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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, November 24, 2017

An interesting set of matches today. West Ham are still an unknown and Moyes will be stamping his largely defensive authority on the Hammers soon. They were vulnerable to 2-goal-a-game Watford and meet a similar side in Leicester. Not a match for me to consider unless via the in-play stats. I would shortlist the St Etienne match given Strasbourg have conceded last 11 matches. It should present a good opportunity for a positive result St Etienne. AZ should be eyeing 3 points today against a Twente conceding 3 goals for fun. If Rangers continue to score 2 goals away, that should be enough but what to make of that shocking 0-2 loss to Hamilton last match? In the Dutch Eerste Divisie, I like to shortlist matches where goals before halftime; over 2.5 goals; both teams to score has a chance, so read the research and shortlist those.
Live chat? Well it is a busy weekend and I would be keener to spend the time researching as many weekend matches as possible. I do like tonight's matches and if online (note the 'if') I will tweet.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - West Ham v Leicester - 2.74 West Ham

  • New managers for both teams so head to heads are irrelevant.

West Ham (18th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Dire start for Moyes with a 2-0 loss v Watford.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 3 losses in 4 at home.
  • No home draw.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • All 6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Leicester (12th)

  • 3 draws and a win away in their last 4 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches. Did not score v Man City. That is not unexpected. A good recent scoring record may haunt Moyes today.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • All defeats have come against the top 6 only.

Conclusions

  • A hard match to read given the new managers for both sides. What I do like is Leicester's recent scoring run of 2 a game. No disgrace or surprise that Leicester did not score against Man City.
  • Moyes's stamp on West Ham will likely be gradual. I suspect Leicester could score today but bar that West Ham are unreadable. Another team with a 2 a goal habit, Watford, scored their brace against West Ham and I fear the Hamsters are vulnerable to another attacking side. This is, mind you, Moyes first home match as manager and he may deliberately lurch to an ultra defensive set up.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:45 - St Etienne v Strasbourg - 1.77 St Etienne

  • I don't really like French Ligue 1 but as Strasbourg are newly promoted we may see a weakness from them.

St Etienne (7th)

  • Failed to score in 3 of 4 matches.
  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 2 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 11th and lower.
  • Yes failed to score last 2 at home but those were v top 8 teams.

Strasbourg (18th)

  • Only 1 loss in 6 but 3 score draws in those matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 11 matches and last 7 away.
  • 13 of 15 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This presents an opportunity for St Etienne to get a result here. They are unbeaten at home v 11th and lower and Strasbourg are having trouble getting the win away.
  • Strasbourg are also conceding regularly and I expect them to concede today despite St Etienne failing to score in their last 2 home matches.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on St Etienne.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Hannover v Stuttgart - 2.42 Hannover

  • 1-0 Hannover in the most recent head to head.

Hannover (8th)

  • All 4 losses came in their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice so expect at least a goal today.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • All 6 over 2.5 goals matches came within the last 6 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Beat 10th and 12th away from home and play 11th today WITH home advantage.

Stuttgart (11th)

  • All wins came at home.
  • Lost all away matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals away in all bar 1 match.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • 9 of 13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On form this looks an opportunity for Hannover to get the 3 points. They are beating teams around Stuttgart's position in the league away from home so logic suggests that with home advantage they should have a chance today.
  • Stuttgart will win an away match at some point. But they are conceding 2+ goals away. If that continues tonight, lay Stuttgart if Stutthgart scores first.
  • Watch out if 0-0 at halftime. Stuttgart concede heavily in the 2nd half.
  • Hannover are on an over 2.5 goals run at present so do not expect a 0-0.
  • I must add here that the market cannot split the teams. We can make an argument for Hannover on form, but the market tells us this could be tight.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - AZ v Twente - 1.5 AZ

  • 2-2, 1-2, 2-1 in AZ's favour in recent head to heads.

AZ (3rd)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • No home draw.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3-2 and 2-1 wins at home v 15th and 17th.
  • 10% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Twente (16th)

  • No draw sees all defeat bar 3 wins at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets came in those wins.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 3-0-3-4-4 goals conceded recently. If AZ have their scoring boots on, they have a real chance here.
  • No win at halftime away.
  • Lost to 1st and 4th away.
  • Opponents have scored first in 5/6 away.

Conclusions

  • Twente are on a dire run of form and if they cannot defensively react to recently conceding 3-0-3-4-4 goals, they will be punished by an AZ team who have 4 consecutive wins and scoring 2+ goals v 15th and lower.
  • Twente are conceding 2+ v top 7 away.
  • On form, AZ should win and that is how I will enter the match. Note 70% of AZ goals at home were scored 2nd half.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market though based mostly on Twente's poor defence.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Dundee v Rangers - 1.58 Rangers

  • 1-2 Rangers and 2-1 Dundee in the last 2 head to heads at Dundee.

Dundee

  • Only 2 wins came at home v St Johnstone and Hearts.
  • Only 1 clean sheet came last home match, a 0-0.
  • No win in 6 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Lost 4-1 to Rangers already this season.
  • v top 4, scored and conceded in 4/5 matches.

Rangers

  • Only 3 defeats and shockingly lost to Hamilton in their last home match 0-2.
  • Unbeaten away from home though.
  • Only 3 clean sheets and failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each match away.
  • Unbeaten away. Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • 100% over 2.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • Dundee did win the last home head to head v Rangers but Rangers have already beaten Dundee 4-1 this season.
  • If Rangers continue to score their 2 goals a game away from home, that should be enough for the win today. But it was a headscratcher 0-2 loss for Rangers in their last home match. That came out of the blue. Was it due to some players being on International duty?
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Dundee.
  • Dundee tend to score and concede v teams albeit in defeat, so this suggests we lay Dundee if Dundee lead.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Celta Vigo v Leganes - 1.95 Celta Vigo

  • 0-2 Celta in a previous head to head this year.

Celta Vigo (13th)

  • 3 losses in their last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 3-0-3 goals scored at home last 3 matches. Failed to score v Atl Madrid.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not beaten any team above them home or away.
  • Scored and conceded in 7/8 matches home and away v teams 15th and higher.
  • All wins v 15th and lower.
  • 6 home goals scored 15th-30th minute.
  • Scored first in 5/6 at home.

Leganes (8th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Failed to score in their last 2 matches.
  • Halftime scores have been either 0-0 or 1-0/0-1.
  • All wins, either 1-0 or 2-0, came v teams 14th and lower.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Leganes tend to win only to nil and v 14th and lower. Celta Vigo are 13th.
  • Celta Vigo though tend to score and concede. SO.....if Leganes cannot keep a clean sheet, they tend not to win.
  • Note that Celta have scored 3-0-3 goals at home in their last 3 matches. That I think may swing this match into Celta's favour.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE (JULIPER LEAGUE)

19:00 - Fortuna Sittard v Go Ahead Eagles - 1.7 Fortuna

  • Head to heads tend to have been shared in recent matches.

Fortuna Sittard (3rd)

  • 4 of 4 defeats have come in the last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches including last 2 aways (defeats).
  • 5 home wins, a draw and a loss so confident at home.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v 1st in the league.
  • Scored 10 goals in both the first half and second half at home.
  • Scored first in all home matches.

Go Ahead Eagles (11th)

  • Only 4 defeats but did lose their last 2 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 11 matches this season.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 away match.
  • Not played top 3 away but lost to 4th.
  • Not won to nil.

Conclusions

  • The key stat for Go Ahead is not winning to nil this season, so if they score first, logic dictates we lay Go Ahead.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Fortuna have scored 50% of goals in each half at home.
  • We may not see a trading angle today as Fortuna have a 100% record for scoring first at home.

19:00 - Cambuur v Den Bosch - 1.6 Cambuur

  • Den Bosch have won the last 2 league head to heads but that is not what the market thinks.

Cambuur (16th)

  • Only 1 home win, a 1-0, came last home match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • All 0-0's at halftime have not ended 0-0 at fulltime.
  • Only scored 2 goals once at home and still did not win.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats came v top 10.

Den Bosch

  • Unbeaten in 8 matches and yet Cambuur are the strong favourites?
  • Unbeaten in 4 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored in each of their last 10 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower.
  • 6 of 9 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • This is a strange market. One team is unbeaten in 8 matches. The other has only 1 home win. One is unbeaten in 4 away, the other has scored 2 goals only once at home.
  • One is a 5.9 outsider, the other 1.6 home favourites. The market does not match the form here. There must be a reason why Cambuur's odds are so short but the form tells us Den Bosch look the team to be with.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

 19:00 - MVV Maastricht v Helmond Sport - 1.91 MVV

  • 2-2 and 2-0 MVV in the last 2 head to heads.

MVV (12th)

  • All defeats have come within the last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime.
  • Not beaten at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss v 3rd at home.

Helmond Sport (18th)

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 10 both teams to score matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 away loss; only 1 away win.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • MVV are an odds on favourite suddenly losing.
  • Both teams have failed to score in only 3 matches. We may see both teams score.
  • I would favour MVV on home form, despite that recent losing sequence. They only lost to 3rd in the league at home.
  • Do watch though as Helmond tend to lose at home!

19:00 - De Graafschap v FC Eindhoven - 1.68 De Graaf

  • De Graaf have won the last 2 home head to heads.

De Graaf (6th)

  • Only 2 defeats did come at home.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 and last 6 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home, no 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

FC Eindhoven (8th)

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 away match.
  • 10 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Note the strong scoring 2nd half patterns for both teams. So if 0-0 at halftime, expect 2nd half goals.
  • I could see both teams scoring today.
  • Despite the strong 2nd half scoring pattern, De Graaf are yet to have a 0-0 at halftime and FC Eindhoven have only had the one 0-0 at halftime so if you want, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.