Bielefeld v Freiburg - 2.25 Freiburg

Arminia Bielefeld - 17th

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • Failed to score last 4 at home.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home, only 1 at fulltime.
  • 2-0 loss last head to head.
  • Only 1 win at home v the top 13.

Freiburg - 10th

  • 3 losses in 4.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, only 1 at fulltime.
  • 3/3 wins v the bottom 3 without conceding.
  • 15/21 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Freiburg have a good win record v the bottom 3 but a poor recent record, as does Bielefeld.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

French Ligue 1

20:00 - Metz v Lille - 1.83 Lille

  • Match outcome: Lille have won 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams and they have scored first in 8/10 away matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 9/12 Metz home matches.

Dutch Eredivisie

19:00 - Vitesse v Den Haag - 1.25 Vitesse

Vitesse - 4th

  • 4 wins and a 0-0 last 5 matches.
  • 2 wins and a draw last 3 at home.
  • 0-0 last home match.
  • 0-2 win last head to head.
  • Only 1 home loss.

ADO Den Haag - 18th

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 away.
  • No win in 13.
  • All defeats bar 1 away v the top 12.

Conclusions

  • It looks as obvious as a 4th v bottom side clash should be. ADO lose, lose, lose away v the top 12. Lost 0-2 last head to head and that is a template for today for Vitesse.
  • Lay any late 0-0. Vitesse had a 0-0 last match. These sequences rarely continue long.

Portuguese Primeira Liga

20:00 - Portimonense v Guimaraes - 2.60 Portimonense

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/13 Portimonense home matches and in 7/10 Vitoria S.C. away matches against middle-third teams. Vitoria S.C. have drawn 9/13 away matches against middle-third teams.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - Breda v Jong Utrecht - 1.50 Breda

  • Asian handicap: NAC Breda have won by two or more goals in 3/5 home matches against bottom-six teams while Jong Utrecht have lost by two or more goals in 6/8 trips to top-six teams. NAC Breda have won 13/18 home matches.

19:00 - Den Bosch v Cambuur - 1.20 Cambuur

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Den Bosch home matches and in 6/8 Cambuur away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 6/8 Cambuur away matches against bottom-six teams.

19:00 - Eindhoven FC v Jong PSV - 2.4 Eindhoven

  • Match outcome: FC Eindhoven have won 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Jong PSV have lost 9/14 away matches. FC Eindhoven have won by two or more goals in 5/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.

19:00 - Excelsior v NEC Nijmegen - 2.3 NEC

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Excelsior home matches against top-six teams and in 8/10 NEC away matches. NEC have won the first half in 6/10 away matches against middle-third teams.

19:00 - FC Volendam v Helmond - 1.50 Volendam

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Volendam home matches and in 9/10 Helmond away matches. Helmond have drawn the first half in 11/14 away matches.

19:00 - Jong Ajax v Oss - 1.95 Jong Ajax

  • 1st half outcome: Jong Ajax have won the first half in 8/9 home matches against middle-third teams while FC Oss have conceded first in 14/20 away matches. FC Oss have lost 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams.