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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Bournemouth v Man Utd - 2.26 Man Utd

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 6/10 Bournemouth home matches against top-half teams and +2.5 goals in 11/20 Man Utd away matches. Man Utd have scored first in 7/10 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Europa League for Man Utd on the 7th November.

Bournemouth (9th)

  • Only home loss v Man City.
  • 2 consecutive home draws.
  • Failed to score last 3 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • 3 losses v top 5.
  • Wins v 15th and lower.

Man Utd (7th)

  • Draw, Draw, Loss, Loss, Win away. 1-1-0-0-3 goals scored away. 3 scored v Norwich.
  • United have not met the top 9 away.
  • Only win away v 19th.

Conclusions

  • This United side remain unreadable and unreadable sides are untradable sides. Further, they are yet to meet the top 9 away and play 9th today so we cannot gauge them against early season form teams. Add onto that, Bournemouth have failed to score in 3 consecutive matches.

15:00 - West Ham v Newcastle - 1.93 West Ham

  • Match outcome: West Ham have won 9/10 home matches against bottom-six teams and they have won by two or more goals in 6/9 such matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Newcastle away matches against middle-third teams.

West Ham (10th)

  • No win in 4.
  • 2 losses in 3.
  • Loss, Win, Win, Loss at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played 9th - 18th at home. Beat 19th.
  • 7 of 8 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Newcastle (17th)

  • Only 2 wins were 1-0.
  • 4 losses and a win v Tottenham away.
  • Newcastle are yet to score a 2nd goal in a match.
  • They failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 4/5 losses for Newcastle came v the current top 5.

Conclusions

  • What do I note? Newcastle have not scored that 2nd goal so if scoring first, lay them and cover the 0-1. Newcastle tend to cluster losses v the top 5. Suggestion that they can cope outside of top 5?
  • Big gap in form for West Ham. Concern there.

Brighton v Norwich - 1.78 Brighton

  • HT/FT: Norwich have had L/L double results in 4/5 away matches and they have lost by two or more goals in 4/5 away matches. Brighton have scored first in 3/5 home matches against promoted teams.
  • Only 3 wins plays only 2 wins. Solid home form for Brighton sees them deserved favourites. 2 consecutive home wins v Tottenham and Everton scoring 3 goals.
  • Norwich have failed to score in 4 of their last 7 matches.
  • Angles? On current form we'd be with Brighton not to lose.

Sheff Utd v Burnley - 2.28 Sheff Utd

  • -1.5 goals: There have been -1.5 goals in 4/5 Sheffield Utd home matches while Burnley have drawn the first half in 7/9 away matches against promoted teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 4/5 Sheffield Utd home matches.

Sheff Utd (8th)

  • Unbeaten in 3 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Win, Loss, Loss, Loss, Win at home. Failed to score that 2nd goal.
  • Not played 7th-17th at home.

Burnley (13th)

  • 2 consecutive defeats v Leicester and Chelsea.
  • Loss, Draw, Draw, Draw, Loss away. Both teams have scored.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • All defeats came v top 5.

Conclusions

  • With Sheff Utd failing to score that 2nd goal, they should be vulnerable. Remember Burnley have failed to score in only 1 match. Note that both teams have scored in every match away.

Man City v Southampton - 1.1 Man City

  • Match outcome: Man City have won 12/14 home matches while Southampton have lost 10/14 away matches against top-six teams. Man City have won by two or more goals in 13/20 home matches.
  • 6 point gap at the top for Man City.
  • Man City broke their 2 match losing sequence pre/post Champions League with an impressive performance v Crystal Palace. That should continue today against a poor Saints.
  • City failed to score only in a recent home defeat v Wolves. That was the only 0-0 at halftime.
  • 4 defeats and a draw in 5 for Saints.
  • Surprisingly competitive away.Wins v Brighton, Sheffield United, 2-1 loss v Tottenham and 1-1 draw v Wolves.
  • Angles? It should be more misery for Man City unless that Curse of the Champions League returns. Saints have 3/4 losses at home v top 4 which does not augur well today.

Aston Villa v Liverpool - 1.38 Liverpool

  • Match outcome: Liverpool have won 7/9 away matches against promoted teams and they have won by two or more goals in 5/9 such matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 3/5 Aston Villa home matches.
  • Pre-Champions League Liverpool and their manager who is luckier than an Irish Man with a lucky clover who has just thrown a horse's shoe over his left shoulder.
  • All wins bar a draw v Man Utd for Liverpool. 90th minute penalty, 85th minute equaliser and 75th minute penalty in recent matches.
  • 3 wins only for Villa. 2 wins in 3 matches. Win, Draw, Draw, Win at home.
  • Villa have not beaten top 13 sides yet.
  • Angles? Liverpool's lucky run will end at some point. Pre-Champions League, 0-1 win v Sheff Utd and 1-1 v Man Utd. More struggles but eventually breaking through today? Watch out for it! Villa really should not be strong enough for this Liverpool side. Watch out for team news. There were some changes v Sheffield United.

Arsenal v Wolves - 1.81 Arsenal

  • Asian handicap: Arsenal have won by two or more goals in 13/17 home matches against middle-third teams while Wolves have conceded first in 11/16 away matches. Arsenal have won 13/17 home matches.
  • Pre-European club competition for both teams.

Arsenal (5th)

  • Failed to score only once.
  • Unbeaten at home scoring 2-2-3-1-2 goals.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 0-0 at halftime came first match.

Wolves (12th)

  • Only 2 losses v Everton and Chelsea saw Wolves score 2 goals.
  • 5 1-1 draws in 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match, first match.
  • Scored last 9 matches.
  • Clean sheets away v 2nd, 3rd.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This Arsenal are looking decidedly unreliable but are unbeaten at home scoring 2-2-3-1-2 goals.
  • Wolves have scored in their last 9 matches. Can we trust Arsenal to extricate themselves from any problems with their goal scoring. Tuesday night Europa League for them though. Watch for team changes. Europa League for Wolves too. An intriguing match and remember the clean sheets for Wolves v 2nd and 3rd? Hmmm.

17:30 - Watford v Chelsea - 1.7 Chelsea

  • 1st half outcome: Watford have lost the first half in 9/12 home matches against top-six teams while Chelsea have had W/W double results in 12/19 away matches against bottom-six teams. Chelsea have won 9/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Champions League for Chelsea on 5th November 2019.

Watford (20th)

  • No win but getting close. 3 losses, 2 draws, 2 losses, 3 draws.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home 0-0's.

Chelsea (4th)

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only one match, first match.
  • 3-5-4-4 goals scored last 4 away matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 away matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 100% wins v 12th and lower home and away.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Chelsea should eye the win here, even if conceding 2 goals. Pre-Champions League though....
  • Watford's salvage job is down to their defence. No surprise if 0-0 for a while but faith in Chelsea?

SPANISH LA LIGA

15:00 - Levante v Barcelona - 1.39 Barcelona

  • HT/FT: Barcelona have had W/W double results in 7/11 away matches against middle-third teams and they have won 16/20 such matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/11 Levante home matches.
  • Local derby of sorts. Barcelona also pre-Champions League.

Levante (11th)

  • Only 4 wins, 2 at home and 2 away.
  • Win, Win, Draw, Draw, Loss at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 6.
  • Not played top 6 at home.
  • 4 of 5 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Barcelona (1st)

  • 5 consecutive wins, keeping 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away wins to nil.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Lost to 5th and 7th away.
  • 2+ goals scored in all matches v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • A local derby, and pre-Champions League. Barcelona have been guilty in the past of resting key players but will they in a derby?
  • So please watch team news. On form, Barcelona should score 2+ goals and that should be enough v an inconsistent Levante at home.

20:00 - Real Madrid v Betis - 1.35 Real Madrid

  • Match outcome: Real Madrid have won 9/11 home matches while Real Betis have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 trips to Big Two teams. Real Betis have lost 6/9 away matches against Big Two teams.
  • Champions League bound Real Madrid.
  • Only 1 loss for Real was a pre-Champions League 1-0 loss to Mallorca away.
  • 4 consecutive home wins scoring 3-2-4-5 goals.
  • Real have conceded all home matches 2nd half.
  • Real Betis ended a run of 4 without a win with a win last match.
  • Away they are poor, 4 losses and a draw.
  • Angles. Betis conclusively lose to top 7 away. Check team news for Real Madrid who, if at their best, will score 2+ goals today and that should be enough

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:00 - Bologna v Inter - 2.12 Inter

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/10 Bologna home matches and in 7/10 Inter Milan away matches against middle-third teams. Inter Milan have won the first half in 7/10 away matches.
  • Bologna's only 3 wins came v the bottom 3.
  • 1-2 loss and 2-2 draw v 3rd and 4th at home.
  • Inter are Champions League bound.
  • But their only loss came v Juventus recently. They scored and conceded in their last 5 matches. 5/5 wins away scoring 2+ goals.
  • Angles? Inter don't seem affected by the Champions League. Bologna's losses have only been 1 goal in it losses which may be why Inter's odds are relatively high as compared to their position and Bologna's only 1 win in last 7.
  • I could see a 2-1, 2-2, 1-2 here.

19:45 - Torino v Juventus - 1.61 Juventus

  • 2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 11/12 Torino FC home matches against top-six teams while Juventus have drawn the first half in 5/8 away matches against middle-third teams. Torino FC have drawn the first half in 6/10 home matches against top-six teams.
  • Turin derby so really just a look at the Head to heads.
  • 0-1 Juventus, 0-1 Juventus and 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads should give you an idea as to expectations. Juventus came from behind last head to head.
  • Do remember, Champions League for Juventus. They did miss Mandzukic and have been resting Ronaldo so a team news check for the clear better side is a must.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

12:00 - Sirius v Kalmar FF - 2.14 Kalmar

  • 1st half outcome: Sirius have drawn the first half in 8/13 home matches against bottom-six teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 13/20 Kalmar FF away matches. Kalmar FF have drawn the first half in 6/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Norrkoping v Djurgardens - 2.2 Djurgardens

  • Match outcome: Norrkoping have won 9/10 home matches and they have won the first half in 8/10 home matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 10/15 Djurgarden away matches against top-six teams.
  • It's simple. If Djurgardens win, they win the title. Indeed, a draw sees the title win.
  • A win for Norrkoping sees them possibly take 4th spot.
  • Since 16th May, both of these sides have been solid. 3 losses v 2 losses. It will be a battle for Djurgardens. No real point in researching given that it is clear what they need.

Hammarby v Hacken - 1.41 Hammarby

  • Match outcome: Hammarby IF have won 11/12 home matches while BK Hacken have lost 6/8 away matches against top-six teams. Hammarby IF have had W/W double results in 11/13 home matches.
  • Must win for Hammarby. Dead rubber for Hacken. If Hammarby win, they could win the title on goal difference only if Djurgardens lose and Malmo draw.
  • Key elements to look for? Hammarby tend to score before halftime.
  • 8 consecutive home wins. No defeat in 14 at home, scoring in all 14 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 13 home matches.
  • Hammarby lost 2-0 away at Hacken earlier.
  • Only 1 win in 7 for Hacken.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away in contrast with Hammarby.
  • Not beaten top 8 away.
  • Angles? Must wins tend to win...right? Especially playing a team who don't need to win. Goal before halftime usually expected.

Orebro v Malmo FF - 1.25 Malmo

  • 1st goal: Orebro have conceded first in 7/11 home matches against top-six teams while Malmo FF have won 9/10 away matches against bottom-half teams. Malmo FF have had W/W double results in 6/10 away matches against bottom-half teams.
  • Dead rubber v Must win here. A win could see Malmo win.
  • 7 clean sheets in 8 matches for Malmo.
  • 2+ goals conceded by Orebro in their last 4 matches.
  • 14 wins, 2 draws and a loss for Malmo v 8th and lower.
  • Only 1 home win for Orebro v the top 11.
  • Angles? Must wins tend to win? Do remember that Malmo can create 0-0's at halftime but breakthrough 2nd half. So note that.

IFK Goteborg v Ostersunds FK - 1.59 IFK

  • 1st goal: IFK Goteborg have scored first in 7/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Ostersunds have lost the first half in 7/9 away matches against top-half teams. Ostersunds have lost by two or more goals in 6/8 away matches against top-half teams.
  • Dead rubber I feel here as Ostersunds goal difference, as dire as it is, is twice as better as 14th placed Falkenbergs who would be level on points and out of the bottom 3 with a win. IFK have nothing to play for.

Helsingborgs v Elfsborg - 2.54 Helsingborgs

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/12 IF Elfsborg away matches against bottom-half teams and +3.5 goals in 6/11 IF Elfsborg such matches. Helsingborg have lost the first half in 4/5 home matches against top-half teams.

AIK v Sundsvall - 1.7 AIK

  • Match outcome: AIK Solna have won 10/12 home matches against bottom-six teams and they have won by two or more goals in 8/12 such matches. GIF Sundsvall have conceded first in 13/19 away matches against top-six teams.

Falkenbergs v AFC Utd - 1.84 Falkenbergs

  • HT/FT: AFC United have had L/L double results in 9/14 away matches and they have lost 11/14 away matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Falkenberg home matches.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

18:00 - Benfica v Rio Ave - 1.27 Benfica

  • Match outcome: Benfica have won 15/16 home matches against top half non-Big Three teams while Rio Ave have lost 9/10 away matches against Big Three teams. Rio Ave have lost by two or more goals in 7/10 away matches against Big Three teams.
  • Champions League for Benfica on the 5th November.

Benfica (1st)

  • 6 consecutive wins.
  • All wins bar a loss v Porto.
  • 7 clean sheets this season.
  • Not played 3rd-12th at home.

Rio Ave (7th)

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Win, Draw away.
  • 1-0 losses v 2nd and 3rd (away) and play 1st today.

Conclusions

  • Rio Ave might keep it tight but Benfica should eventually out. Benfica certainly should not be conceding 2 goals today. Do remember the Pre-Champions League status.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - RB Leipzig v Mainz - 1.39 RB

  • 1st half outcome: RB Leipzig have won the first half in 7/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while FSV Mainz 05 have had L/L double results in 7/9 away matches against top-six teams. RB Leipzig have scored first in 8/11 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Leipzig (6th)

  • No win in 4 matches.
  • Do remember their recent run of winless performances at 1.6 or thereabouts.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Win, Draw, Loss, Draw at home.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played teams 10th and lower at home.

Mainz (13th)

  • No draw.
  • Loss, Loss, Loss, Win, Loss away.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 9 matches and last 5 away.
  • 100% defeats v top 7.
  • 7 goals conceded away came last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • Leipzig have been vulnerable at 1.6 odds and pre-Champions League. They do though play a Mainz with 100% defeats v the top 7 and with no clean sheets.
  • Trust Leipzig?

Dortmund v Wolfsburg - 1.57 Dortmund

  • Match outcome: B. Dortmund have won 9/10 home matches against top-six teams while Wolfsburg have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 trips to top-six teams. Wolfsburg have conceded first in 13/17 away matches against top-six teams.

Dortmund (6th)

  • Only 1 loss came away v Union Berlin.
  • 3 Desmond 2-2's ended with a 1-0 win and a 0-0. Failed to score only last match.
  • Champions League bound Dortmund.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Not played 2nd - 8th at home.
  • 8 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Wolfsburg (4th)

  • Unbeaten.
  • 5 draws in 7 matches though. Failed to score that 2nd goal in 7 matches now. Could pay the price, albeit Dortmund have suddenly stopped scoring 2 goals.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Not played the top 6 away.
  • All wins v 11th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Both sides have European club competition. Dortmund suddenly stopped scoring 2 goals last 2 matches. Wolf haven't scored 2 in 7 matches now but are unbeaten and look layable if scoring first (cover 0-1  given their unbeaten sequence).
  • A hint the Wolf have had a soft opening set of fixtures as they have not met top 6 away yet.
  • Note 3/4 Dortmund goals at home came 2nd half. Favour the Yellow Submarine but watch the market and check for team news pre-Champions League.

Werder Bremen v Freiburg - 2 Werder

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 W. Bremen home matches against top-six teams and in 7/8 SC Freiburg away matches against middle-third teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 10/17 W. Bremen home matches.

Werder Bremen (12th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 2+ goals scored in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 4 consecutive score draws, 3 were 2-2.
  • Both teams scored in all bar 1 match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Not played top 6 at home.

Freiburg (3rd)

  • Both teams scored in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Win, Win, Win, Loss away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Not played 6th - 13th away.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but gaps in form may cloud this.
  • Both teams could score today. We may see 2 goals from Werder. If they lead 2-0, they look layable.

Eintracht Frankfurt v Bayern Munich - 1.44 Bayern

  • 1st goal: E. Frankfurt have conceded first in 7/10 home matches against top-six teams while Bayern have won the first half in 11/18 away matches. Bayern have scored first in 8/9 away matches against top-half teams.
  • Oh, no, not another pre-Champions League match for Bayern! The last one saw them cock it up, 2-0 up to Augsburg. Final score? 2-2.
  • Frankfurt themselves are in Europa League action.
  • 3 losses for Frankfurt came away. They scored and conceded in all bar 2 matches.
  • WWDDW (W-win, D-draw) at home. 2+ goals scored in their last 4 home matches.
  • Frankfurt have scored in every match.
  • Frankfurt have yet to meet the top 4 at home. Bayern are 2nd.
  • Only 1 loss for Bayern came v Hoffenheim at home. Both teams scored in 6 of their last 7 matches with just that single Bayern loss.
  • Bayern have scored in every match.
  • 3-1-3-2 goals scored away by Bayern.
  • Angles? Both teams have scored in every match this season. This could be a stumbler for Bayern Munich. Check team news. They have put out weaker sides pre-Champions League before. Frankfurt look solid at home. An interesting match to monitor.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

18:45 - Sparta Rotterdam v PSV - 1.86 PSV

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 5/5 Sparta R'dam home matches and in 11/12 PSV away matches against middle-third teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 3/5 Sparta R'dam home matches.

Sparta (10th)

  • 2 clusters of 2 losses in the last 7 matches.
  • 3 wins and a loss v Ajax at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3 of 4 defeats came v the top 5.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

PSV (3rd)

  • Only 2 losses came last 2 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • PSV have Europa League coming up but I think they can arrest a 2 match losing run WITHOUT scoring! Sparta are newly promoted and importantly for me lost to Ajax and 3/4 defeats came v the top 5 where PSV reside.
  • On the stats, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:45 - AZ Alkmaar v FC Twente - 1.34 AZ Alkmaar

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 3/5 Twente away matches and +2.5 goals in 4/5 Twente away matches. AZ Alkmaar have won 11/14 home matches against top half non-Big Two teams.

AZ (2nd)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Win, Loss at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in all bar 1 home matches.
  • Failed to score i only 1 match.
  • Unbeaten v 10th and lower.

Twente (9th)

  • 4 losses in their last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 9/11 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded last 7 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 away.
  • Not played top 7 away.
  • 8 of 10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Twente have yet to meet the top 7 away so there is a gap in form there.
  • AZ have Europa League on Thursday.
  • AZ do have 2+ goals at home so note that if Twente score first. Twente do tend to keep it tight until the 2nd half so watch that as well.